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Post by bobtailnag on May 5, 2022 14:58:09 GMT -5
Looking at Nest and noticed she has never run fast - or had to - in any of her races. At every point of call in every race she was never fast enough to break the 12 second barrier - :24, :48, 1:12 etc.
Looking at Yuugirl's last race in the Fantasy at OP I see calls :22-4, :47-3 and 1:11-1 and she went coast-to-coast to win. One has to assume that Nest could run just as fast as any in here but if we don't really know if she could carry that kind of speed that far. Echo Zulu can and Kathleen O is one of the best 3-year old stayers I've seen in many years. I'm going to make the trip to the track formerly known as Fairmount Park and place a few wagers on the Oaks/Derby double - Zulu and Kate with Barrio, Simple, Mo and Messy. Might toss in Zozo and Cyber and if I do I'll let you know.
Thinking seriously in trading Zulu with Nostalgic so consider it done.
On second thought I'll keep both.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,360
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Post by 5wide on May 5, 2022 15:44:30 GMT -5
Hidden Connection, a nose behind EZ last out also eligible to improve.
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Post by bobtailnag on May 5, 2022 16:55:27 GMT -5
"Hidden Connection, a nose behind EZ last out also eligible to improve."
Improve, yes, but I don't think she'll win. Looking at Hidden's numbers her first 3 speed numbers (Yes I'm actually using speed numbers witch I usually don't) and you see 88 89 87 80 90. The only change you see is the noticeable drop in the Rach Alex two races back then a return to her usual level in the high 80s. Then look at Zulus 98 99 96 103 90. After winning the BCJuvFil with that 103 she went to the farm for 5 months then came back to win the FG Oaks with a 90 - a sizable drop. If she is healthy and in form we can expect top see at least a high 90 to a possible 105. Hiddin's 90 is her highest and Zulu's lowest.
If Hidden can jump up that high tomorrow she'll be in the mix and if mine doesn't win I hope yours does. Never let someone else's opinion change yours unless you're really convinced he's right.
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Post by oriolegirl on May 5, 2022 17:46:49 GMT -5
Bobtailnag,
Don't know what you're looking at but Nest and Kathleen O are the fastest horses in the field, whether you use Brisnet, Beyer or Thorograph. You will catch the double if Kathleen O wins. 😁. Personally, I hate Echo Zulu. Good luck with her.
Steve
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turffan
UpInClass Member
Posts: 600
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Post by turffan on May 5, 2022 19:07:41 GMT -5
I’m wondering if Secret Oath is the forgotten horse in the Oaks. She blossomed this winter at OP and ran pretty well against some decent colts in the Arkansas Derby despite some trouble at the start. Her stalking style from the 1 post looks enticing.
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Post by soundsofsaratoga on May 5, 2022 19:17:20 GMT -5
My thoughts on the oaks I think Secret Oath is being totally over looked. I will be wheeling her in the Oaks/derby double and keying her with Nest Kathleen O and echo Zulu. Good luck to all.
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Post by bobtailnag on May 5, 2022 19:44:36 GMT -5
Steve, welcome back. I never implied Nest wasn't fast. She certainly is. I was trying to point out that she has yet to face a couple of E8 early speed types and if she intends to maintain her style to set a couple of lengths behind the leaders then take over down the stretch, she'll have to run something like :22-4 and :44-3 instead of her usual :24-1 and :48-3 and carry that speed all the way to the wire.
" she has never run fast - or had to - in any of her races." I stand by that statement. I never implied that she couldn't, only that she hasn't. As far as I know she could pop out of the gate on fire and never look back. I hope one of us has a winner.
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Post by oriolegirl on May 5, 2022 21:40:25 GMT -5
Thanks bobtailnag. I didn't mean to sound so harsh. I get your drift. I think it's a moot point because Nest won't be on the lead.
My take on the race is that it's Kathleen O's race to lose. Nest is a very tough competitor as is Secret Oath. Venti Valentine is my bomber especially if it comes up wet. Also throwing Nostalgic (how can I leave out my man Bill Mott) and Shahama, shipping in from Meydan. She supposedly has been looking fabulous.
I'm fading Echo Zulu. If she wins, I'll have egg on my face and no money in my pocket!😁
Good Luck
Steve
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Post by cherokeescot on May 5, 2022 21:59:00 GMT -5
Has there been a deeper Oaks field in the history of UIC ? If anybody had said to me at the end of last year that unbeaten 2yo champ Echo Zulu would be third favorite at 4-1 for the Oaks I would have thought they were crazy
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Post by diablo313 on May 6, 2022 12:00:03 GMT -5
Does anyone know the average Oaks/KD double payout? Seems I recall it not being very high (spread tickets don't cover it)?
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Post by project96 on May 6, 2022 12:13:26 GMT -5
I like ECHO ZULU, but I have a strong feeling that SHAHAMA will do some damage.
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Post by Badactor on May 6, 2022 19:07:26 GMT -5
I’m wondering if Secret Oath is the forgotten horse in the Oaks. She blossomed this winter at OP and ran pretty well against some decent colts in the Arkansas Derby despite some trouble at the start. Her stalking style from the 1 post looks enticing. BINGO! |
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Post by Badactor on May 6, 2022 19:08:08 GMT -5
My thoughts on the oaks I think Secret Oath is being totally over looked. I will be wheeling her in the Oaks/derby double and keying her with Nest Kathleen O and echo Zulu. Good luck to all. And BINGO! |
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Post by Badactor on May 6, 2022 19:10:22 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2022 1:29:17 GMT -5
Mr.Lukas looked so dapper, that should have been a clue. Congrats to him and his horse for sure.
I still think the AR Derby was the worst one in many years so my confidence level for cyberknife hasn't changed a whole lot, though I have tons of friends playing him to win.
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Post by spiderjohn on May 7, 2022 7:28:06 GMT -5
Red board alert!
I had a losing day going until Secret Oath/Nest Oaks——two P3s, the Oaks tri(1-4/1-4/all 50-1 3rd!) and live with $2 double 1/all today + $20 dds 1/3-10-12-16. Did not bet Oath to win(?!?).
Like 16-3-10-12 in Derby
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