Messier

[mattcoll]

You'd feel silly if another front running Baffert* horse won and wasn't on your tickets, now wouldn't you?

Runs near the front and will make his own race?  Check
10F Breeding?  A Front running Empire Maker- see Meister, Bode....Check 
Foundation? 2y/o racing and 3y/o route racing.....Check
Drugs?  who knows, but he won't be out-drugged by anyone else....Check

Negatives....west coast was a small field, low quality bubble without easy comps to the rest of the country, and the premier prep race was won by a maiden winner coming off just a single 6F win.  He has lost three races in the deep stretch and is adding distance.  Not actually trained by Bob Baffert anymore. Might go off shorter than 8-1.

I'll play to WIN and underneath a few horses in exactas.

[oriolegirl]

You can have him. I'm ditching him and Taiba.
Good Luck
Steve

[shoes]

Discounting arguably the two fastest horses in the race depending upon the figs used is not something I am taking lightly. Messier is a different case than Taiba, given his solid foundation. Leaning to using him at this point.

[cindyloujazz]

shoes,
You beat me to the punch. I will add the last 8 winners of the Derby did it in front running style. DQ's in 2019, 2021. But still. What's to stop JV from doing the same thing this year as last year, go right to the front and keep on going?
I have a feeling (more my hope), some one will catch and pass him.
I'm using him.

[eye123]

May 3, 2022 18:40:47 GMT -5 cindyloujazz said:

shoes,
You beat me to the punch. I will add the last 8 winners of the Derby did it in front running style. DQ's in 2019, 2021. But still. What's to stop JV from doing the same thing this year as last year, go right to the front and keep on going?
I have a feeling (more my hope), some one will catch and pass him.
I'm using him.

I'm thinking there are a few things which may hinder a repeat of last years ride. One is Summer is Tomorrow. Watched all his replays, and where they tried rating him in some earlier races, the last few are pedal to the metal out of the gate. One announcer mentioned him as "cheap speed". So he will try for the lead. I'd also think Pletcher with Pioneer of Medina will also go from the gate. With Mo Donegal's kick late I think he'd want to insure a quick pace...and Pioneer is fast enough to put pressure on from the get go. Then there is Classic Causeway. Don't know what happened in his last...but his best chance would be to take the lead and not look back. Then throw in Epicenter,Taiba,White Abarrio and Zozos....pretty interesting to see how they sort out rounding the first turn.

[ozzy]

I'm warming up to Messier a bit and think I'll use defensively. I think he certainly needed the SA Derby, his first in 8 weeks and comes into this one ready to fire. Johnny V will have him up close for sure as he has won the last 2 that way and the question will then be is he good enough.

Weather has me ticked but hopeful we will only have to deal with the rain on Friday and things will be clear for Saturday. After the 2019 rain and DQ, September Derby in 2020, and last year's fiasco after the fact, we are due for a perfect Derby for all to enjoy! I'll be down starting tomorrow so if any UICers are in town, look me up in the paddock.

[quickcall]

If you want to win a big race, you have to bet the Baffert horse(s). He wins them.

I always bet my son’s birthday numbers in the Derby, otherwise, I wouldn’t bet a race that a Baffert horse is in. I’m glad none of his horses are in my son’s birthday numbers.

Good luck to everyone.

[eye123]

I was trying to come up with just how fast Summer is Tomorrow really might be. (or how slow in comparison to the US contingent) Using the Trakus times for March 26th at Meydan comparing his time at the 800 meter mark to Life is Good who ran later in the card. Summer is Tomorrow had a faster time. Think maybe fast enough here to get the lead from the four post.

tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_MeydanA.aspx?EventID=201579&Date=3/26/2022&Type=TBRED&Venue=14&DisplayType=1

tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_MeydanA.aspx?EventID=201583&Date=3/26/2022&Type=TBRED&Venue=14&DisplayType=1

[nolazag]

Seems like one of the logical choices for all the reasons cited by Matt and others. Will be very tough if he moves forward off SA derby effort.

[docd]

May 3, 2022 14:16:50 GMT -5 mattcoll said:

You'd feel silly if another front running Baffert* horse won and wasn't on your tickets, now wouldn't you?

Runs near the front and will make his own race?  Check
10F Breeding?  A Front running Empire Maker- see Meister, Bode....Check 
Foundation? 2y/o racing and 3y/o route racing.....Check
Drugs?  who knows, but he won't be out-drugged by anyone else....Check

Negatives....west coast was a small field, low quality bubble without easy comps to the rest of the country, and the premier prep race was won by a maiden winner coming off just a single 6F win.  He has lost three races in the deep stretch and is adding distance.  Not actually trained by Bob Baffert anymore. Might go off shorter than 8-1.

I'll play to WIN and underneath a few horses in exactas.

Or "how did I not have Johnny V. on my ticket"
Agree.
Steve you have to use them,don't have to like them

[oriolegirl]

Doc,
I don't like either one!! Yes they'll be on bottoms of tri tickets but if either one wins, I won't!
Steve

[docd]

OK ,I thought you meant a total toss.

You have to admit the chance of one or both ITM is quite high.That's what I'm saying.

[bitowisdom]

All I learned from above is main interest of trainers and jockeys? I usually consider the horse only when I handicap a race. After all, they do the running!

[damascus]

Messier is only batting .500 for a supposed top flight horse. way way small fields usually with only a single serious horse to run against. I just have a feel that the California races are curiously overated in terms of the speed ratings coming out of them.

HAPPY JACK's 97 bris speed rating from santa anita derby puts him above White Abarrio, Cyberknife im sorry i dont see him better than the winners of FLA and ARK derbys and he was never in the santa anita derby. Also there will be much tighter and closer look at the Yaffert horses this year knowing the drug test fails of the past.....

I am with Steve and just not that impressed

[Badactor]

My man Damascus...
Darn it, now I have to look at Happy Jack!

[mysaladdays]

I still use dosage stuff as one of many handicapping angles, and with 40 dosage points Messier must stay on my ticket. Golden Soul, Battle of Midway, Mr. Big News and Proud Citizen taught me well. 

Not sure I would put Messier in the win spot though.  There's a lot more pace pressure in the Derby than the races he has run in.  

Taiba is a toss for me. I didn't fall for Rock-Your-World-has-so-much-potential last year, and same w/Taiba for me this year. He can go ahead and be the 2nd coming but the odds are not great enough for me to take a piece.