I'm looking to develop a few tiny bet/big return strategies. Intend to single Major General in the Pat Day Mile... I'll be depending on you good folks to illuminate the way to a successful and profitable Kentucky Derby Day!
I don't know if this is a strategy .....but at least one wager I'm kind of falling on. (like the guy in the foxhole on the grenade) Keying Tiz the Bomb in the tri in 3rd. Allows multiple top and 2nd's (not having to lean on just two or three on the win end..and hoping for a little chaos ) McPeek,Hernandez home court advantage...and I like what I've seen of Tiz in the replays. His numbers are not great in comparison to others....but feel we might see a forward move here after his last...and need a price somewhere. Taking the likely horses I can do any day of the week.
I feel the best wagering opportunities are the backend of the card and I plan on concentrating my action for the day there. I’ll play the early double using the 4,9 with the 8 primarily as I just have too; (using with 4,6 in verticals). Probably skip the 3rd and 4th and use both CBs in 5th of playing any horizontals.
In all dirt stakes Pick 5 I would use these: 2,4 in Knicks Go/ at first glance I would maybe have to hit all in Pat Day Mile as no real opinion. If forced since I don’t play big tickets on these types of wagers 8,9,10 / 2,5,6,7 in Distaff/ 1,6 in CD/ 3,16 in Derby
In Distaff Race 8 - Bell’s The One needed last, Just One Time a new horse closing and will go between Obligatory or Edgeway to round out
In Race 9, Crown Royal - Red Danger looked awesome schooling and using with 6;7
Race 10 probably singling Aloha West and would use Prevelance underneath in the exacta
In Turf Classic - can’t separate the Chad’s in the Turf Classic with 3,8 and will likely use 4 or 7 as speed in tris
Cyberknife and Epicenter in the Derby and will use some combination of Zandon, Charge It and Zozos for my trifecta tickets
In Race 13 - Candy Tycoon and Storm The Court
In Race 14 - 2 Conspiracy Fact, 13 AE Blow Torch if gets in
Could be a Dallas Stewart late double
Late, tired but first thoughts after initial run through.
In the 8th (Derby City Distaff) I'll go heavy on Kimari (4) especially with Lady Rocket scratched. She also switched back to Rosario who is 3 for 3 on her. I see here being more patiently ridden today in a tough field.
It's quite possible that a Chad Brown runner may win a race or two. :-) Will be playing both of his runners (7) In Italian and (8) Speak of the Devil in the Distaff Turf Mile (Race 5).
Agree that the Pay Day Mile (Race 7)has too many contenders. May just single Jack Christopher (5) to get it over with and not overspend.
In The Turf Classic I am live in Leg 2 of the two-day Pick 3 with (3#) Public Sector, (4) Tribhuvan and (8) Adhamo but not particularly confident on them.
The more I look at the Derby the more confused I get which is why I put in my contest entries early. Still hard to separate Epicenter, Messier, Zandon and Taiba in no particular order though Taiba could be a freak of nature. Can't understand why Zandon is 8-1 at the moment. Many would not surprise me if they "crashed" the trifecta.
A cross between handicapping and gambling. A lot of horseplayers won't use it, saying "if you need the ALL button, you shouldn't play the race."
To me--it is often about trying to fall into something big, that you probably couldn't find studying pps. I use it frequently, mostly in the 3rd spot for tris, and occasionally in p3/4/5s. Twice it has paid off big my way in the Derby, and both times by wheeling an Oaks runner with ALL in the Derby. MIND THAT BIRD was my first score with that wheel, and like the last running, I would have never given MIND THAT BIRD or RICH STRIKE a second look. After watching 3 months of preps this year, I didn't feel much for any of the runners, and I was very strong on SECRET OATH going back in with fillies. NEST was my only real concern. So--I played a $2 SECRET OATH/ALL Oaks/Derby double wheel, and a $1 1-4/1-4/ALL tri wheel in the Oaks. A 50-1 runs 3rd, under a 4-1 and 2-1 for a nice hit. Then I get the shocker of all time when 21 catches the favorites not looking to sneak up the wide open rail(Borel style) to win as a River Downs type runner.
I didn't care for either runner that caused my good fortune--was simply trying to put myself in a good spot to score IF lightning strikes. Sometimes it is all about setting yourself up for that possibility since we will rarely play or handicap these bombs in to the mix. As I mentioned, I loved the Oaks winner and runner-up, and thought the Derby was ripe for an upset(though not the resulting upset). I was shocked by the Oaks tri payoff, and thought that the Oaks/Derby double came back very light compared to the exacta,tri and other multi race wagers. Another plus to being live with ALL in the Derby is that I didn't have to use any big odds runners on top anywhere with Deby wagers. Otherwise it was an up/down two days of racing.
Often I leave the handicapping to gamble for the score---beautiful when it happens......
And the finish of the Derby once again reinforced my thinking that "they call them pinheads for good reason".
Last Edit: May 9, 2022 17:20:09 GMT -5 by spiderjohn