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Post by Badactor on May 3, 2022 9:59:46 GMT -5
I'm looking to develop a few tiny bet/big return strategies. Intend to single Major General in the Pat Day Mile... I'll be depending on you good folks to illuminate the way to a successful and profitable Kentucky Derby Day!  ODDS & ENTRIES |
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Post by UpInClass on May 3, 2022 11:03:41 GMT -5
ENJOY THE GAME... WHO DO YOU LIKE?
Are you looking to play PK3s, PK4s, Exactas, Trifectas... is there a ten cent Super? How do you approach Kentucky Derby Day? It's the inflated pools that brings 'em. It's the UpInClass Players that takes 'em down. Skill & a little luck equals a BIG day!
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,716
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Post by eye123 on May 3, 2022 11:21:39 GMT -5
I don't know if this is a strategy .....but at least one wager I'm kind of falling on. (like the guy in the foxhole on the grenade) Keying Tiz the Bomb in the tri in 3rd. Allows multiple top and 2nd's (not having to lean on just two or three on the win end..and hoping for a little chaos ) McPeek,Hernandez home court advantage...and I like what I've seen of Tiz in the replays. His numbers are not great in comparison to others....but feel we might see a forward move here after his last...and need a price somewhere. Taking the likely horses I can do any day of the week.
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Post by Badactor on May 3, 2022 12:40:53 GMT -5
RACE 4
If
#15 Varatti scratches into the race,
I'll have an opportunity to make good
on a missed Kentucky Derby Future.
Coupled Entry: (9/2)
#1 McLaren Vale
#1A Varatti
BAD~PICKS SAYS...
SINGLE THE COUPLE.
Selection Rated: Unbeatable.
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Post by dblakers on May 3, 2022 13:38:08 GMT -5
If you love #1 Major General at 9/2 make sure you put something to win on him, maybe place also.
I would play the double with race 6. I LOVE #8 Injunction 15-1 ML, Jose Ortiz on him, Lone Speed? I also like #11 Necker Island 6-1 ML, 5 Wins at CD, Loves the track, 2 for 2 in mud.
You could play $10 double 8 and 11/#1 Major General for $20. The return should pretty big.
You could also play a pick 3. 8 and 11/ 1/ ALL (8) cost you $16 for a buck.
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Post by arsignman on May 3, 2022 15:28:18 GMT -5
I think the supers are $1 Derby weekend
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,716
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Post by eye123 on May 3, 2022 15:35:01 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on May 6, 2022 23:04:11 GMT -5
Good Morning & Good Luck.
Happy Kentucky Derby Day! |
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 850
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Post by ozzy on May 6, 2022 23:50:29 GMT -5
I feel the best wagering opportunities are the backend of the card and I plan on concentrating my action for the day there.
I’ll play the early double using the 4,9 with the 8 primarily as I just have too; (using with 4,6 in verticals). Probably skip the 3rd and 4th and use both CBs in 5th of playing any horizontals.
In all dirt stakes Pick 5 I would use these: 2,4 in Knicks Go/ at first glance I would maybe have to hit all in Pat Day Mile as no real opinion. If forced since I don’t play big tickets on these types of wagers 8,9,10 / 2,5,6,7 in Distaff/ 1,6 in CD/ 3,16 in Derby
In Distaff Race 8 - Bell’s The One needed last, Just One Time a new horse closing and will go between Obligatory or Edgeway to round out
In Race 9, Crown Royal - Red Danger looked awesome schooling and using with 6;7
Race 10 probably singling Aloha West and would use Prevelance underneath in the exacta
In Turf Classic - can’t separate the Chad’s in the Turf Classic with 3,8 and will likely use 4 or 7 as speed in tris
Cyberknife and Epicenter in the Derby and will use some combination of Zandon, Charge It and Zozos for my trifecta tickets
In Race 13 - Candy Tycoon and Storm The Court
In Race 14 - 2 Conspiracy Fact, 13 AE Blow Torch if gets in
Could be a Dallas Stewart late double
Late, tired but first thoughts after initial run through.
Best of luck all
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turffan
UpInClass Member
Posts: 600
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Post by turffan on May 7, 2022 9:24:51 GMT -5
Some more or less random thoughts ...
In the 8th (Derby City Distaff) I'll go heavy on Kimari (4) especially with Lady Rocket scratched. She also switched back to Rosario who is 3 for 3 on her. I see here being more patiently ridden today in a tough field.
It's quite possible that a Chad Brown runner may win a race or two. :-) Will be playing both of his runners (7) In Italian and (8) Speak of the Devil in the Distaff Turf Mile (Race 5).
Agree that the Pay Day Mile (Race 7)has too many contenders. May just single Jack Christopher (5) to get it over with and not overspend.
In The Turf Classic I am live in Leg 2 of the two-day Pick 3 with (3#) Public Sector, (4) Tribhuvan and (8) Adhamo but not particularly confident on them.
The more I look at the Derby the more confused I get which is why I put in my contest entries early. Still hard to separate Epicenter, Messier, Zandon and Taiba in no particular order though Taiba could be a freak of nature. Can't understand why Zandon is 8-1 at the moment. Many would not surprise me if they "crashed" the trifecta.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,360
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2022 9:50:13 GMT -5
Cd R2 #3 Unpredictable Bay WP, not as bad as last and has run fast enough to win this . Also had a CD win 24/1 currently.
Will also play him under Surfer dude and Osbourne in exactas.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,360
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2022 10:05:40 GMT -5
Cd R2 #3 Unpredictable Bay WP, not as bad as last and has run fast enough to win this . Also had a CD win 24/1 currently.
Will also play him under Surfer dude and Osbourne in exactas.
Almost. Should have played him under both in the tri.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,360
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2022 10:19:56 GMT -5
r3
Back on turf, show a series of good works. Looks live at 24/1 WP
ex box 3,5,7
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Post by Badactor on May 7, 2022 11:04:39 GMT -5
Varatti scratched.... moved the money to Major General.
EDIT : Major General - a whole lotta nuthin'.  |
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Post by oriolegirl on May 7, 2022 11:22:39 GMT -5
Dell, These are a few I came up with last night. Still not sure what the track condition is going to be.
6th - South Bend. Mott runner should be tighter off his last.
7th - Pappacap. Don't know if Jack Christopher will be ready. Pappacap has the highest wet track Tomlinson I've ever seen! 473!
10th - Reinvestment Risk
11th - Shirls Speight with Santin as the price play.
Derby - not wavering on my top two. Mo Donnegal and White Abarrio. Cyberknife and Simplification to spice up the tri at a price.
Good Luck
Steve
P.S. Taking a stand against Taiba and Messier! If it comes back to bite me in the ass, so be it. That's why it's called gambling!! 😁
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Post by damascus on May 7, 2022 13:29:37 GMT -5
With some spare bucks i am throwing out some idle musing wagers including: $2 exacta Cox Box using only Brad's trio $2 Saudi Special using those two in an exacta box. Sometimes logic is not needed  Dam |
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,684
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Post by docd on May 7, 2022 14:18:55 GMT -5
CD9 Americn Turf G2
I'm using
3 Red Run 15/1,Asmussen Gun Runner with BJ up goes AW2Turf.Looks like a live long shot.Key runner.
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,684
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Post by docd on May 7, 2022 14:35:11 GMT -5
I swear you can't make this up.Eddie O just copied my tickets.His play 3 wps and key exactas 
guess he lost too 
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tc
UpInClass Member
Posts: 2,104
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Post by tc on May 7, 2022 15:55:17 GMT -5
DD into the derby:
R11: public sector & cavalry charge
R12: epicenter & smile happy & crown pride & simplification & classic causeway
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Post by Badactor on May 7, 2022 16:01:20 GMT -5
Finally got a stolen base... The hit by Jackie puts me in scoring position To the 3, 8 and 10. Public Sector, Adhamo and Santin. Don't get thrown out don't get thrown out don't get thrown out SAFE! 
$0.50 PICK 3 ~ 9/3/10 $72.95 |
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,360
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2022 16:19:01 GMT -5
its really an hour and a half between race 11 and 12 ? WTF
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,360
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Post by 5wide on May 7, 2022 16:22:23 GMT -5
Hoping for a minor miracle from Mira Mission.
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Post by Badactor on May 7, 2022 17:19:50 GMT -5
Lucky Sledgehammer play...
Wheel and back wheel Barbara Road.
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Post by spiderjohn on May 9, 2022 16:36:52 GMT -5
The ALL button
A cross between handicapping and gambling. A lot of horseplayers won't use it, saying "if you need the ALL button, you shouldn't play the race."
To me--it is often about trying to fall into something big, that you probably couldn't find studying pps. I use it frequently, mostly in the 3rd spot for tris, and occasionally in p3/4/5s. Twice it has paid off big my way in the Derby, and both times by wheeling an Oaks runner with ALL in the Derby. MIND THAT BIRD was my first score with that wheel, and like the last running, I would have never given MIND THAT BIRD or RICH STRIKE a second look. After watching 3 months of preps this year, I didn't feel much for any of the runners, and I was very strong on SECRET OATH going back in with fillies. NEST was my only real concern. So--I played a $2 SECRET OATH/ALL Oaks/Derby double wheel, and a $1
1-4/1-4/ALL tri wheel in the Oaks. A 50-1 runs 3rd, under a 4-1 and 2-1 for a nice hit. Then I get the shocker of all time when 21 catches the favorites not looking to sneak up the wide open rail(Borel style) to win as a River Downs type runner.
I didn't care for either runner that caused my good fortune--was simply trying to put myself in a good spot to score IF lightning strikes. Sometimes it is all about setting yourself up for that possibility since we will rarely play or handicap these bombs in to the mix. As I mentioned, I loved the Oaks winner and runner-up, and thought the Derby was ripe for an upset(though not the resulting upset). I was shocked by the Oaks tri payoff, and thought that the Oaks/Derby double came back very light compared to the exacta,tri and other multi race wagers. Another plus to being live with ALL in the Derby is that I didn't have to use any big odds runners on top anywhere with Deby wagers. Otherwise it was an up/down two days of racing.
Often I leave the handicapping to gamble for the score---beautiful when it happens......
And the finish of the Derby once again reinforced my thinking that "they call them pinheads for good reason".
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