Kentucky Derby Morning Workout Show

[eye123]

[Badactor]

Let's discuss watching workouts...
What are we looking for? What do you see?

Disclaimer: I have a $1 Exacta interest in this horse,
so I loved everything about the work. Tell me true...

[1hooper]

I thought the work by Zozos minutes before Barber Road was much better.
Barber Road was being asked by the jock and was not straight through the stretch.
Zozos A
Barber Road C

[Badactor]

[Badactor]

[shoes]

I always worry that there may be a confirmation bias to my viewing of works, i.e. I see what I want to see. Still I have been watching them for years and I go back to the impact that Barbaro's work had on me (changed my betting strategy for the better).

I also somewhat discount the commentary that we get on the morning works show and sometimes think that I should watch them with the sound muted given how often they use the same lingo and descriptions. I put more faith in what hooper says because his experience is significant and he's not worried about offending any backers or connections in the way that the on air commentators might be.

Ironic that you mentioned Zozos, because I had the similar impression.

[shoes]

To paraphrase what Mike Welsch, DRF clocker said yesterday:

Zandon’s work was a wow.

Simplification was impressive

Crown Pride looked really good.

Epicenter: “fine, not a wow”

Smile Happy was really lathered up

Cyberknife looked really good though he was told that he always works well.

Zozos looked good.

Echo Zulu- OK

Secret Oath disappointing

Kathleen O- OK

Others he saw were fine no plusses or minuses.

Barber Road was unusual in that they started especially slow then picked it up to finish much faster (sounds like they are reinforcing the closing style).

Again these were just my notes, if you want to hear the actual source material it was from hour #2 of Steve Byk's Monday show.

[Badactor]

Love the John Ortiz interview...

[oriolegirl]

Great stuff shoes. Can you keep those workout comments coming in the next two weeks. Very helpful!
Thanks
Steve

[mysaladdays]

Apr 26, 2022 9:09:31 GMT -5 shoes said:

To paraphrase what Mike Welsch, DRF clocker said yesterday:

Crown Pride looked really good.

What did they say about the stellar workout from Charge It on the 22nd?  Nothing??


Also, seems like nobody really tries to explain some of the (very) major differences between the US horses and the foreign invaders, in this case, Crown Pride.   So I will fill in the blanks.  As True Nicks said about Crown Pride recently: " His pre-Derby workout preparation contrasts with those of his American rivals who typically breeze on a weekly basis. Three days after a six-furlong work in 1:18 3/5 over a wet track at Churchill April 16, he returned to cover a half-mile in :49 4/5 on a fast surface April 19. "



He’s had four works in a week and a half which here is called *unorthodox*.    IMHO,  standing around in the barn, when you are trying to win a major G1 race should be considered unorthordox and doesn't imbue fitness.  LOL   (My conspiracy theory is that nobody in U.S. Racing wants to pay exercise riders for all the extra work days, like Mike deKock and others do.)   I believe this is the problem, actually. (if you remember people were freaking out about how hard he worked Mutbtaahij).

Others pointed out his rather strange break and where CP dumped his rider.....guess what?    There are no bells in Japan when the gates open.   Suddenly, he hears a loud bell, which startled him, he either veers markedly or freaks out.   (You would, too, if suddenly you were on a crosswalk where when the "hand" turned green, you go to step off the curb and hear a very loud bell. )

It would be great if some of the so-called experts would include some of the more nuanced information that fans would like to know. 



And while Im at it, none of the figure makers or PP producers, now that TB racing is obviously international, can seem to generate pace figures for any foreign horses, in the TC races or the Breeders Cup races, nor any kind of speed figures.   I guess it requires some kinda genius that only a rocket scientist with a physics degree could figure out.   If you're making figures and publishing stuff for the U.S. audience, seems like it might cross somebody's mind to do this?     (Dr. Steve Roman had no problem translating beyer and equibase figs to PFs (performance figures) to match his program........and could do it in his sleep.   What gives?

    

[eye123]

Jon White's Strikes:


ZERO STRIKES OR ONE STRIKE

Crown Pride (0 strikes)
Cyberknife (0 strikes)
Early Voting (1 strike, Category 4)
Epicenter (0 strikes)
Messier (1 strike, Category 4)
Morello (1 strike, Category 5)
Simplification (1 strike, Category 4)
Slow Down Andy (1 strike, Category 6)
Smile Happy (1 strike, Category 4)
Tiz the Bomb (0 strikes)
White Abarrio (0 strikes)
Zandon (0 strikes)

TWO STRIKES

Barber Road (Categories 2 and 3)
Pioneer of Medina (Categories 2 and 4)
Un Ojo (Categories 3 and 7)
Summer Is Tomorrow (Categories 2 and 4)
Taiba (Categories 1 and 7)
Zozos (Categories 2 and 7)

THREE OR MORE STRIKES

Charge It (Categories 1, 2 and 7)
Happy Jack (Categories 2, 3, 6 and 7)

PENDING
Tawny Port

[oriolegirl]

Where's Mo Donegal?

[eye123]

Mo Donegal has 1 strike (has not raced at least six times)

[eye123]

I've watched Tiz The Bomb's races.(replays) Turf breeding..nice second to Modern Games in the breeders cup...nice win at Kentucky Downs(McPeek has stated that he would like to take him overseas to run on similar courses (turf) ) What is interesting is that he decided to take the Derby route on dirt(preps) and is running here. I cannot see him winning, but will probably key in verticals (tri,super) with likely others more keen on top end.

[mysaladdays]

Apr 24, 2022 19:50:40 GMT -5 1hooper said:

I thought the work by Zozos minutes before Barber Road was much better.

I like both of these horses so I definitely have confirmation bias.    

I do not however, like Zandon.  And probably not Mo Don. 

Thank you Eye123 for posting up Jon White's Strikes.  I always like to see them every year.  Please update when you get them, I don't use their platform so I never get to see these. 

[mysaladdays]

Apr 26, 2022 20:46:14 GMT -5 eye123 said:

I've watched Tiz The Bomb's races.(replays) Turf breeding..nice second to Modern Games in the breeders cup...nice win at Kentucky Downs(McPeek has stated that he would like to take him overseas to run on similar courses (turf) ) What is interesting is that he decided to take the Derby route on dirt(preps) and is running here. I cannot see him winning, but will probably key in verticals (tri,super) with likely others more keen on top end.

Would be a killer longshot to include on a tri or superfecta ticket for sure. 

Name of the game for KY Derby, for me at least, is to find a high value payout.   There are too many races everyday, across the land, where you can get a $50 or $100 trifecta payout. 

[mysaladdays]

Apr 26, 2022 10:10:21 GMT -5 Badactor said:

Love the John Ortiz interview...

then you will thoroughly enjoy my "nice guy trainer" article I just posted, too.  

He has a great awareness, for lack of a more precise word. 

[Badactor]

[Badactor]

TODD TALK...

[Badactor]

This is the most 'racehorseiest' looking one of the bunch.

[Badactor]

[Badactor]

[Badactor]

Thank you Hooper... Zozos catches the eye.
Will be a big price. Outworked Cyberknife.
...aplogies to madameblum.

[UpInClass]

[Badactor]

[UpInClass]