shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 20, 2022 18:51:43 GMT -5
hoop and anyone else who wants to respond:
I'm looking at Crown Pride and 3 of his 4 great grandsires are Sunday Silence, Seattle Slew, and Kingmambo, the 4th is Japanese :Agnes Tachyon but he is out of Sunday Silence (so one more generation back). Mr. Prospector appears twice in that generation as well along with Miesque, and Last Tycoon and if you go back 5th generation you see Secretariat, Chris Evert, Nijinsky and Nureyev.
I know most of the contenders' pedigrees look pretty good, but as this one contains so many of my favorite influences (even if many of them are pretty far back), I'm kinda intrigued. Should I be?
I checked this one out after Sid Fernando talked about him on Steve Byk's show today.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 20, 2022 20:05:18 GMT -5
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Post by shoes on Apr 20, 2022 20:12:38 GMT -5
Thanks hoop. It's my understanding that he is at CD already so should get a couple of works in- I think. |
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 20, 2022 20:50:52 GMT -5
Meant to type Chief's Crown is in the sire's female family.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 21, 2022 17:28:22 GMT -5
I love seeing road to the KY Derby giving foreign runners a chance at the gate, and believe the Japanese road to the derby will eventually result in a 1st or 2nd in at least one of our TC races. They are very keen on our dirt racing and its a compliment that they want to participate. And their preparation and intent, by arriving early to Churchill is commendable. And their horses competing in large fields often over 12 horses, to my mind, puts them ahead of SA runners in a 5-6 horse race. However, looking thru the very long list of UAE Derby winners, that race requires a completely different set of pedigree and running styles. Horses like Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn, Plus Que, Lani, Mubtaahij, Regal Ransom, et al simply do not have the dirt speed to be competitive in the KY Derby and that seems apparent in their pedigrees. These are stamina bred guys and they are not trained and conditioned to burst out of the gate a high speed or run gate to wire like an E type dirt horse, etc. ( Appleby smartly didn't enter Rebel's Romance into the KY Derby.) I believe that any future winners of the KY Derby will come out of a completely different race, but not the UAE. I also hope they will stick around for The Belmont and Preakness. Out of the list of horses who ran in the UAE this year, there were only 4 or so nominated to the TC, so that was easy to narrow down, since I didn't want to waste a wager on a horse who wouldn't make the KY Derby gate....and I picked Crown Pride or Bendoog, but I rarely use a longshot winner to win a 2nd time, because the odds are never what you got the first time around (Un Ojo, Crown Pride, etc.) That said, Summer is Tomorrow looks very fast, but read paragraph 7 here: you may or may not want to adjust for the lack of run-up in Meydan before comparing to other times: cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2022/04/21/an-early-look-at-the-2022-kentucky-derby-pace.aspx#:~:text=The%20Dubai%20raider%20routinely%20carves,with%20no%20run%2Dup%20distance. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 21, 2022 18:16:06 GMT -5
To be clear, I am talking about the WIN for the KY Derby as regards the UAE horses, not the exotics.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 26, 2022 21:38:28 GMT -5
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 27, 2022 7:11:55 GMT -5
I came in late on this mornings show but it looked like he breezed again this morning (4 F in 46 2/5). This horse hasn't been just lolling around the barn, that's for sure. I feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football with the foreign Derby entrants every year, but ... this one seem different.
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Post by arsignman on Apr 27, 2022 7:58:40 GMT -5
I agree, Country Pride trains differently than the other horses in the Derby. He comes out every morning and goes though his morning routine before he gallops or breezes. He has looked good in his works each day. Gate bell may be problem but I think the will have him ready. I am interested to seeing him Derby day after he is saddled and how he prepares for the start.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 27, 2022 17:15:14 GMT -5
He just worked a bullet. One thing you can depend on, this horse is ultra-fit.
My "concern" is just that I am of the opinion that UAE race doesn't correspond well to our KY Derby, if you look at the history of who wins the UAE......
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Post by longshot on Apr 27, 2022 17:47:28 GMT -5
Converting Crown Pride's Euro Timeform Ratings to Beyers he has run 88, 77, 80, & 77 in his four races.
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Post by cindyloujazz on Apr 28, 2022 9:25:49 GMT -5
I do not understand the positive vibes for Crown Pride. He will not be on any of my tickets.
Previous recent runners in the UAE Derby that ran in Kentucky:
2012- Daddy Long Legs fin 20th
2013- Lines of Battle fin 7th
2015- Mubtaahij fin 8th
2016- Lani fin 9th
2017- Thunder Snow fin 20th
2018- Mendelssohn fin 20th
2019- Plus Que Parfait=8th
Yeah, he has a great pedigree but that doesn't mean you will run fast. He had one of the slowest times in UAE Derby history. Mendelssohn had one of the fastest times in his UAE Derby and finished 20th in Kentucky.
Bet Crown Pride if you want, for me, no thanks.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 28, 2022 9:48:50 GMT -5
I hear you cindylou, but when did each of those horses arrive at Churchill? I don't know the answer off the top of my head, but recollection was that many would show up on Sunday/Monday of derby week and go straight to the quarantine barn, and I remember the morning works folks saying we hope we can see them out on the track on wed or thur for a gallop. Crown Pride left for Churchill shortly after the UAE Derby and has spent a ton of time on the track. Add in that the Japanese horses have done well internationally, including last year's Breeders Cup and this years UAE card.
I understand the concern over whom he beat in the UAE Derby and that I'm told it was the slowest ever time for the race, but, most of these prior editions were run over a different track- I think the current one was just installed in the last couple of years. For all of the negatives, and I agree there are plenty, you have to get pretty long odds to take a chance that this year IS different, but I think bettors will get those long odds. I am playing him, at least in some Oaks/Derby doubles.
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Post by shoes on May 4, 2022 6:40:30 GMT -5
That work this morning looked awesome to me. Don't know if it was too fast, too close to the race, but wow.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 4, 2022 8:02:33 GMT -5
The Meydan dirt track on Work Cup night was very slow, the DWC went in 2:04.97.
He has the same last out TGraph # as Epicenter.
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Post by elkurzhal on May 4, 2022 8:51:29 GMT -5
Feel like this will be the most posted on thread on 5/8. Wouldn't mind if Lemaire picks up a mount earlier in the day, maybe the 4th as it's the only 2 turn dirt race before the derby.
Also, Happy Birthday Crown Pride, May the 4th be with you.
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