now eleven days away

[Badactor]

What do you think?

1 Epicenter          164
2 Zandon             114
3 White Abarrio      112
4 Mo Donegal         112
5 Tiz the Bomb       110
6 Cyberknife         100
7 Crown Pride (JPN)  100
8 Taiba              100
9 Simplification      74
10 Smile Happy        70
11 Tawny Port         60
12 Barber Road        58
13 Un Ojo             54
14 Early Voting       50
15 Morello            50
16 Messier            40
17 Zozos              40
18 Summer Is Tomorrow 40
19 Charge It          40
20 Happy Jack         30
21 Pioneer of Medina  25
22 In Due Time        24
23 Ethereal Road      22
24 Rich Strike        21
25 Rattle N Roll      20
26 Skippylongstocking 20
27 Major General      18
28 Golden Glider      15

www.kentuckyderby.com/horses

[spanky126]

I get it that many betters love to bet the grey horses. I would like to know what our panel of experts think of White Abarrio.

[Badactor]

Would love to see my White Abarrio/Barber Road exacta box come true.

At this moment... White Abarrio is my top selection to win.

Mike Smith aboard Taiba is a must use in exactas and trifectas.

Smile Happy intrigues me for reasons of pedigree.

Japan on a hot streak. Crown Pride worth consideration.

That's my "bad-not-available-in-stores" Top 5 Kentucky Derby selections.

Looking forward to upcoming workouts AND Ozzy's photos from Churchill Downs!

[1hooper]

White Abarrio had a very nice work this morning.

[bobtailnag]

As of now I have to go with the ones I selected in the prep races that won or ran impressively. White Abarrio, Taiba, Barber Road, Messier and Zozos. And I don't think anyone doen't like Epicenter. My "off the wall" horse I like is Ethereal Road - if he makes the gate. I'm really disappointed that Major General won't be there.

[shoes]

Years ago I used to tape all of the preps off the TV then with a second recorder put all of the preps together on one tape and watch them several times. I would always say" the winner is on this tape, I just have to spot it.' Now Dell has made that easy for us as he has linked the videos on here.

This was a major tool for me along with PP reviews, workout reviews, and pedigree study. The biggest thing Iook for on the video is who looked like they were capable of making that decisive move that so many of the Derby winners make (thought not all do). That move is frequently made on the final turn. Without having yet watched replays and based upon my memory of watching the races live on TV, I thought that Zandon made the most visually impressive move. At this point that is how I am leaning but there is a lot of work to do yet. . These next almost 3 weeks might be my favorite time of the year as I love the process.

We are so lucky also to have access to most of the workouts.

[eye123]

Zandon has shown he's one tough horse, traffic no problem, willing to tough it out. Last race his best (Smile Happy looked darn good also)...Chad looking for that elusive first Derby winner, and think he has one here who might deliver that. I'm with you, right now one I'm leaning in the direction of.

[mysaladdays]

I would have to wait for Defections and Additions before making my choices.  There are 2 horses I like for my superfecta / tri ticket, but not sure if they will run.

Also what the weather will be. On a sloppy field verus a fast dry track, my choices would be very different.

There are still a few who may defect, i.e. Early Voting.......seems like Chad likes Zandon better for derby and EV for Preakness.  Just a hunch.  

I'm pulling for Morello right now, and I believe he may end up in the Pat Day Mile.  Which will let all the air out of my balloon because I just love this horse.  When that happens you have to re-configure all your thoughts to find another horse or 2. 


I can't back Taiba.   That would go against everything I believe is important for the long term conditioning of a true classic distance racehorse, i.e. the patience, the work, the conditoning, the whole building of the foundation.  (I won't count Justify because.......well............you know.)   

Even Curlin couldn't get it done, and nobody could have conditioned him from a Yearling to a 3 year old (when he ran his very first race) any better than Helen Pitts did.   

It would be me saying "no foundation is necessary to train a horse up to this feat" and I simply can't do that.

He could be the next coming like Rock Your World was supposed to be.   This is why I'm a water hay oats supporter and also a supporter of the truly patient trainers out there who know how to "build a horse. "    As Gai Waterhouse said, "it just takes good horsemanship."  

  

[shoes]

Is it true that Mo Donegal got a 111 Bris for the Wood as opposed to a what was it- 96 from Beyer? If so, that seems a bigger than usual discrepency.

[eye123]

Untitled document.pdf (43.18 KB)

[Badactor]

[shoes]

Apr 18, 2022 10:21:39 GMT -5 eye123 said:

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Thanks eye!

[eye123]

Apr 18, 2022 13:13:51 GMT -5 shoes said:

Apr 18, 2022 10:21:39 GMT -5 eye123 said:

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Thanks eye!

Your welcome !   I find I'm looking forward  to this derby more than the most recent ones the last few years.    

[tc]

You know what I'm looking forward to on May 7th?

My son's 15th birthday and Arcade Fire as the musical guest on SNL.

The derby...not so much.

[shoes]

I'm with eye- for whatever reason I am looking more forward to this year than either of the last two at least. Maybe Baffert being out is a factor, i.e. I don't have to worry about the Baffert horses- or do I? Do you think he plays a continuing role with Messier and Taiba?

Also is Morello out? He has been listed as possible rather than probable for awhile, but he wasn't on a couple of lists that I just looked at.

[elkurzhal]

Feel much more excited about the undercard races, really starting with 3 stakes Thursday, then loaded cards Friday and Saturday. Nominations closed 4/16, Hopefully the nominations pps are up on the CDI website in the next few days.

[madameblum]

I'll be rooting "big time" for Cyberknife.

Cyberknife is bred by Mr. Ramsey.  I'm a  big fan.  This might be Mr Ramsey's only way to get to the Kentucky Derby in the near future.

This is a baby of Gun Runner and Awesome Flower.

Owned by Gold Square LLC. (Al Gold)

This horse was picked out by Jon Hardoon's son (The Sheets)  Al Gold and Jon are good friends.

Doc and I used to attend the Ragozin seminars in the club house at Saratoga run by Hardoon on the weekends.

All systems go!!!

[mysaladdays]

Apr 18, 2022 18:03:16 GMT -5 shoes said:

I'm with eye- for whatever reason I am looking more forward to this year than either of the last two at least. Maybe Baffert being out is a factor, i.e. I don't have to worry about the Baffert horses- or do I? Do you think he plays a continuing role with Messier and Taiba?

Also is Morello out? He has been listed as possible rather than probable for awhile, but he wasn't on a couple of lists that I just looked at.

DRF removed him from their lists as it appears he most likely will not run. 
He was my big 25-1+ longshot for months now. 

Then after putting his record thru the paces, using shutty's (recent) analysis of a longshot (an exercise I did just for fun)  ..... you know, that horse that either runs 2nd or 4th/5th that destroys everyone's exotic tickets.  He was one of the few who fulfilled every requirement.

I was planning on making serious coin on him.   So my excitement is dampened now. 

THere are 5 others who may fit but I gotta see what the odds are first to see if they qualify, as some will not be long enough odds to qualify as a true longshot Lookin' at Lee type.   Lanerie sure did a great job with him in the 2017 derby!

[cherokeescot]

Better to be a fan of Ken Ramsey than a creditor 😉

[mysaladdays]

I guess if Morello and Early Voting do not go, we get Pioneer of Medina and In Due Time, is that correct?

[mysaladdays]

Apr 18, 2022 18:03:16 GMT -5 shoes said:

I'm with eye- for whatever reason I am looking more forward to this year than either of the last two at least. Maybe Baffert being out is a factor, i.e. I don't have to worry about the Baffert horses- or do I? Do you think he plays a continuing role with Messier and Taiba?

Baffert conditioned them from yearlings, so just because he got a paper trainer to transfer these colts to, doesn't mean the "baffert program" wasn't in full force when these colts were conditioned and trained. How does one remove a "continuing role" at the last minute, I do not know. Horses run to their breeding, but also how they are conditioned to run.  Case in point, Kavod, who is actually good to about 11-12F, but has been taught to expend his energy on the front. 

All you have to do is watch all of Messier's races...his running style is distinctly Baffert-esque.  He is one of the Bafferts that I like somewhat though. 

Ditto, Taiba, but who seriously lacks foundation (1 maiden in March and a prep in April)  and would be like the hype of Rock Your World who was supposed to be the Second Coming the year he ran.   If you believe that a horse with little conditioning can win the KY Derby based on just breeding talent, which even Curlin could not do, then use him in the Win spot.  I'm not even sure I will put him on my ticket at all right now.  He's competed against a total of 11 horses in his entire life  

[Badactor]

[ozzy]

Things started getting serious this way yesterday. Charge It looked great working yesterday, Cyberknife had a nice work today and a MONSTER gallop out so get ready for him to be the steam horse. Liked Smile Happy much much more than Tiz The Bomb this morning. Can't wait to see Nest next week and Turnerloose, ehhh... pass. Oh the Dubai filly looked really nice too.

[tenfurlongs]

Derby:

I really like Mo Donegal. They were in no hurry with him, as he was bred to be a two-turn horse. First timed work was at Saratoga in the middle of June last year. Twelve workouts before making his debut in a 6.5F race at Belmont that was clearly too short for him, and he still got third despite a troubled trip. Broke his maiden stretched out to 8.5F, then managed to win a paceless Remsen Stakes at 9F, coming from fifth place. His CR/RR read 113/112, 119/113, 120/115.

He progressed again this season, getting third in the Holy Bull with a late move, then skipped the FOY after drawing PP 12 and subsequently running a fever. Waited for the Wood, where he sat farther back despite a tepid pace under new rider Rosario, moved out into the stretch and ran past the leaders late in 1:47 4/5, his final 3F in under 36 seconds. If the Derby was at AQU, he might be even-money...lol. His CR/RR this season reads 119/117, 123/118. If he handles the Churchill track, he might just improve again in third start of the cycle. Bred to get 10F no problem. PP draw should be of little consequence to his chances, unless he's way down inside. As of now, I'll use him as my key. Only two bets will be triples with him, over Epicenter, Zandon, White Abarrio, Messier, Charge It, over ALL. Then Mo Donegal over ALL over those five in third. $90 and I'm done.

My board-crasher is Barber Road. Undercard, as others have mentioned, will be primed for scores. Good luck with yours.


Oaks:

After watching her blossom all winter at Meydan, I'll be rooting for, and wagering a small amount on Shahama, who I see is now under the care of Pletcher also. A daughter of Munnings and half-sister to Preakness winner & 2yo/3yo Champion Lookin at Lucky, she sold for $425K to Fawzi Nass. Workouts have been good, including 5F over CD oval yesterday, which wasn't far off of Happy Saver and Charge It.


paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/todd-pletcher-sends-out-squad-of-kentucky-derby-oaks-workers-friday-at-churchill/

www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/uae-oaks-winner-shahama-joins-todd-pletcher-kentucky-oaks-bid/





TW

[Badactor]

Smooth and professional... unasked.

Don't worry. Smile Happy.

[1hooper]

I'll see your work and raise...

[tc]

Contender PPs

production-picks-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2022/04/Kentucky-Derby-2022-PPs.pdf

[Badactor]