IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY at TAMPA! March 30th
Mar 30, 2022 8:36:57 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Mar 30, 2022 8:36:57 GMT -5
Thanks again Dell for often supporting The TBD Handicapper!
Wednesday, March 30th
So Pletcher kills my big play with only his 2nd FTS + FTT winner in 14 meetings, while Dr. No hits the board with three 2nds and a 3rd in five tries on Sunday. So it goes…
1st – Anybody can make a bomb from time to time, but the ones that can do it with the same horse again and again, well that’s special. Drake is such a trainer. His piece was par two back and drops a click today.
Cliffy (4) went +1,+3 two back and comes out of a race that now sees El Samuro (3rd) moving up to a SALW 20 today (see R7). Should be there on the big drop here.
$15 Exacta 4/2
$25 Weighted Pick 3 - 4/2,4,5/7 ($25)
2nd – Delgado is 53% Win or Place with his angle in 25 tries and is shipped after a sound beating (and I usually take that as a positive signal).
Munoz is 42 & 56 with UCEs but both of these have 3% Win angles. Carlos has had 8 ITM with AA Rodriguez up and none with Bisono, giving us a clue. However, here in Tampa, Munoz is 5 (1-1-1) with FTSs in dirt sprints.
Raymond has a 2-52 angle. Rarick has a 1-48 angle.
Win 5
3rd – Avila is OK with FBKs but is 0-12 with RtSs. Schistl’s piece went -16,-13 in last. What the hell happened to Giovane (3)? Max Ubide is 1-9 with NCs and his piece was -4,-6 in last.
I’ll Takemyshot (7) with Acker here. His runner went +9,-2 in last.
AM Rodriguez is usually trying with FTSs (14 & 33).
Win 7 and Trifectas 7/2,6/2,6 (4 bets)
4th – KOC is 34 & 74 with UCEs but Sassy Charlee (3) stays with Philipp. Kathy is only 13% with both in UCEs. It’s a guessing game and others (1,6 & 8) also look alright by the numbers.
Pass
5th – Bennett’s Xy Speed (6) was par in last but if the ML is 3-5, what will it go off at 1-20? It aint' that good!
Pass or Bet Against
6th – Bennett has a UCE here, 36 & 79. He’s 26% Win with RBs and only 14% Win with No Changes. I think Camacho may be a smokescreen here.
$15 Exacta Box 4,7 ($30)
DDs 4,7/1,5,7
7th – D’craziness (2) scratched from a C16 that was taken off the turf on the 25th. Looks like Gerry wants to get the 9YO in, but the UC move may be less than ideal.
Exacta Box 1,5,7
8th – Ryan has five (5) different ITM angles here (including three multiple characteristic angles) ranging from 48 to 65%. If we don’t play this one, then we are just pretending to believe…
$10 Place and Show 6 ($20)
$1 All/4,8,10/6 (27 bets) ($27) (Bombs away!)
9th – Trifecta Box 1,5,6,8
Wednesday, March 30th
So Pletcher kills my big play with only his 2nd FTS + FTT winner in 14 meetings, while Dr. No hits the board with three 2nds and a 3rd in five tries on Sunday. So it goes…
1st – Anybody can make a bomb from time to time, but the ones that can do it with the same horse again and again, well that’s special. Drake is such a trainer. His piece was par two back and drops a click today.
Cliffy (4) went +1,+3 two back and comes out of a race that now sees El Samuro (3rd) moving up to a SALW 20 today (see R7). Should be there on the big drop here.
$15 Exacta 4/2
$25 Weighted Pick 3 - 4/2,4,5/7 ($25)
2nd – Delgado is 53% Win or Place with his angle in 25 tries and is shipped after a sound beating (and I usually take that as a positive signal).
Munoz is 42 & 56 with UCEs but both of these have 3% Win angles. Carlos has had 8 ITM with AA Rodriguez up and none with Bisono, giving us a clue. However, here in Tampa, Munoz is 5 (1-1-1) with FTSs in dirt sprints.
Raymond has a 2-52 angle. Rarick has a 1-48 angle.
Win 5
3rd – Avila is OK with FBKs but is 0-12 with RtSs. Schistl’s piece went -16,-13 in last. What the hell happened to Giovane (3)? Max Ubide is 1-9 with NCs and his piece was -4,-6 in last.
I’ll Takemyshot (7) with Acker here. His runner went +9,-2 in last.
AM Rodriguez is usually trying with FTSs (14 & 33).
Win 7 and Trifectas 7/2,6/2,6 (4 bets)
4th – KOC is 34 & 74 with UCEs but Sassy Charlee (3) stays with Philipp. Kathy is only 13% with both in UCEs. It’s a guessing game and others (1,6 & 8) also look alright by the numbers.
Pass
5th – Bennett’s Xy Speed (6) was par in last but if the ML is 3-5, what will it go off at 1-20? It aint' that good!
Pass or Bet Against
6th – Bennett has a UCE here, 36 & 79. He’s 26% Win with RBs and only 14% Win with No Changes. I think Camacho may be a smokescreen here.
$15 Exacta Box 4,7 ($30)
DDs 4,7/1,5,7
7th – D’craziness (2) scratched from a C16 that was taken off the turf on the 25th. Looks like Gerry wants to get the 9YO in, but the UC move may be less than ideal.
Exacta Box 1,5,7
8th – Ryan has five (5) different ITM angles here (including three multiple characteristic angles) ranging from 48 to 65%. If we don’t play this one, then we are just pretending to believe…
$10 Place and Show 6 ($20)
$1 All/4,8,10/6 (27 bets) ($27) (Bombs away!)
9th – Trifecta Box 1,5,6,8