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Post by Badactor on Mar 29, 2022 13:06:57 GMT -5
IT'S A GIRL AGAINST THE BOYS IN THE ARKANSAS DERBY...
What do you see and who do you like?
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Post by bobtailnag on Mar 29, 2022 16:12:15 GMT -5
The current holder of the fasted time for the Arkansas Derby, 1:46.80 is another filly, Althea in 1984. Could this be the first time a filly breaks a race record of another filly not in a distaff only race?
We The People will be moving way up the ladder in this one but he does have a capable trainer and getting Flavien Prat to drive is like getting A J Foyt to drive you Indy car on the last Sunday in May. He's best used in the trifecta Saturday.
The filly does look formidable but a thought Wayne would have chosen a better rider rather than staying with a 9% winning jock. It's admirable that he's staying with the one that took him to the dance. I hope it wasn't a mistake.
I will be interested in seeing how many folks back Ojo Saturday. If it's just for sport you must support.
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Post by Badactor on Mar 29, 2022 21:23:04 GMT -5
I played Barber Road in a couple exacta boxes in future pool 3, so we're gonna need a good effort in order to make the KD gate.
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Post by Badactor on Mar 30, 2022 0:10:34 GMT -5
DOPPELGANGER was impressive in person @ Los Alamitos.
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Post by Badactor on Mar 30, 2022 0:26:54 GMT -5
Joe Frazier 11th round.  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 30, 2022 4:43:48 GMT -5
The horse I'd LIKE to see get at least SOME of this $$$ is the "miler", Kavod.
This distance isn't in his wheelhouse but I absolutely love this hard-trying racehorse who dances every dance.
Will try and get back to give some picks though once I get PPs and odds.
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 30, 2022 5:15:17 GMT -5
The filly does look formidable but a thought Wayne would have chosen a better rider rather than staying with a 9% winning jock. It's admirable that he's staying with the one that took him to the dance. I hope it wasn't a mistake. I don't think it matters at OP that much. What I find crazy is they aren't using a jockey like Arrietta, one of the most capable OP riders. Ditto, Santana. The trainers bring their big jocks in for these races I guess. Lukas likes to give chances to the locals most of the time, he is based at our track. Mike Smith rode Untrapped in a previous edition and ran out of the money. Castellano was on Malagacy and didn't hit the board. Espinoza was brought in to ride Tenfold, didn't hit the board. Johnny V. was brought in to ride Gettysburg (2nd favorite) didn't hit the board. Baffert's Cupid was the favorite, and finished way out of the money. (but that year, Quinonez, a lesser OP jockey, hit 2nd with Suddenbreakingnews) Running 2 or 3 routes AT that track seems to have a good outcome in at least 2 horses hitting superfecta. My home track, I keep good records since I play it daily. I like a wet muddy track there the best though LOL It rains so much here I'm used to finding the mudders. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 30, 2022 6:58:19 GMT -5
Don't have time to look back thru all, but amazing how many horses run out of the money in the Rebel, or run 3rd or 4th, and then win the AR Derby. Of note, Creator (3rd in Rebel, won AR Derby), Suddenbreakingnews (off board in Rebel, 2nd in AR Derby), Lookin at Lee (off board in Rebel, 3rd in AR Derby), Super Stock (4th in Rebel, won AR Derby), Basin (3rd in Rebel, 2nd in AR Derby). Many won their 2nd to last race before winning the AR derby though, at other tracks.
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Post by Badactor on Mar 30, 2022 11:35:46 GMT -5
I love Lookin' at Lee!
It was his progression that led "bad"
to our tremendous 2nd place at a price
run in the Kentucky Derby. Happy memory.
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Post by bobtailnag on Mar 31, 2022 10:28:30 GMT -5
Naming a dozen top riders who missed the board in a major race has little to do with issue of judgement in the selection of quality of riders. Every year in most of the major races, 7 to 10 top riders ride in the race and at least half of them miss the board because there are only 4 slots on the board. My point was, and is, that the wiser move is to pass on a 9% rider in favor of a more successful jockey. Personally I'd like to see Wayne win it - and Contreras too.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 1, 2022 4:08:45 GMT -5
April 1st
I will make a case for my pick in the Arkanas Derby, like I did for Un Ojo in the Rebel. I always explain in detail if I like a horse, so here goes.
Oaklawn is my home track so I get to watch horses work and race on a regular basis. Much of what you see when you are live at a track is not apparent in the PPs.
But I'll just let Rachel Croft sing you my pick here (and make sure you listen to her song , she has a lovely voice and deserves some attention, too.)
He annihilated the field first time going 2 turns.
11:43 here: Check out what he did to Speak Unity --- he even let that one and other horses run by him---- no worries, he demolished the field. Rosario riding...(he knew! what he had under him, and didn't hurry the colt.) Horse wasn't even all out....barely trying, actually. You will notice that Rosario just sat chilly on him....hardly used the whip. Horse wasn't dueling.....he actually didn't have to.
That was in JANUARY. You should see him now.
I haven't even seen him *mentioned" anywhere and not by the talking heads. Same sire as Epicenter, this is one of the Not This Time's that I've been watching.
I will play in every spot, maybe along with the usual suspects if exotics, but a single w/p/s too.
It's not "who did he beat".....its his natural athleticism that is on display. When I decide to cap a race, I watch every race a horse in a race has run ....not just the stakes races. I don't like letting someone else assign a "number" to a horse for me instead of watching their maidens and allowance races....those numbers by themselves tell me very little, gotta see other stuffs.
And I hope Kavod runs in the superfecta.....cuz he's my "horse crush". What a nice horse, a real sweetheart. Heck, if either of my 2 run in the superfecta,I'll be pleased as punch.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 1, 2022 4:19:01 GMT -5
Naming a dozen top riders who missed the board in a major race has little to do with issue of judgement in the selection of quality of riders. Every year in most of the major races, 7 to 10 top riders ride in the race and at least half of them miss the board because there are only 4 slots on the board. My point was, and is, that the wiser move is to pass on a 9% rider in favor of a more successful jockey. Personally I'd like to see Wayne win it - and Contreras too. By the way, I don't *actually* disagree wtih you. When I realized Gaffalione had never won a race at FG, (9-0-0-0) I regreted thinking Pioneer would run better than he actually did. So we are somewhat in agreement. Was just trying to say that most jocks don't ride day in day out at OP, so many shippers. etc. I should have been more clear. As for the fiilly, I don't really see her as "the class of the field" so I'm already not in agreement with many others on that. |
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 1, 2022 9:21:40 GMT -5
Just noticed an interesting point in Kavod's PPs. Trainer Hartman is changing riders to Mitchell Murrell. In the last 60 days Murrell has ridden 31 horses for Hartman and won 15 of them. I don't think the it will make much difference, the horse was a $3500.00 seller at the auction but stranger things have happened.
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Post by UpInClass on Apr 1, 2022 11:16:02 GMT -5
PHOTOS?  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 1, 2022 21:45:13 GMT -5
This is a non lasix race. I try to see all the meds a horse is on because it's part of my handicapping. Take with a grain of salt if you don't think it matters. I'm not saying it does or not, just putting it out there for everybody. I'm wondering if it affected my horse's chances in the Rebel though but of course the track condition and weather changed quite a bit that day. Every capper has my horse choice running 2nd to last so maybe i should prepare myself  Of note: We The People has always run on lasix, both his races. (So not sure how he'll do w/out it.) Ben Diesel has never been on lasix. Ditto dopple and barber road. A lot of these hardly have run on it maybe one time (kavod1x in '21, Secret Oath 1x in '21) Chasing Time 2x in 2 races immediately before his Rebel Stakes, and Cyberknife 2x (the every other race thing) . Un Ojo 2x but not since Nov of '21 |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 1, 2022 21:55:42 GMT -5
Just noticed an interesting point in Kavod's PPs. Trainer Hartman is changing riders to Mitchell Murrell. In the last 60 days Murrell has ridden 31 horses for Hartman and won 15 of them. I don't think the it will make much difference, the horse was a $3500.00 seller at the auction but stranger things have happened. Interesting! I'm not familiar with Murrell . Horse cost $3500, has earned almost $350K and running ITM about 33% of the time. Wish I had bought him! Owner told me in a post that his children love the horse, he's very gentle with them feeding treats and lovin' on him. Sounds like a nice one to own once he retires, I'd turn him into a nice 2nd career or just riding companion. BUt at any rate, sounds like just the children alone got great value out of him. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 2, 2022 6:33:29 GMT -5
PHOTOS? I have a ton. I also took some of the extraordinarily lovely infield. One of my projects to post 'em up, just havne't gotten around to it due to some family illness. |
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 850
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Post by ozzy on Apr 2, 2022 12:54:43 GMT -5
On paper the race appears a bit light on pace to me. Can certainly see Kavod trying to go to the lead if he can outbreak We The People, but think that one may be content to sit off as well. I think Secret Oath just does as she pleases with this group as nothing just jump off the page to me as a true Derby contender and her figs are just simply better.
Interesting discussion on the Lasix with both Cyberknife and We The People. I wondered about it last year but haven’t given it much thought this year. And as for Mitch Murrell, in KY the battle cry often heard is “Get Rich With Mitch” as he can boot some prices home for sure.
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Post by UpInClass on Apr 2, 2022 19:06:25 GMT -5
RESULTS:
8 Cyberknife $13.60 $7.00 $3.60
3 Barber Road $7.40 $4.00
6 Secret Oath $2.80
4 Doppelganger
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Post by UpInClass on Apr 2, 2022 19:13:13 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 2, 2022 19:26:52 GMT -5
Screenshot. This is only one "bay" at OP.....there are 3 where you can stand around, separated by low walls, but you have to go inside the grandstand, walk to next exit, and back outside again to get to the others. There was also the infield, across the track, also had crowds. People GO to this race, it's like this every year. I could not go this year due to family member illness--- only missed 3x in 20 years though (how the heck do you post photos from your own computer?  It kept asking me for an http: website?) So there is also inside the grandstand, more than 1 floor, also crowded, plus the paid-for seats inside there. They usually get 65K or so ..... thinking it might be more this year, who knows. I can't do the shoulder-to-shoulder stuff. Its too much |
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Post by Badactor on Apr 3, 2022 19:56:47 GMT -5
Mysaladdays... you can email the photos
and I will put them on the forum. upinclass@hotmail.com
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It kept asking me for an http: website?)