The Rebel

[bobtailnag]

The PPs are out and take a look at @9 trained by D. Wayne Lukas.   First 3 races and her never got closer to the lead than 5 lengths.  Then, his last race, he forgot to  leave the gate and was 16 lengths behind the leader when he did.  He won by 4 lengths.  I would .love to see D Wayne in the Dergy.

[arsignman]

Lukas mentioned to Gary Stevens yesterday that you might see  his filly Secret Oath  in Arkansas Derby !!!!

[UpInClass]

THE REBEL STAKES
1 Kavod
2 Newgrange
3 Cairama
4 Un Ojo
5 Texas Red Hot
6 Stellar Tap
7 Ben Diesel
8 Chasing Time
9 Barber Road
10 Ethereal Road
11 Dash Attack
ODDS & ENTRIES

[bobtailnag]

I pulled up the last race by Secret Oath, the Martha Washington, and see did look like she might be capable to running with the boys. She had no problems winning that race by maybe 15 lengths in a brease.

[1hooper]

Bobtail's Rebel horse yearling pedigree page. apps.keeneland.com/sales/Sep20/pdfs/422.pdf

[bobtailnag]

Hoop - She looks pretty nice to me. What do you think?

[1hooper]

Ethereal Road.
$90k as a yearling when the average Quality Road went for $330 at that sale. Probably an X-ray or scope thing at the sale that scared the big $$ boys away. Distance within his scope. Would love to see Lukas try the grass with him. Good luck.

[ozzy]

For a $1 million purse, I was surprised by the entries

[Badactor]

BAD's "Robert Frost" Exacta Box Poetry Pick!

Two Roads converge in the Rebel, good
And thinking I would play them both
And be one gambler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because t'was Race Day and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both this morning equally lay
In contests offering race type black.
Oh, I'll keep the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubt if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads converged on the derby trail, and I—
I boxed two roads in a valiant try,
And that made all the difference.

[Badactor]

[bobtailnag]

Watching the move Barber Road made in the Southwest, I'm thinking he might have had a chance in that race if Santana hadn't held him back at the start. Ortiv is bringing back Gutierrez so maybe we might see a better ride Saturday. At 9/2 I think he's a bet.   I don't think Baffer's going to lose this race but it's alwaws possible

[1hooper]

Feb 22, 2022 13:25:25 GMT -5 ozzy said:

For a $1 million purse, I was surprised by the entries

The industry has not produced this few foals since the mid 1960's. I would expect a big decrease in black type races over the next decade.
Hooper


Breedings in 2020 have resulted in 19,021 live foals of 2021 thus far being reported to The Jockey Club (TJC) on Live Foal Reports, according to the annual Report of Mares Bred (RMB), which was released Friday by TJC. The number of live foals reported to date is expected to be 85-90% complete. The reporting of live foals of 2021 is down 3.3% from last year at this time when TJC had received reports for 19,677 live foals of 2020.

[Badactor]

On Race Day and in future pool 3, it's gotta be Barber Road. Getting interesting... Good luck!

[bobtailnag]

Kf I could make a shekel or 2 on a future ticket, he'd be my choice

[forego]

Newgrange looks tough in here but I'll go against with Dash Attack. 3-4 wide trip last out and between horses for most of the trip, had a little traffic entering the far turn, dropped back and came again making a little move and then flattened out. McPeek has him cranked up with two bullets and should be running well late.

Best of luck all.

[mysaladdays]

Rebel, diappointing field but tough race to cap, many horses from both the Smarty Jones and the Southwest and a few new shooters. All are turning in good works and/or bullets, it' been raining here and freezing some, so don't know how dry the track will be.... my porch is still wet and weather says possibility of "wintery mix" tomorrow (Sat) so who knows.

Asmussen 2 horses ran out of the money in Southwest, and he's replacing them with 3 completely different horses for the Rebel. 


I like Stellar Tap and that NY horse for a longshot Un Ojo.



Stellar Tap had a lot of racing trouble and had been off a while.  He's run more routes over 1 mile than any other horse in the field.  Asmussen brought him back online in the same way he always does after a long layoff, with an allowance or OC race beforehand. Asmussen is 20% 2nd off the layoff.  (and 15% graded stakes in general).  I think you can't go by his numbers on the PPs because they aren't representative of where he may be at now. I'm giving him another shot, despite he's not getting the top notch jockey here. 


Both Un Ojo and Ethereal Road have the same running style and late kick. Both have same M/L odds. I usually bet Lukas horses at OP in the wet because he's pulled some nice longshots, but those are usually in everyday races, not stakes races. I liked Un Ojo in the Great White Way 2nd and his stakes debut in the Withers where he ran 9F and came in 2nd.  I believe he is the only horse in the field who has run a route at that distance.     The Lukas horse Ethereal Road has only run in maidens. Ethereal Road's pedigree looks pretty "turfy" to me and while he did record that nice late pace i'm not sure he's fast enough for this particular crowd, so it will depend on the pace, since he is slow early, fast late.   So I went with the other horse......though I have no idea how Un Ojo will like this track compared to BEL. But seems like a lot of horses who run well in the Withers end up in the KY Derby gate.


Probably just singling Stellar Tap and  Un Ojo singling w/p/s



I'd love to see Kavod run ITM, he's danced every dance but just can't seem to get 'er done. He's too slow late, but so is 2,7,9,11. I don't know if I would chance an exotic in a race like this with possibility of an off track.   If I did I would add to my 2 key choices above, underneath play:  Newgrange, Chasing Time, Ethereal Road.  

[bobtailnag]

If Barber does win I might be cashing a nice exacta ticket too. In the 11th I'll have Where's Randy, Heritage and You Vee Cee YVC is trained my Carl Deville, he's one of those old Lousiana trainers that knows all the tricks.

Also got a wild longshot in the 10th, a 6F maiden race. #7 Summer in Malibu 12/1. His first race was 6F and didn't show much. His second was a mile and didn;t show much. In his third race they dropped him back to 6Fs and he had a run at it finishing a length back while closing the gap. In his last race they moved him up again to a mile and he lead most of the way to the stretch call before falling back. Today he's back down at 6Fs and might be ready to show us something. Will also drop him under the 1-2-6-8 exacta.

[ozzy]

Secret Oath is some kind of filly. Would be no shock to see the Coach run her in the Ark Derby next.

In the Rebel I’ll let Newgrange beat me at even or less. I like Chasing Time over Etheral Road and Barber Road

[tenfurlongs]

I don't know if today is the day for Ben Diesel, but he needs to get some more points (only 3) in his next two starts. He broke his maiden at first asking going 1 1/16mi at Churchill Downs on Halloween, then was thrown right into stakes company in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) four weeks later. He ran a very good fourth at 16-1, beaten 6+ lengths. Finishing ahead of him that day:

Smile Happy (1st) came back to run 2nd in the Risen Star S. (G2) last week, behind Epicenter, Beyer 94.

Classic Causeway (2nd) came back to win the Sam F. Davis S. (G3) two weeks ago, Beyer 88.

White Abarrio (3rd) came back to win the Holy Bull S. (G3) three weeks ago, Beyer 97.


Trainer Dallas Stewart develops his horses slowly. Ben Diesel made the lead from the 13-hole in the sloppy Smarty Jones S., then faded to a mid-pack finish. Next out in the Southwest he improved to third behind Newgrange and Barber Road from his rail draw. Now he draws outside most of the speed. His full-sister Will's Secret won the Honeybee and Martha Washington here, and was third in the Kentucky Oaks. John Court has been aboard since day one, hope that continues. Is today the day?




TW

[DoctorDisaster]

[DoctorDisaster]

Barber Road to pull off the upset

[mysaladdays]

Feb 26, 2022 4:43:07 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I like Stellar Tap and that NY horse for a longshot Un Ojo.



Stellar Tap had a lot of racing trouble and had been off a while.  He's run more routes over 1 mile than any other horse in the field.  Asmussen brought him back online in the same way he always does after a long layoff, with an allowance or OC race beforehand. Asmussen is 20% 2nd off the layoff.  (and 15% graded stakes in general).  I think you can't go by his numbers on the PPs because they aren't representative of where he may be at now. I'm giving him another shot, despite he's not getting the top notch jockey here. 


Both Un Ojo and Ethereal Road have the same running style and late kick. Both have same M/L odds. I usually bet Lukas horses at OP in the wet because he's pulled some nice longshots, but those are usually in everyday races, not stakes races. I liked Un Ojo in the Great White Way 2nd and his stakes debut in the Withers where he ran 9F and came in 2nd.  I believe he is the only horse in the field who has run a route at that distance.     The Lukas horse Ethereal Road has only run in maidens. Ethereal Road's pedigree looks pretty "turfy" to me and while he did record that nice late pace i'm not sure he's fast enough for this particular crowd, so it will depend on the pace, since he is slow early, fast late.   So I went with the other horse......though I have no idea how Un Ojo will like this track compared to BEL. But seems like a lot of horses who run well in the Withers end up in the KY Derby gate.


Probably just singling Stellar Tap and  Un Ojo singling w/p/s



I'd love to see Kavod run ITM, he's danced every dance but just can't seem to get 'er done. He's too slow late, but so is 2,7,9,11. I don't know if I would chance an exotic in a race like this with possibility of an off track.   If I did I would add to my 2 key choices above, underneath play:  Newgrange, Chasing Time, Ethereal Road.  

75--1 on my winner!   I played those as singles as  posted. 

And got the exacta playing my 2 keys on top with the horses I said to use underneath, and Ethereal Road was one of 'em.

Sometimes the Racing Gods let ya win. 

Once I saw that horse that cox had that was even odds and ran off the board, that Ethereal Road beat , I decided to go with the one I thought would have the btter late kick than Ethereal w/longer odds.  Risk .    

[madameblum]

Congratulations!!!!  What a pay day for you!!!

[DoctorDisaster]

nice MSD 

talk about upset

[tenfurlongs]

Great call MSD! That should fill up the old wagering account. You weren't on-track today, were you?




TW

[forego]

Very nice MSD!!!

[Badactor]

1st 4 Un Ojo $152.80 $41.80 $18.60
2nd 10 Ethereal Road    $13.60  $7.20
3rd 9 Barber Road                    $4.40
4th: 1 Kavod

$1.00 EXACTA 4-10 $708.20
$0.50 TRIFECTA 4-10-9 $2,535.95

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 4-10-9-1 $7,084.93

[spanky126]

I bet the #4 horse...of course, I bet uno to show only... doh!  

[turbine]

Nice job MSD!! Always great to hear someone hitting a long shot like that. Impressive!

[bobtailnag]

When I watched the winner cross the wire I thought NO ONE here had the winner. There I am, wrong again. Great call Salad - what's the proper dressing when eating crow?