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Post by Badactor on Feb 15, 2022 10:50:35 GMT -5
RISEN STAR STAKES Purse $400,000. For Three Year Olds. One And One Eighth Miles.
1 Pappacap (FL) 3/C T Gaffalione 122 M E Casse
2 Russian Tank (KY) 3/C J L Vega 122 G Dorochenko
3 Trafalgar (KY) 3/C C J Hernandez 122 A M Stall, Jr.
4 Tawny Port (KY) 3/C F Geroux 122 B H Cox
5 Epicenter (KY) 3/C J Rosario 122 S M Asmussen
6 Pioneer of Medina (KY) 3/C L Saez 122 T A Pletcher
7 Zandon (KY) 3/C J L Ortiz 122 C C Brown
8 Smile Happy (KY) 3/C C J Lanerie 122 K G McPeek
9 Bodock (KY) 3/C M Pedroza, Jr. 122 B H Cox
10 Slow Down Andy (CA) 3/C M Gutierrez 122 D F O'Neill
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Post by Badactor on Feb 17, 2022 9:42:17 GMT -5
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,709
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Post by 1hooper on Feb 17, 2022 11:28:00 GMT -5
Can't imagine 7-2 on Smile Happy. Thinking closer to 2-1.
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Post by Badactor on Feb 17, 2022 20:02:42 GMT -5
#4 Tawny Port @ 12/1 hollers "Play Me!" #8 Smile Happy 7/2
#10 Slow Down Andy 9/2
That's the Badfecta Box... good luck.  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 18, 2022 10:48:02 GMT -5
Edit: Friday night. I went over the data again. I originally just had Epicenter to win, and Bodock as my longshot.
But I decided to mention 2 other possible win candidates now:
I think win candidates here are
Epicenter
Pappacap
Trafalgar
Longshot: Bodock
Smile Happy off 84 days, unless he's Gun Runner I can't take low odds on a horse with no recency.
I went all the way back to 2002, no horse won the Risen Star in their 3 year old debut except Repent in 2002, Pyro and Gun Runner.
Of course the race was shorter then, too. Even when Gun Runner ran it was still only 1-1/16th.
(Lawyer Ron did it, but that was the year the race was moved to LAD so I'm not counting it.)
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 18, 2022 11:04:13 GMT -5
#4 Tawny Port @ 12/1 hollers "Play Me!" .  $430K as a yearling says "Play Me!" Cox puts his rider on this, combo has won 2x and cox w/another rider 3x. I like both of the Cox horses, but liked the other one a tad more. I think winner will suprise in this race. |
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Post by bobtailnag on Feb 18, 2022 18:28:44 GMT -5
Pappacap – should get lots of action at the window. What's not to like? Broke his maiden at first asking then ran 5 consecutive graded stakes, 3 of which were G1s (5/1-2-1). Jersey Joe has been his usual rider but Gaffalione gets the reins tomorrow. I think he might be the better jockey for this horse – just the feeling I get.
Tawny Port (My long shot play) – broke second to last (11th) in his debut but ran a fantastic race to blow them all away, winning by 6 lengths going away. He was bumped at the start and was 7 off the pace at first call. Again, he had an answer, at second call he was 2 off the pace at the 2nd call and finished winning by a neck. This time Cox is putting up his go-to-guy, Geroux (26%winners). I'll be putting 10 on him tomorrow - just in case; and I'll put him in the 2-hole of exacta. (My long shit play)
Epicenter – He's the only true speed in the race. He won the Gun Runner 2 back so easily by 7 lenghts. In his last, The Lecompt , he almost won it door-to-door but got caught a couple before the wire. He'll need to step it up to hit the board in here . I don't think 4/1 is enough to make me want to drop a few bucks on thin but he has a chance.
Zandon 9/2 You have to respect the connections, and if he hadn't been bumped down the lane in the Remsen, he would have probably won the race. If he would go off at 9/2, I think I'd take it. I don't think I'll get it.
Smile Happy – Ya, I also think 5/2 is the best you can hope for but considering the quality of the field I can't bet that horse.
Slow Down Andy - The Los Alamitos Futurity had a short field of 5. The over whelming favorite was Messier at 50c and the dollar. Slow Down did nothing like that – we won it. How do you figure it – was Messier just a flash in the pan of is Andy a serious heavy weight contender?
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 18, 2022 23:47:15 GMT -5
Tawny Port (My long shot play) – broke second to last (11th) in his debut but ran a fantastic race to blow them all away, winning by 6 lengths going away. He was bumped at the start and was 7 off the pace at first call. Again, he had an answer, at second call he was 2 off the pace at the 2nd call and finished winning by a neck. This time Cox is putting up his go-to-guy, Geroux (26%winners). I'll be putting 10 on him tomorrow - just in case; and I'll put him in the 2-hole of exacta. (My long shit play) I had a ton of trouble distinguishing between Cox's Tawny Port and Bodock. I settled on Bodock because Cox is 28% 2nd off the layoff, which fits Bodock and not Tawny. Tawny with that $430K price tag and Geroux was terribly alluring though. I just decided to choose the other one, almost a coin flip, and Bodock has decent Late Pace Figures, plus the race he did win was at Fairgrounds. Not TP. |
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Post by spiderjohn on Feb 19, 2022 9:14:45 GMT -5
I think that you have it all there, bobtail….
PAPPACAP seemed to be compromised in his last two starts, and upgrades to a rider who can put the colt in position to show his best.
SLOW DOWN ANDY is coming off of a win over a Derby steam runner, despite his interesting stretch run antics. Ships in for Reddam/O’Neill , who bring in others who figure in their spots.
TAWNY PORT was very impressive vs not much at Turfway on whatever the surface. Shows determined late run and picks up a rider doing well for trainer.
Good luck!— if you score, I probably score
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Post by Badactor on Feb 19, 2022 13:46:25 GMT -5
Looking for clues & new voices along the triple crown trail... whodoyoulike?
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Post by Badactor on Feb 19, 2022 13:55:44 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Feb 19, 2022 19:38:31 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on Feb 19, 2022 20:13:49 GMT -5
Epicenter had the speed, but he's got the stamina breeding to go 12F or further. Nobody was going to run by him in the stretch......well, not any of "those" horses anyway. LOL I was fully expecting Russian Tank could've run by these. Most of these regressed mostly.......back to allowance races for some of them for a tune up maybe.
Bad races so far in 2022, except for Holy Bull, Sam Davis (and KY Jockey Club from last year.)
That means we all have something to look forward to I hope, in the upcomings!
(I don't understand the Slow Down Andy love, he beat messier who won in a 5 horse field (we shouldn't even count prep races w/5 horses in them) and barossa (who I saw at OP barely get ITM in an allowance race)...both nothingburgers in nothingburger races. Yet went off a 7-1. Smile Happy was a sucker bet after all but who would take those odds anyway)
AFter watching this mess, I am even doubting Epicenter, and he has been in my top 10.
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Post by spiderjohn on Feb 20, 2022 7:54:33 GMT -5
wrong wrong wrong
expensive day
it happens
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