LARRY'S PICKS for Saratoga on Saturday, August 18th!
Aug 16, 2018 13:54:50 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Aug 16, 2018 13:54:50 GMT -5
Several people I know planning to celebrate Alabama Day at the Spa so full card analysis was done. Good luck to those who play!
Welcome to beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country. Larry LaTour has analyzed the entire August 18th card in the following pages and hopefully the racing Gods will shine upon all who read this and win or lose, let’s be sure to have an enjoyable day here at the Spa. While I wish good luck to all who play today I have special wishes for some very important people in my life who are celebrating their birthdays this weekend in Saratoga. My niece Heather Theobald and a close friend for 40+ years, Patrick Comunale are both celebrating special days and I hope you both have a great time with your respective party groups!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(Program note) My analysis today assumes all races scheduled for turf will indeed stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if any grass race is switched to the dirt! The scheduled grass races today are the 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th and 10th!
1 FIRST RACE
1 1/16 Miles (INNER TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $45,000
(2) AZZEDINE drops from 75K in search of his proper level for strong connections. The beaten favorite from his last has finished 2nd three times in 5 trips to the post and could finally get over the hump against this kind. I look for Javier Castellano to be prominent throughout from his hedge draw and he should prevail at a short price. (7) VALYCOVE ships from Chi-Town where he was the beaten favorite last out against better. Drawn widest that day, the post relief may allow for a better trip and the altered son of LEMON DROP KID could be in line for a major share. (9) END OF AN ERA will add the hood making his 3rd start of the year for an owner/trainer who spots them well with limited starters. 3rd in 3 of 5 lifetime, this 150K GIO PONTI offspring could take all with a perfect trip! (4) TELECOMMUNICATION shows good works while returning from a near 12 month hiatus when he endured a wide journey and came up empty against better. He is as good as any to complete the superfecta!
2 SECOND RACE
1 1/16 Miles (TURF) | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(8) HONEY WON’T debuts for strong connections with solid gate breezes on display. In a race where most have never started, it can pay to check the tote board but I don’t have that luxury 2 days early. I suspect this son of SOLDAT will give a good account of himself. (2) PERCEIVED is represented by the same connections as my top pick in the 1st race and frankly they’ve been taking everything not nailed down! This son of BLAME is one who wouldn’t mind this race washing to the main track but we certainly hope it stays on grass. He should be involved at a short price. (9) MEDINA RIDGE is another making his debut and he is as well bred as any for these conditions. The red hot Luis Saez takes the call and he should not be overlooked. (6) SOUTHERN BRIDGE should have gotten an education in his July 21st debut, a race in which he finished 5th but was only beaten 2 lengths. He could be right there with slight improvement.
3 THIRD RACE
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $70,000
(5) HELOOKSTHEPART steps up slightly following an even finish behind some of these on July 21st at half a furlong shorter. Johnny V. takes the call for a trainer he has ridden well for and this son of SONGANDAPRAYER looks to be the lone closer in a race that may have the necessary early pace to promote his late kick. Consistent as they come hitting the trifecta in 30 of 50 lifetime starts, “he looks the part” indeed! In a race where I could spot 4 runners out of 7, I will stop at the single selection who I think will get the best trip!
4 FOURTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(5) HE’S THE SOUPERWON gets off the rail following a likely useful debut where he finished well going half a furlong shorter on July 28th. That race was scheduled for turf but washed to the main track. The son of my 2010 top pick and Kentucky Derby winner SUPER SAVER would probably prefer the dirt surface and also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track. Unless one of the 1st time starters is a monster, he could improve quickly and prevail for trainer Mark Casse. (7) AHEAD OF PLAN debuts for Brown and Castellano and at a $475K purchase price, much is expected from this son of BIG DRAMA. (2) PRINCIPLED is another pricy entrant making his 1st start for Pletcher and Velazquez. A steady work pattern suggests he could go well at first asking.
5 FIFTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $64,000
(7) GYPSY JANIE was the beaten favorite at this level when last spotted on June 24th and she has been freshened since. The 4 time winner usually fires fresh and in a race that should have an honest pace, she may be passing some tired runners through the lane. (4) RICHIE’SLILWILDCAT ships from the Midwest with a perfect 2 for 2 record at this distance. Her style is no secret as she will be forwardly placed throughout but not without some company. If she somehow shakes loose she could take no end of catching. (3) OUR GIRL ABBY was an unlucky 2nd by a nose as the beaten favorite on July 21st. Up slightly in class along with the horse who beat her that day who also enters here, it is significant to note that the 3rd finisher from that heat won next out! She should move forward in making her 2nd start back from a March break.
6 SIXTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(5) WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO raced extremely wide while finishing with authority for 2nd in a similar event on July 28th and it shouldn’t take long for him to greet the lensman. (3) MOST MISCHIEF shows trouble lines in both races wherein he finished 3rd. He stretches out slightly and given a clean trip he could be right there from a stalking journey. (10) QUICK ENTRY displays a decent if unspectacular work pattern since May and he could get a good trip outside the pacesetters herein.
7 SEVENTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $77,000
(8) LA LA LOVELY was a prompt winner the 1st time she tried turf on June 23rd and now the daughter of UNCLE MO stretches out to a distance that she should relish. She may be able to handle this field of limited winners right back. (3) HOLLYWOOD CAT was the beaten favorite on July 25th while making her 1st start since May. She should get a good stalking trip and I would expect improvement with the tightener under her belt. (11) CHA CHA HEELS is an “also eligible” entry meaning she would have to see a scratch from the main body of the race in order to go. If that happens she could be running best in the late stages. (6) ZENBENNIE usually shows good speed but others with designs on the engine might compromise her chances.
8 EIGHTH RACE
Lake Placid Stakes | 1 1/8 Miles (TURF) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | GRADE II STAKES | Purse: $300,000
(2) DADDY IS A LEGEND has positive course experience as she captured the Grade III Lake George on opening day. In a compact yet well matched field, she projects for a likely “stalk and pounce” journey and she could repeat beneath a jockey who has had a good meet here. (6) RUSHING FALL returns from a May break following a race that exhibited a change of tactics. She flashed good early speed that day the likes of which had not been seen in her previous 4 races, all victories. The 2017 BC Juvenile Filly Turf champion has worked well for the comeback and is strictly the horse to beat. (4) SIGNIFICANT FORM was the beaten favorite last out in the Grade I Belmont Invitational, a race wherein she encountered some trouble in the stretch. She also should get a good stalking type journey and a chance to prove she is this good.
9 NINTH RACE
Alabama Stakes | 1 1/4 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | GRADE I STAKES | Purse: $600,000
(3) MIDNIGHT BISOU hasn’t run a bad race in 8 lifetime starts and was beaten by the fabulous MONOMOY GIRL the last 2 times she lost. The lone Grade I winner in the field should go well making her 3rd start back from a brief freshening beneath regular rider Mike Smith. (8) TALK VEUVE TO ME has worked extremely well at Saratoga preparing for this and she will have the better part of the stretch to use her keen speed to gain decent early position despite the outside draw. On the negative side her jockey has been ice cold at the meet and there will be no margin for error against this talented assemblage! (4) SHE’S A JULIE moves up in class seeking her 3rd straight win. She should gain a share from a good stalking posture.
10 TENTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $50,000
(1) SYCAMORE LANE has more speed than he showed in his last at Delaware in June and he should be able to clear the 1st turn from his hedge draw. He can fire fresh beneath David Cohen and he may try to control the pace flagfall to finish. (3) NEOCLASSIC has run well over this course in the past but without a victory. If there is a pace meltdown he may make the last run a winning one. (2) ITALIAN CHARM ships from Kentucky and entices Javier Castellano to ride. He also has decent course experience here sans a victory. He could take all following a stalk and kick type of journey. (10) CALIFORNIA SWING likes this distance and he has a victory over the course to his credit. That said, he will need clever handling by Irad Ortiz from his wide post draw. There are some dangerous runners on the “also eligible” list who deserve a look if any scratches occur and they draw in.
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(Program note) My analysis today assumes all races scheduled for turf will indeed stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if any grass race is switched to the dirt! The scheduled grass races today are the 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th and 10th!
1 FIRST RACE
1 1/16 Miles (INNER TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $45,000
(2) AZZEDINE drops from 75K in search of his proper level for strong connections. The beaten favorite from his last has finished 2nd three times in 5 trips to the post and could finally get over the hump against this kind. I look for Javier Castellano to be prominent throughout from his hedge draw and he should prevail at a short price. (7) VALYCOVE ships from Chi-Town where he was the beaten favorite last out against better. Drawn widest that day, the post relief may allow for a better trip and the altered son of LEMON DROP KID could be in line for a major share. (9) END OF AN ERA will add the hood making his 3rd start of the year for an owner/trainer who spots them well with limited starters. 3rd in 3 of 5 lifetime, this 150K GIO PONTI offspring could take all with a perfect trip! (4) TELECOMMUNICATION shows good works while returning from a near 12 month hiatus when he endured a wide journey and came up empty against better. He is as good as any to complete the superfecta!
2 SECOND RACE
1 1/16 Miles (TURF) | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(8) HONEY WON’T debuts for strong connections with solid gate breezes on display. In a race where most have never started, it can pay to check the tote board but I don’t have that luxury 2 days early. I suspect this son of SOLDAT will give a good account of himself. (2) PERCEIVED is represented by the same connections as my top pick in the 1st race and frankly they’ve been taking everything not nailed down! This son of BLAME is one who wouldn’t mind this race washing to the main track but we certainly hope it stays on grass. He should be involved at a short price. (9) MEDINA RIDGE is another making his debut and he is as well bred as any for these conditions. The red hot Luis Saez takes the call and he should not be overlooked. (6) SOUTHERN BRIDGE should have gotten an education in his July 21st debut, a race in which he finished 5th but was only beaten 2 lengths. He could be right there with slight improvement.
3 THIRD RACE
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $70,000
(5) HELOOKSTHEPART steps up slightly following an even finish behind some of these on July 21st at half a furlong shorter. Johnny V. takes the call for a trainer he has ridden well for and this son of SONGANDAPRAYER looks to be the lone closer in a race that may have the necessary early pace to promote his late kick. Consistent as they come hitting the trifecta in 30 of 50 lifetime starts, “he looks the part” indeed! In a race where I could spot 4 runners out of 7, I will stop at the single selection who I think will get the best trip!
4 FOURTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(5) HE’S THE SOUPERWON gets off the rail following a likely useful debut where he finished well going half a furlong shorter on July 28th. That race was scheduled for turf but washed to the main track. The son of my 2010 top pick and Kentucky Derby winner SUPER SAVER would probably prefer the dirt surface and also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track. Unless one of the 1st time starters is a monster, he could improve quickly and prevail for trainer Mark Casse. (7) AHEAD OF PLAN debuts for Brown and Castellano and at a $475K purchase price, much is expected from this son of BIG DRAMA. (2) PRINCIPLED is another pricy entrant making his 1st start for Pletcher and Velazquez. A steady work pattern suggests he could go well at first asking.
5 FIFTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $64,000
(7) GYPSY JANIE was the beaten favorite at this level when last spotted on June 24th and she has been freshened since. The 4 time winner usually fires fresh and in a race that should have an honest pace, she may be passing some tired runners through the lane. (4) RICHIE’SLILWILDCAT ships from the Midwest with a perfect 2 for 2 record at this distance. Her style is no secret as she will be forwardly placed throughout but not without some company. If she somehow shakes loose she could take no end of catching. (3) OUR GIRL ABBY was an unlucky 2nd by a nose as the beaten favorite on July 21st. Up slightly in class along with the horse who beat her that day who also enters here, it is significant to note that the 3rd finisher from that heat won next out! She should move forward in making her 2nd start back from a March break.
6 SIXTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(5) WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO raced extremely wide while finishing with authority for 2nd in a similar event on July 28th and it shouldn’t take long for him to greet the lensman. (3) MOST MISCHIEF shows trouble lines in both races wherein he finished 3rd. He stretches out slightly and given a clean trip he could be right there from a stalking journey. (10) QUICK ENTRY displays a decent if unspectacular work pattern since May and he could get a good trip outside the pacesetters herein.
7 SEVENTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $77,000
(8) LA LA LOVELY was a prompt winner the 1st time she tried turf on June 23rd and now the daughter of UNCLE MO stretches out to a distance that she should relish. She may be able to handle this field of limited winners right back. (3) HOLLYWOOD CAT was the beaten favorite on July 25th while making her 1st start since May. She should get a good stalking trip and I would expect improvement with the tightener under her belt. (11) CHA CHA HEELS is an “also eligible” entry meaning she would have to see a scratch from the main body of the race in order to go. If that happens she could be running best in the late stages. (6) ZENBENNIE usually shows good speed but others with designs on the engine might compromise her chances.
8 EIGHTH RACE
Lake Placid Stakes | 1 1/8 Miles (TURF) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | GRADE II STAKES | Purse: $300,000
(2) DADDY IS A LEGEND has positive course experience as she captured the Grade III Lake George on opening day. In a compact yet well matched field, she projects for a likely “stalk and pounce” journey and she could repeat beneath a jockey who has had a good meet here. (6) RUSHING FALL returns from a May break following a race that exhibited a change of tactics. She flashed good early speed that day the likes of which had not been seen in her previous 4 races, all victories. The 2017 BC Juvenile Filly Turf champion has worked well for the comeback and is strictly the horse to beat. (4) SIGNIFICANT FORM was the beaten favorite last out in the Grade I Belmont Invitational, a race wherein she encountered some trouble in the stretch. She also should get a good stalking type journey and a chance to prove she is this good.
9 NINTH RACE
Alabama Stakes | 1 1/4 Miles | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | GRADE I STAKES | Purse: $600,000
(3) MIDNIGHT BISOU hasn’t run a bad race in 8 lifetime starts and was beaten by the fabulous MONOMOY GIRL the last 2 times she lost. The lone Grade I winner in the field should go well making her 3rd start back from a brief freshening beneath regular rider Mike Smith. (8) TALK VEUVE TO ME has worked extremely well at Saratoga preparing for this and she will have the better part of the stretch to use her keen speed to gain decent early position despite the outside draw. On the negative side her jockey has been ice cold at the meet and there will be no margin for error against this talented assemblage! (4) SHE’S A JULIE moves up in class seeking her 3rd straight win. She should gain a share from a good stalking posture.
10 TENTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $50,000
(1) SYCAMORE LANE has more speed than he showed in his last at Delaware in June and he should be able to clear the 1st turn from his hedge draw. He can fire fresh beneath David Cohen and he may try to control the pace flagfall to finish. (3) NEOCLASSIC has run well over this course in the past but without a victory. If there is a pace meltdown he may make the last run a winning one. (2) ITALIAN CHARM ships from Kentucky and entices Javier Castellano to ride. He also has decent course experience here sans a victory. He could take all following a stalk and kick type of journey. (10) CALIFORNIA SWING likes this distance and he has a victory over the course to his credit. That said, he will need clever handling by Irad Ortiz from his wide post draw. There are some dangerous runners on the “also eligible” list who deserve a look if any scratches occur and they draw in.
LL