IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY at TAMPA! Feb. 2nd (OK a day early)
Feb 1, 2022 9:42:53 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Feb 1, 2022 9:42:53 GMT -5
Wednesday, February 2nd
It was a down week from Sunday to Sunday, with $407 wagered and only $54.35 collected, erasing our modest profit, and leaving us $54 in the red on $2279 in bets after Day 35 of the meeting. So it goes…
1st – There are no winning angles in this one. McGoey’s piece went +9 early at 24-1 in turf debut, but that surface was very slow that day and I don’t know what to make of it. Ferraro is 47% ITM with UCEs and has a 47% ITM angle, the Plain FBK with Starship Precious (2). Hall’s piece has only two possible reasons for coming back fast: Carla’s Honor (8) is warmed up and ready or the Secretary needed help filling. 33% of the Dirt Sprints have had 7 or fewer starters, so I’m thinking it’s the former.
Exacta Box 2,4,8
2nd – Eros’s Girl (4) surprised at 38-1 with an above par effort (+3,+2) at this level two races back. The filly came up empty in the Gasparilla, but was reentered just 11 days later versus the boys, no less, before Ferraro got spooked by the entry of Morgan Point, a Pasco Stakes also ran, who won that N1X at even money, precipitating the Vet Scratch that day. Six days later, the girls get their own N1X and she appears yet again. Ferraro bombs with Class Changes and Shortenups and this 3YO adds Lasix (L1). She may have climaxed (no pun intended) while restless and waiting in her stall, but Eros’ arrow has hit its target, and I think I’m in love with this filly (or at the very least, smitten)!
Conditional $100 Win 4 for > 2-1 or
Weighted DDs 4/All (wherever the value is) for > 2-1
Saver Exactas 1,6/4 to cover
3rd – See R2
4th – Rattlesnake Ridge (6) was an APD at this distance at the last meeting, but has never come close to winning off the L1-3 in 7 tries lifetime.
Ten-year-old Sourcesandmethods (7) hasn’t been in the winner’s circle for 23 months.
In the mindf@$k entry of the card (#2), we offer two scenarios:
Arriagada looks to make Fortunate Friends eligible for the SALW5 condition for the next year (he’s 3-3 ITM with the OC + Dropdown in L5T but with no wins) or
Juan took the bait and made a bad claim and looks to cut his losses today.
Exacta Box 1,2,8
5th – Barbazon III may be fooling the crowd, but he’s not fooling us. This bastard has put over 9 lightly raced bombs here that were beaten by an average of 20 lengths in their previous starts. Cardoso can dig down deep and pull one out of his ass today (he is 6 & 24 on the lawn lifetime).
$10 ATB 3
6th – Dr. No finds another rube to explain away his loss to, this time the victim is Caramori. I bet he’s even better at his line of bullshit, then he is at making races look close. The shorter the price, the worse Go Time’s (1) chances.
Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2,3/1,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8 (24 bets)
7th – Escobar made her only Turf Dash win in L5T in last. A rightback win will be a heavy lift.
Princess Livia (4), an APD at 6F last meeting, appears to have gone wrong and Padilla is 0-8 with none ITM with 2TTs.
Pimental is 0-23 with DtoTs, with none ITM. Galvan is 0-26 with 2L4-8s.
Blair is the guy here. He’s 5 for 11 ITM with 3 bombs with the L4-8 + S and 26% Win on the Dropdown here. With an EPS of $4500, owner JC Terlep has expectations, I’m sure.
$10 ATB 3
8th – As bad as it looks, Into Paradise (6) must key the play with a 36 & 63 angle for Ryan. Derek has gone to Santos 21 times win L5T with 8 finishing ITM and the trainer has a healthy average ITM odds of $5.70-1.
Exacta Key Box 6/1,5,7 and 1,5,7/2,3,8,9/6 (12 bets)
9th – I was hoping to key on Lady Jean (6) here, as the 5YO’s Quirins have been on the steady improve, but 5F Turf Dash win here last April went 7 over today’s par, and that’s a about 8 lengths slower than what will be needed today.
Trifecta Box 1,2,3,6
It was a down week from Sunday to Sunday, with $407 wagered and only $54.35 collected, erasing our modest profit, and leaving us $54 in the red on $2279 in bets after Day 35 of the meeting. So it goes…
1st – There are no winning angles in this one. McGoey’s piece went +9 early at 24-1 in turf debut, but that surface was very slow that day and I don’t know what to make of it. Ferraro is 47% ITM with UCEs and has a 47% ITM angle, the Plain FBK with Starship Precious (2). Hall’s piece has only two possible reasons for coming back fast: Carla’s Honor (8) is warmed up and ready or the Secretary needed help filling. 33% of the Dirt Sprints have had 7 or fewer starters, so I’m thinking it’s the former.
Exacta Box 2,4,8
2nd – Eros’s Girl (4) surprised at 38-1 with an above par effort (+3,+2) at this level two races back. The filly came up empty in the Gasparilla, but was reentered just 11 days later versus the boys, no less, before Ferraro got spooked by the entry of Morgan Point, a Pasco Stakes also ran, who won that N1X at even money, precipitating the Vet Scratch that day. Six days later, the girls get their own N1X and she appears yet again. Ferraro bombs with Class Changes and Shortenups and this 3YO adds Lasix (L1). She may have climaxed (no pun intended) while restless and waiting in her stall, but Eros’ arrow has hit its target, and I think I’m in love with this filly (or at the very least, smitten)!
Conditional $100 Win 4 for > 2-1 or
Weighted DDs 4/All (wherever the value is) for > 2-1
Saver Exactas 1,6/4 to cover
3rd – See R2
4th – Rattlesnake Ridge (6) was an APD at this distance at the last meeting, but has never come close to winning off the L1-3 in 7 tries lifetime.
Ten-year-old Sourcesandmethods (7) hasn’t been in the winner’s circle for 23 months.
In the mindf@$k entry of the card (#2), we offer two scenarios:
Arriagada looks to make Fortunate Friends eligible for the SALW5 condition for the next year (he’s 3-3 ITM with the OC + Dropdown in L5T but with no wins) or
Juan took the bait and made a bad claim and looks to cut his losses today.
Exacta Box 1,2,8
5th – Barbazon III may be fooling the crowd, but he’s not fooling us. This bastard has put over 9 lightly raced bombs here that were beaten by an average of 20 lengths in their previous starts. Cardoso can dig down deep and pull one out of his ass today (he is 6 & 24 on the lawn lifetime).
$10 ATB 3
6th – Dr. No finds another rube to explain away his loss to, this time the victim is Caramori. I bet he’s even better at his line of bullshit, then he is at making races look close. The shorter the price, the worse Go Time’s (1) chances.
Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2,3/1,6,7/1,2,3,6,7,8 (24 bets)
7th – Escobar made her only Turf Dash win in L5T in last. A rightback win will be a heavy lift.
Princess Livia (4), an APD at 6F last meeting, appears to have gone wrong and Padilla is 0-8 with none ITM with 2TTs.
Pimental is 0-23 with DtoTs, with none ITM. Galvan is 0-26 with 2L4-8s.
Blair is the guy here. He’s 5 for 11 ITM with 3 bombs with the L4-8 + S and 26% Win on the Dropdown here. With an EPS of $4500, owner JC Terlep has expectations, I’m sure.
$10 ATB 3
8th – As bad as it looks, Into Paradise (6) must key the play with a 36 & 63 angle for Ryan. Derek has gone to Santos 21 times win L5T with 8 finishing ITM and the trainer has a healthy average ITM odds of $5.70-1.
Exacta Key Box 6/1,5,7 and 1,5,7/2,3,8,9/6 (12 bets)
9th – I was hoping to key on Lady Jean (6) here, as the 5YO’s Quirins have been on the steady improve, but 5F Turf Dash win here last April went 7 over today’s par, and that’s a about 8 lengths slower than what will be needed today.
Trifecta Box 1,2,3,6
