Dubai World Cup Carnival- Friday 1/28
Jan 26, 2022 11:19:55 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Jan 26, 2022 11:19:55 GMT -5
Third day of the carnival. Five turf races, three Listed stakes and a GII. UAE 1000 Guineas for 3yo fillies at a mile (dirt) drew an underwhelming field of six, because no one wants to take on two-for-two, heavy favorite Shahama.
{update: Dettori has Covid, will not be riding.}
MEY R1 (9:00am ET)- 6f Dubai Sprint Consolation (Conditions) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803697
For horses that didn't qualify for the Sprint later on the card. #10- Raaeb (12-1) ran here going 5F two weeks ago since an August layoff and raced up close early, but didn't have anything more to offer while still keeping on to the wire. Stretches out to his best distance today and should come forward for last effort. LosesDettori to the Godolphin stablemate and that should keep the price up a few points. #14- Ibn Malik (5-1) 9yo gelding missed all of 2021 but has raced here twice this season, running a close third in a 5F turf handicap, then finishing a decent fourth in 6F GIII dirt race a week ago. Antonio Fresu takes the mount and he's been riding well here this season. Likely to be some scratches in the Sprint, so some of these may slot into that field.
EX- 10,14/2,3,4,10,14 Result: 6,3,14 Batwan ($38.80) changed barns since his last race and had been concentrating on 5F races most recently, had some good stakes-form in France last season, but he wasn't expected to reverse form that quickly, hats off.
MEY R3 (10:10am ET)- 1m6f Al Khail Trophy (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803699
All Godolphin, all the time. Likely to complete the superfecta, at least. #4- Kemari (2-1) won the Queen's Vase (GII) at Royal Ascot in his third career start, then lost two of his next three by wide margins. Haven't heard much about him since October, but don't want to be beaten by the best horse in the race. #5- Siskany (4-1) was a top-level handicapper at 12F in GB last year, had a good AW prep for today at Kempton Park in December. Logical step-up and stretchout in here. #1- Dubai Future (5-2) is the in-form alternative to the top two, winning by five here two weeks ago going 12F. Waters are deeper in this, butFrankie's aboard and he really likes it here (8/3-3-0). Best non- Godolphin hope may be #8- Dubious Affair (15-1). June layoff, but she fires fresh, loves the distance, and could surprise from off-the-pace.
EX- 4,5/1,4,5,8,12 WIN- 8 Result: 5,6,12 Siskany ($12.50) made a nice forward move today and is one to follow going forward. Kemari seems to have an issue (mental rather than physical?) and he ran like a short horse today. Alignak was the one you needed to have, his older form said he fit with these but he really jumped up in this.
MEY R5 (11:20am ET)- 1m2f Zabeel Turf (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803701
#1- Start Safari (1-1) will be a deserving favorite in this Listed event. Won a GIII here last season, likes the course (6/3-1-1), prepped two weeks ago with a good second behind Dubai Future going longer. #12- Ya Hayati (15-1) won this last year, won a similar event in 2020. Fires fresh, hoping he stays anywhere near m/l odds.
EX- 1,12/1,5,10,12 WIN- 12 Result: 1,4,2 Star Safari ($4.00) was a prompt winner but he had to work for it after finding himself a bit farther back than expected. Pace was moderate and Marie's Diamond ran huge to be second, figured he was just a miler...oops.
MEY R6 (11:55am ET)- 7f Downtown Dubai Cup (Rated Conditions) (Dirt) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803702
Seems like two-thirds of the field is a toss here. #4- Imperial Empire (4-1) has done well on dirt since arriving in Dubai early, back in November. Two wins over C&D, then a better-than-it-looks sixth place finish behind Golden Goal two weeks ago in the Round 1 Challenge (GII) at a mile. Turns back to best distance, gets O'Shea to ride, big chance against this lesser group. #5- Mouheeb (10-1) is the wildcard of the race. 4yo was second in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Meydan last year, then won the Guineas before faltering in the UAE Derby which was too far for him. Won debut going 6F so the drop back to 7F should be fine, but have to wonder what his fitness level is going into today from March layoff. Is this a prep for the GIII mile next Friday? Taking positive view. Have to mention #12- Island Rule (8-1) which ran second to Quality Boone last time over this course and distance. Had a perfect inside stalking trip that day, now draws 9 hole, but is in light and gets blinkers-on for this, could surprise. Also using #3- Highland Dress (15-1) underneath in case he takes to the dirt, Buick aboard.
EX- 4,5/2,3,4,5,12 Result: 2,12,5 Mubakker ($7.10) was well-backed and ran to his odds in second start of the season. Island Rule was in front for much of the stretch run, only overtaken late, nice race. Mouheeb made a good return to the races, looked like he needed that, and perhaps a bit more distance as well.
MEY R7 (12:30pm ET)- 1m Zabeel Mile (Group 2) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803703
If the #1- Real World (4-5) that won his first four turf starts culminating in the GII Wildenstein at Longchamp shows up, he could win this by ten. I hope they offer triple wagering because that's the only way I could play it.
TRI- 1/3,10,11,12/3,10,11,12 Result: 1,3,10 Triple $87.70 Real World ($3.00) sat a nice stalking, inside trip from his rail draw and encountered no traffic sliding up the rail for a pretty easy victory. It will be interesting to see where they go next with him, perhaps 10F would be his ideal distance (8-10F range). Was hollering for Alfareeq to get up at the wire and he obliged. One Ruler ran better today, but it's starting to look like he was a precocious 2yo that hasn't really trained on.
MEY R8 (1:05pm ET)- 6f Dubai Sprint (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803704
Most competitive race on the card IMO. #3- Motafaawit (9-2) was closing fastest of all when third in the 5F Dubai Dash here two weeks ago. He seems much improved dropped back to sprints and should build off seasonal debut. Big chance. #4- Mutaraffa (9-2) won the Dubai Dash last out and has battled with Motafaawit three times over the last two seasons. Very consistent horse should be right there on the line. #1- Lazuli (7-1) has been away since a poor effort at Saratoga in the Troy Stakes (GIII) last August. Fires well when fresh, but reading this as strictly a prep for a Group race later in the Carnival. #7- Man of Promise (4-1) won this race in 2021, then tailed off here last season and went to the sidelines. Fires when fresh, has Buick in the irons, but has lots to prove today and wouldn't want to take a short price on him. They'd be looking at the Al Quoz Sprint (GI) on World Cup Day down the road. Three horses that I like at a price are #9- Buffer Zone (12-1) which is as honest as the day is long over in Bahrain, now moves to Fawzi Nass' barn and can be a piece of this; #10- Ejtilaab (20-1) is a consistent top-level handicapper in GB for Charlie Fellowes, prepped on the AW last month for this event; #13- Parsifal (8-1) was second and third in two Listed races in AUS in December going shorter, will be storming home given a hot pace up front.
EX- 3,4/3,4,7,9,10,13 WIN- 13 Result: 7,1,6 Man of Promise ($6.20) was more than ready for today's race, drawing away at the finish making it look like 2-1 was a gift. Lazuli couldn't match strides with the winner but set himself up for next time. Buffer Zone, Ejtilaab and Parsifal all ran quite well (4th, 5th, 6th) but couldn't get to the top three. Buffer Zone will win a race here with another effort like that, just needs to shop for a spot. Parsifal was closing but flattened out, probably wants 5F.
Wagered: 61.00 Returned: 87.70 Profit: 26.70
TW
{update: Dettori has Covid, will not be riding.}
MEY R1 (9:00am ET)- 6f Dubai Sprint Consolation (Conditions) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803697
For horses that didn't qualify for the Sprint later on the card. #10- Raaeb (12-1) ran here going 5F two weeks ago since an August layoff and raced up close early, but didn't have anything more to offer while still keeping on to the wire. Stretches out to his best distance today and should come forward for last effort. Loses
EX- 10,14/2,3,4,10,14 Result: 6,3,14 Batwan ($38.80) changed barns since his last race and had been concentrating on 5F races most recently, had some good stakes-form in France last season, but he wasn't expected to reverse form that quickly, hats off.
MEY R3 (10:10am ET)- 1m6f Al Khail Trophy (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803699
All Godolphin, all the time. Likely to complete the superfecta, at least. #4- Kemari (2-1) won the Queen's Vase (GII) at Royal Ascot in his third career start, then lost two of his next three by wide margins. Haven't heard much about him since October, but don't want to be beaten by the best horse in the race. #5- Siskany (4-1) was a top-level handicapper at 12F in GB last year, had a good AW prep for today at Kempton Park in December. Logical step-up and stretchout in here. #1- Dubai Future (5-2) is the in-form alternative to the top two, winning by five here two weeks ago going 12F. Waters are deeper in this, but
EX- 4,5/1,4,5,8,12 WIN- 8 Result: 5,6,12 Siskany ($12.50) made a nice forward move today and is one to follow going forward. Kemari seems to have an issue (mental rather than physical?) and he ran like a short horse today. Alignak was the one you needed to have, his older form said he fit with these but he really jumped up in this.
MEY R5 (11:20am ET)- 1m2f Zabeel Turf (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803701
#1- Start Safari (1-1) will be a deserving favorite in this Listed event. Won a GIII here last season, likes the course (6/3-1-1), prepped two weeks ago with a good second behind Dubai Future going longer. #12- Ya Hayati (15-1) won this last year, won a similar event in 2020. Fires fresh, hoping he stays anywhere near m/l odds.
EX- 1,12/1,5,10,12 WIN- 12 Result: 1,4,2 Star Safari ($4.00) was a prompt winner but he had to work for it after finding himself a bit farther back than expected. Pace was moderate and Marie's Diamond ran huge to be second, figured he was just a miler...oops.
MEY R6 (11:55am ET)- 7f Downtown Dubai Cup (Rated Conditions) (Dirt) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803702
Seems like two-thirds of the field is a toss here. #4- Imperial Empire (4-1) has done well on dirt since arriving in Dubai early, back in November. Two wins over C&D, then a better-than-it-looks sixth place finish behind Golden Goal two weeks ago in the Round 1 Challenge (GII) at a mile. Turns back to best distance, gets O'Shea to ride, big chance against this lesser group. #5- Mouheeb (10-1) is the wildcard of the race. 4yo was second in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Meydan last year, then won the Guineas before faltering in the UAE Derby which was too far for him. Won debut going 6F so the drop back to 7F should be fine, but have to wonder what his fitness level is going into today from March layoff. Is this a prep for the GIII mile next Friday? Taking positive view. Have to mention #12- Island Rule (8-1) which ran second to Quality Boone last time over this course and distance. Had a perfect inside stalking trip that day, now draws 9 hole, but is in light and gets blinkers-on for this, could surprise. Also using #3- Highland Dress (15-1) underneath in case he takes to the dirt, Buick aboard.
EX- 4,5/2,3,4,5,12 Result: 2,12,5 Mubakker ($7.10) was well-backed and ran to his odds in second start of the season. Island Rule was in front for much of the stretch run, only overtaken late, nice race. Mouheeb made a good return to the races, looked like he needed that, and perhaps a bit more distance as well.
MEY R7 (12:30pm ET)- 1m Zabeel Mile (Group 2) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803703
If the #1- Real World (4-5) that won his first four turf starts culminating in the GII Wildenstein at Longchamp shows up, he could win this by ten. I hope they offer triple wagering because that's the only way I could play it.
TRI- 1/3,10,11,12/3,10,11,12 Result: 1,3,10 Triple $87.70 Real World ($3.00) sat a nice stalking, inside trip from his rail draw and encountered no traffic sliding up the rail for a pretty easy victory. It will be interesting to see where they go next with him, perhaps 10F would be his ideal distance (8-10F range). Was hollering for Alfareeq to get up at the wire and he obliged. One Ruler ran better today, but it's starting to look like he was a precocious 2yo that hasn't really trained on.
MEY R8 (1:05pm ET)- 6f Dubai Sprint (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo+)
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2022-01-28/803704
Most competitive race on the card IMO. #3- Motafaawit (9-2) was closing fastest of all when third in the 5F Dubai Dash here two weeks ago. He seems much improved dropped back to sprints and should build off seasonal debut. Big chance. #4- Mutaraffa (9-2) won the Dubai Dash last out and has battled with Motafaawit three times over the last two seasons. Very consistent horse should be right there on the line. #1- Lazuli (7-1) has been away since a poor effort at Saratoga in the Troy Stakes (GIII) last August. Fires well when fresh, but reading this as strictly a prep for a Group race later in the Carnival. #7- Man of Promise (4-1) won this race in 2021, then tailed off here last season and went to the sidelines. Fires when fresh, has Buick in the irons, but has lots to prove today and wouldn't want to take a short price on him. They'd be looking at the Al Quoz Sprint (GI) on World Cup Day down the road. Three horses that I like at a price are #9- Buffer Zone (12-1) which is as honest as the day is long over in Bahrain, now moves to Fawzi Nass' barn and can be a piece of this; #10- Ejtilaab (20-1) is a consistent top-level handicapper in GB for Charlie Fellowes, prepped on the AW last month for this event; #13- Parsifal (8-1) was second and third in two Listed races in AUS in December going shorter, will be storming home given a hot pace up front.
EX- 3,4/3,4,7,9,10,13 WIN- 13 Result: 7,1,6 Man of Promise ($6.20) was more than ready for today's race, drawing away at the finish making it look like 2-1 was a gift. Lazuli couldn't match strides with the winner but set himself up for next time. Buffer Zone, Ejtilaab and Parsifal all ran quite well (4th, 5th, 6th) but couldn't get to the top three. Buffer Zone will win a race here with another effort like that, just needs to shop for a spot. Parsifal was closing but flattened out, probably wants 5F.
Wagered: 61.00 Returned: 87.70 Profit: 26.70
TW