LARRY'S PICKS for Saratoga on Friday, August 17th!
Aug 15, 2018 10:15:34 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Aug 15, 2018 10:15:34 GMT -5
Another party group outing this Friday "At The Rail" where the drinks are plentiful and the buffet is surprisingly quite good! Full card analysis, albeit 2 days out will follow. Good luck to those who play!
Welcome to beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country. Larry LaTour has analyzed the entire card in the following pages and hopefully the racing Gods will shine upon this fine group of invitees as we mix business with pleasure. Special thanks go out to our hosts from Sullivan, Keenan, Oliver & Violando, LLC for their generous hospitality in extending the invitation and the hope is that win or lose, everyone has an enjoyable day here at the Spa!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses that occupied the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire worldwide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1 FIRST RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Purse: $57,000
(4) WET YOUR WHISTLE ran on evenly for 4th after breaking slow on July 22nd and the connections will add the hood today. The 2 A.M. works since his last were upbeat and I suspect the equipment change may have been experimented with during those breezes. The lightly race son of STROLL could be the one in this well matched field. (5) LA MAQUINA GRIS turns back to a sprint after tiring late over a “yielding” course on August 8th. The 4 year old by THE FACTOR should show more speed today with the switch to Luis Saez and may have to be caught to be beat! (8) ALL CLEAR ran 2nd to a horse who won right back the only time he tried turf back in May. Apparently not much of an early riser, there are only 2 published works since but at least the latest was significantly improved. I’m getting mixed signals on a horse who is well bred for these conditions. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
2 SECOND RACE
Saratoga Dew Stakes | 1 1/8 Miles | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | Purse: $100,000
(1) FROSTIE ANNE wheels back on 5 days rest in search of her 6th straight victory. She has keen speed and should gain early position via her inside draw. If Junior Alvarado can save something for the stretch run she could prove to be best. (5) LAND MINE drifted out a bit in the latter stages of her July 26th comeback race, her 1st since last December. She likely needed the tightener and Manny Franco sticks when he had other options. She could be in line for a major share. (3) VERDANT PASTURES packs good speed and “bullets” in the holster returning from a 3 month break. She loses Franco to my 2nd pick but Jose Ortiz picks up the mount and he has been improving his stats over the last couple of weeks.
3 THIRD RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $25,000 | Purse: $39,000
(7) WHERESTHEBARBER cuts back slightly after running 2nd from a wide slot on August 6th. Jose Lezcano likely has a feel for the talent level now and this altered son of BUSTIN STONES could win today with slight improvement. (5) GIANT BOO BOO was the beaten favorite at the level on August 8th also travelling half a furlong further than asked for today. He appears to strictly be the one to beat! (6) STAG OF SYLVIA goes turf to dirt while turning back from a route. He has shown little over a series of turf races and the connections hope the surface switch combined with the slight class relief might wake him up.
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses that occupied the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire worldwide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1 FIRST RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Purse: $57,000
(4) WET YOUR WHISTLE ran on evenly for 4th after breaking slow on July 22nd and the connections will add the hood today. The 2 A.M. works since his last were upbeat and I suspect the equipment change may have been experimented with during those breezes. The lightly race son of STROLL could be the one in this well matched field. (5) LA MAQUINA GRIS turns back to a sprint after tiring late over a “yielding” course on August 8th. The 4 year old by THE FACTOR should show more speed today with the switch to Luis Saez and may have to be caught to be beat! (8) ALL CLEAR ran 2nd to a horse who won right back the only time he tried turf back in May. Apparently not much of an early riser, there are only 2 published works since but at least the latest was significantly improved. I’m getting mixed signals on a horse who is well bred for these conditions. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
2 SECOND RACE
Saratoga Dew Stakes | 1 1/8 Miles | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | Purse: $100,000
(1) FROSTIE ANNE wheels back on 5 days rest in search of her 6th straight victory. She has keen speed and should gain early position via her inside draw. If Junior Alvarado can save something for the stretch run she could prove to be best. (5) LAND MINE drifted out a bit in the latter stages of her July 26th comeback race, her 1st since last December. She likely needed the tightener and Manny Franco sticks when he had other options. She could be in line for a major share. (3) VERDANT PASTURES packs good speed and “bullets” in the holster returning from a 3 month break. She loses Franco to my 2nd pick but Jose Ortiz picks up the mount and he has been improving his stats over the last couple of weeks.
3 THIRD RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $25,000 | Purse: $39,000
(7) WHERESTHEBARBER cuts back slightly after running 2nd from a wide slot on August 6th. Jose Lezcano likely has a feel for the talent level now and this altered son of BUSTIN STONES could win today with slight improvement. (5) GIANT BOO BOO was the beaten favorite at the level on August 8th also travelling half a furlong further than asked for today. He appears to strictly be the one to beat! (6) STAG OF SYLVIA goes turf to dirt while turning back from a route. He has shown little over a series of turf races and the connections hope the surface switch combined with the slight class relief might wake him up.
4 FOURTH RACE
1 1/16 Miles (INNER TURF) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Purse: $57,000
(1) LA FEE VERTE wired a small field of Maiden Claimers last out and now will face the usually daunting task of beating winners 1st time back. Both times Joel Rosario climbed aboard this TIZNOW offspring, the filly exhibited keen speed. Trying turf for the 1st time but bred well for it, she may inherit the lead by default here and if her last gave her a measure of confidence, she could get brave on the engine and explode the tote board. Potential “Upset Special” courtesy of LARRY’S PICKS! (9) HOPE’S ROAR may not have adored the “yielding” course she encountered last out when finishing 6th with a trouble line attached. She switches to Javier Castellano while making her 3rd start back from an April break and she may be going best in the late stages of the race. (6) CODRINGTON also exits that July 25th foray over the “yielding” surface and seems to need “firm” footing to show her best. She could take all from a stalking posture if the weatherman cooperates! (3) HOPONTHEBUSGUS stretches out to this distance for only the 2nd time in her career after being the twice beaten favorite going shorter. She could play a part in the superfecta. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
5 FIFTH RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WT. | Purse: $75,000
(9) STEAM ENGINE shows 3 purposeful works at Saratoga since shipping from Kentucky for Brad Cox who as a 29% trainer usually places his runners where they belong. One of several 1st time starters in this field, jockey Luis Saez opts here instead of riding back FROSTED ICE a horse who took some money when unveiled on July 27th. Well bred for the distance, this MINESHAFT colt also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track although we certainly hope it is “fast and firm”! The NY bred could go well 1st out against his own kind. (10) BUSTIN HOFFMAN ships from Maryland with a Mid-Atlantic based jockey in tow and for a trainer who can get a horse ready 1st out. Don’t overlook at what could prove to be a good price! (3) KOSCIUSZKO debuts for trainer Patrick Quick and the horse coincidentally looks like he might be “quick” away from the gate based on the 3 “bullets” on display during the month of July. I suspect he may be the one to reel in when they turn for home!
6 SIXTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $77,000
(10) CIRQUE adds lasix making her 1st start as a 4 year old and she projects as the main speed in a race lacking much of that commodity. I envision jockey Pablo Fragoso hustling her out of the gate and if she clears into the turn she may take no end of catching. (6) SCORPION BOWL has never “turfed” but is well bred to try the surface especially at this sprint distance. She could garner a share beneath Junior Alvarado. (8) HANNAH’S SMILE returns from a 2 month break for good connections repeating a pattern that has allowed her to hit the trifecta in 5 of 8 starts. Her 2 highest speed figures were fired “fresh” including a solid effort over this course and distance a year ago August 3rd. She should finish stoutly from off the pace. (5) DREAM PASSAGE finally broke the Maiden last out albeit in $40,000.00 Claimers and the 2nd finisher has since broken her Maiden also. The $130,000.00 purchase is versatile enough to adapt to any pace scenario but she obviously likes to settle for minor awards! She seems a must use, especially underneath in exotics. (12) BEAUX ARTS displays keen speed at this trip but needs scratch help in order to face the starter. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
7 SEVENTH RACE
7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $87,000
(2) SWEET BYE AND BYE ships from Parx and goes turf to dirt for Steve Klesaris seeking her 5th victory in a row. Joshua Navarro tags along for the ride and it would appear that a front end larceny is on the agenda! She should be in front as far as she goes and that may be far enough. (5) DANCING ALL NIGHT nearly prevailed in her 1st start back from a year layoff and she has worked well since. This lightly raced 5 year old needs only slight improvement to be right there on the wire. (7) INHERITANCE makes her 1st start in nearly 2 years and the August 13th “bullet” jumps off the page indicative of readiness. She was bred to be a good one and might prove it right here!
8 EIGHTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $80,000
(9) HONOR UP will need clever handling from his wide draw but he has worked well since winning his last, the first time he stepped on turf. If Junior Alvarado can save some ground at some early point in the race he may inherit a good “stalk and pounce” journey. (5) MASCARELLO returns from Suffolk where he got the best of lesser and he has strung victories together before. He should be forwardly placed throughout over a course that he has shown an affinity for. (1) MO DIDDLEY & (1A) CATCH A CAB is a “coupled” entry due to common ownership trained by Mark Casse. Both were the beaten favorites in their last outings but either one or both could rebound for a major share in here. (6) MACAGONE has worked extremely well since his last race in June and he may be the pacesetter with an alert getaway.
(Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
9 NINTH RACE
Skidmore S. 5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Open | 2 Year Olds | Purse: $100,000
(8) SWAMP RAT has been given time to recover from his all out debut effort when he upset a Maiden Special field at nearly 25-1. Ice cold Julien Leparoux will climb aboard for the 1st time as the most likely closer in a race packed with speed. With clear sailing and a well timed move, he could greet the lensman! (9) CARTER CAT hasn’t run a bad race yet in 3 trips while trying to get on turf in the last 2. Regular rider Ricardo Santana opts to go elsewhere but the red hot Luis Saez may prove him wrong in his decision. He should go well from a stalking posture. (1) YES AND YES is owned and trained by Phil Gleaves who coincidentally also trains my top selection. He is another who has been given time to recover following a gutsy debut and while he’ll need some luck in avoiding a traffic jam, he could run on well late for Rajiv Maragh. (10) STILLWATER COVE got caught up in setting a blistering pace in a Group III event at Ascot last out and while talented, she may not find the pace scenario any easier here. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
10 TENTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $20,000 | Purse: $37,000
(7) BRIGHTEST STAR has been anything but in his brief career. In what amounts to a brutal assemblage of underachievers, he may have more upside potential than most and I will take a shot with him at what figures to be a huge price. (10) THE CHAMO usually runs his race but it is never enough as he finishes on the fringes. He could get over the hump today but by no means does he have to. (1) AMERICAN RULE removes the hood while making his 1st start since December on the West Coast. 5th that day to a horse that repeated, he could go well with the drop from MSW to the basement. (9) VIA CASTAGNA is another big class dropper making his 1st start of the year. Between the trainer and hired jockey they have a combined 5 wins for all of 2018. Your move!
1 1/16 Miles (INNER TURF) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Purse: $57,000
(1) LA FEE VERTE wired a small field of Maiden Claimers last out and now will face the usually daunting task of beating winners 1st time back. Both times Joel Rosario climbed aboard this TIZNOW offspring, the filly exhibited keen speed. Trying turf for the 1st time but bred well for it, she may inherit the lead by default here and if her last gave her a measure of confidence, she could get brave on the engine and explode the tote board. Potential “Upset Special” courtesy of LARRY’S PICKS! (9) HOPE’S ROAR may not have adored the “yielding” course she encountered last out when finishing 6th with a trouble line attached. She switches to Javier Castellano while making her 3rd start back from an April break and she may be going best in the late stages of the race. (6) CODRINGTON also exits that July 25th foray over the “yielding” surface and seems to need “firm” footing to show her best. She could take all from a stalking posture if the weatherman cooperates! (3) HOPONTHEBUSGUS stretches out to this distance for only the 2nd time in her career after being the twice beaten favorite going shorter. She could play a part in the superfecta. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
5 FIFTH RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WT. | Purse: $75,000
(9) STEAM ENGINE shows 3 purposeful works at Saratoga since shipping from Kentucky for Brad Cox who as a 29% trainer usually places his runners where they belong. One of several 1st time starters in this field, jockey Luis Saez opts here instead of riding back FROSTED ICE a horse who took some money when unveiled on July 27th. Well bred for the distance, this MINESHAFT colt also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track although we certainly hope it is “fast and firm”! The NY bred could go well 1st out against his own kind. (10) BUSTIN HOFFMAN ships from Maryland with a Mid-Atlantic based jockey in tow and for a trainer who can get a horse ready 1st out. Don’t overlook at what could prove to be a good price! (3) KOSCIUSZKO debuts for trainer Patrick Quick and the horse coincidentally looks like he might be “quick” away from the gate based on the 3 “bullets” on display during the month of July. I suspect he may be the one to reel in when they turn for home!
6 SIXTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $77,000
(10) CIRQUE adds lasix making her 1st start as a 4 year old and she projects as the main speed in a race lacking much of that commodity. I envision jockey Pablo Fragoso hustling her out of the gate and if she clears into the turn she may take no end of catching. (6) SCORPION BOWL has never “turfed” but is well bred to try the surface especially at this sprint distance. She could garner a share beneath Junior Alvarado. (8) HANNAH’S SMILE returns from a 2 month break for good connections repeating a pattern that has allowed her to hit the trifecta in 5 of 8 starts. Her 2 highest speed figures were fired “fresh” including a solid effort over this course and distance a year ago August 3rd. She should finish stoutly from off the pace. (5) DREAM PASSAGE finally broke the Maiden last out albeit in $40,000.00 Claimers and the 2nd finisher has since broken her Maiden also. The $130,000.00 purchase is versatile enough to adapt to any pace scenario but she obviously likes to settle for minor awards! She seems a must use, especially underneath in exotics. (12) BEAUX ARTS displays keen speed at this trip but needs scratch help in order to face the starter. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
7 SEVENTH RACE
7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $87,000
(2) SWEET BYE AND BYE ships from Parx and goes turf to dirt for Steve Klesaris seeking her 5th victory in a row. Joshua Navarro tags along for the ride and it would appear that a front end larceny is on the agenda! She should be in front as far as she goes and that may be far enough. (5) DANCING ALL NIGHT nearly prevailed in her 1st start back from a year layoff and she has worked well since. This lightly raced 5 year old needs only slight improvement to be right there on the wire. (7) INHERITANCE makes her 1st start in nearly 2 years and the August 13th “bullet” jumps off the page indicative of readiness. She was bred to be a good one and might prove it right here!
8 EIGHTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $40,000 | Purse: $80,000
(9) HONOR UP will need clever handling from his wide draw but he has worked well since winning his last, the first time he stepped on turf. If Junior Alvarado can save some ground at some early point in the race he may inherit a good “stalk and pounce” journey. (5) MASCARELLO returns from Suffolk where he got the best of lesser and he has strung victories together before. He should be forwardly placed throughout over a course that he has shown an affinity for. (1) MO DIDDLEY & (1A) CATCH A CAB is a “coupled” entry due to common ownership trained by Mark Casse. Both were the beaten favorites in their last outings but either one or both could rebound for a major share in here. (6) MACAGONE has worked extremely well since his last race in June and he may be the pacesetter with an alert getaway.
(Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
9 NINTH RACE
Skidmore S. 5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Open | 2 Year Olds | Purse: $100,000
(8) SWAMP RAT has been given time to recover from his all out debut effort when he upset a Maiden Special field at nearly 25-1. Ice cold Julien Leparoux will climb aboard for the 1st time as the most likely closer in a race packed with speed. With clear sailing and a well timed move, he could greet the lensman! (9) CARTER CAT hasn’t run a bad race yet in 3 trips while trying to get on turf in the last 2. Regular rider Ricardo Santana opts to go elsewhere but the red hot Luis Saez may prove him wrong in his decision. He should go well from a stalking posture. (1) YES AND YES is owned and trained by Phil Gleaves who coincidentally also trains my top selection. He is another who has been given time to recover following a gutsy debut and while he’ll need some luck in avoiding a traffic jam, he could run on well late for Rajiv Maragh. (10) STILLWATER COVE got caught up in setting a blistering pace in a Group III event at Ascot last out and while talented, she may not find the pace scenario any easier here. (Program note) The preceding analysis assumes this race will stay on the turf. Always give a look to horses labeled “Main Track Only” if this grass race is switched to the dirt!
10 TENTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $20,000 | Purse: $37,000
(7) BRIGHTEST STAR has been anything but in his brief career. In what amounts to a brutal assemblage of underachievers, he may have more upside potential than most and I will take a shot with him at what figures to be a huge price. (10) THE CHAMO usually runs his race but it is never enough as he finishes on the fringes. He could get over the hump today but by no means does he have to. (1) AMERICAN RULE removes the hood while making his 1st start since December on the West Coast. 5th that day to a horse that repeated, he could go well with the drop from MSW to the basement. (9) VIA CASTAGNA is another big class dropper making his 1st start of the year. Between the trainer and hired jockey they have a combined 5 wins for all of 2018. Your move!
LL
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