IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY at TAMPA!
Dec 28, 2021 15:19:02 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Dec 28, 2021 15:19:02 GMT -5
Wednesday, Dec. 29th
Spanabel strikes again with $100 FTS from Smith. Schistl had two short-term bomb cycles at the last meeting (of 3 and 5) and he’s got five lightly raced types in there today. The question is: Can he still bomb or do the sharks have his number? The Pick 5 & Pick 6 pots are beginning to get my attention but finding a couple of singles today may require Carnac the Magnificent. My Dad is 86 today. Happy Birthday Baba!
1st – U Know I B Lion (7) went -4 in last, but comes out of a race where the 1st & 3rd finishers were 8 for 23 Win in 2021. Conversely, Glory Roll (3) went 3 clicks better but the 1st and 3rd finishers in that race are 1 for 21 in 2021.
PID shippers had an IV of 0.58 last season and this one’s (1) transmission has been slipping for a year.
Exacta Box 3,7
2nd – Favoritism is often a critical factor when playing Delgado who has a UCE here (28 & 86). The Quirins hint that the 3 is the live one here after making big EP in last. Both are from top ten stable of Carole Star, but neither has one of Delgado’s preferred boys up.
91% of these dashes are won from < 2.5 BL at the 2nd Call and that creates a problem for Catirusia (5).
Exacta Key Box 3/6,7
3rd - Pass
4th – The 1 & 4 were above par for total energy in last. The 2 & 3 have trainers that win with firsters and 2YOs. Wilson has no record with UCEs and only 3 of 14 claimed from Hamm here have won in first three tries. Wilson is ok off the claim but is 0-15 with No Changes. Would you call this a No Change? I am.
Trifecta Box 1,2,3,4
$0.20 Pick 6 – 1,2,3,4/1,5,6/1,5,7/7,8/3/2,8 ($28.80)
5th – Tapsasional (1) went +14, +7 in last. Most of the field made next start at the N1X level again. Saucy Derek, however, dropped to an N3L and was an up-close 3rd. Bennett has a 64% ITM angle here, but none for win, but first try at this level in a year gets some respect. I’ve spent too much time on Reiner’s (2) last. Looked good on paper, but none produced afterward. Rigattieri was 21 & 50 here in L3T, 0-6 start means nothing. He as a 25 & 58 angle going, the Plain UC. Manning is 48 & 74 with his angle, gotta love that off the long layoff. Nunn on the RB could blow it up, but I think not.
Exacta Box 1,5,6 and Saver Trifectas 1,5,6/3,4/1,5,6 (12 bets)
6th – Common sense says 1, 5 & 7. Schistl often surprises and Dalton Lawrence has a history of bombing with Plain Distance Changes.
Exacta Box 1,5,7 and Trifectas 1,5,7/3,4,6/1,5,7 (18 bets)
7th – Blair’s piece went +2,+5 in last and he tries on the RB, this time for $4k EPS owners Terlep & Bradley. Irazu (8) made some big numbers versus better than these.
If alive in the Pick 6 after three legs… $3 Saver Pick 3 - 7,8/2,5,8,10/2,8 (16 bets)($48)
8th – IMO, Arriagada is the closest thing to a reliable single on the card. Juan is 44 & 66 with TtoD + Dropdown types and is 4-15 Win with the 2S + 2PTB angle. Ten-pound allowance won’t hurt either going 8.5F.
Conditional $50 Win 3 for 5-2
9th – We project this field to be 4 above par, more like an N4L then a legit N1X. From this perspective, the 2,4,5 & 8 come more clearly into focus.
Schistl is a dangerous S.O.B.
McAllen’s Our Destiny (4) has some big numbers on the NYRA circuit, but he doesn’t have much luck off the claim and goes to 4.7% Turf rider (in L4) Olaf Hernandez.
McCarthy more than doubles her ordinary strike rate with FBKs, but that ain’t saying much, however, my notes say she bombed seven times with Ferrer up in L3T.
Classy Fox Rox (8) is the obvious one to beat, but alas, the 10YO is a notorious bad breaker and may just beat himself.
If alive in the P6 or the P3 - Exactas 4,5/2,4,5,8 (6 bets) to cover all of today’s action.
Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/29/2021
Guessing the day after doldrums got to me on
Sunday.... I'd be remiss if I didn't give a hearty
shout out to my buddy Sky Spanabel who lopsided
the tote board in the finale to the tune of 49-1!!
Not surprising, as she seems to make a habit of
this whenever she sets up shop at a new venue...
it's not a fluke, as this little gal can ride with
the best of them, and she only seems to get
better all the time ...Way to go, Skyler !! ....
as a PSA, yuz guyz better keep an eye on her !!
Back to the bitness at hand .....
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 3, 6, 7
3) 1**
4) 1, 6
5) 2, 3, 4, 6
$12.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50
6) 1, 3
7) 4, 6, 8, 10
8) 3, 7
9) 4, 8, 9
$24.00
Best Bet **
Spanabel strikes again with $100 FTS from Smith. Schistl had two short-term bomb cycles at the last meeting (of 3 and 5) and he’s got five lightly raced types in there today. The question is: Can he still bomb or do the sharks have his number? The Pick 5 & Pick 6 pots are beginning to get my attention but finding a couple of singles today may require Carnac the Magnificent. My Dad is 86 today. Happy Birthday Baba!
1st – U Know I B Lion (7) went -4 in last, but comes out of a race where the 1st & 3rd finishers were 8 for 23 Win in 2021. Conversely, Glory Roll (3) went 3 clicks better but the 1st and 3rd finishers in that race are 1 for 21 in 2021.
PID shippers had an IV of 0.58 last season and this one’s (1) transmission has been slipping for a year.
Exacta Box 3,7
2nd – Favoritism is often a critical factor when playing Delgado who has a UCE here (28 & 86). The Quirins hint that the 3 is the live one here after making big EP in last. Both are from top ten stable of Carole Star, but neither has one of Delgado’s preferred boys up.
91% of these dashes are won from < 2.5 BL at the 2nd Call and that creates a problem for Catirusia (5).
Exacta Key Box 3/6,7
3rd - Pass
4th – The 1 & 4 were above par for total energy in last. The 2 & 3 have trainers that win with firsters and 2YOs. Wilson has no record with UCEs and only 3 of 14 claimed from Hamm here have won in first three tries. Wilson is ok off the claim but is 0-15 with No Changes. Would you call this a No Change? I am.
Trifecta Box 1,2,3,4
$0.20 Pick 6 – 1,2,3,4/1,5,6/1,5,7/7,8/3/2,8 ($28.80)
5th – Tapsasional (1) went +14, +7 in last. Most of the field made next start at the N1X level again. Saucy Derek, however, dropped to an N3L and was an up-close 3rd. Bennett has a 64% ITM angle here, but none for win, but first try at this level in a year gets some respect. I’ve spent too much time on Reiner’s (2) last. Looked good on paper, but none produced afterward. Rigattieri was 21 & 50 here in L3T, 0-6 start means nothing. He as a 25 & 58 angle going, the Plain UC. Manning is 48 & 74 with his angle, gotta love that off the long layoff. Nunn on the RB could blow it up, but I think not.
Exacta Box 1,5,6 and Saver Trifectas 1,5,6/3,4/1,5,6 (12 bets)
6th – Common sense says 1, 5 & 7. Schistl often surprises and Dalton Lawrence has a history of bombing with Plain Distance Changes.
Exacta Box 1,5,7 and Trifectas 1,5,7/3,4,6/1,5,7 (18 bets)
7th – Blair’s piece went +2,+5 in last and he tries on the RB, this time for $4k EPS owners Terlep & Bradley. Irazu (8) made some big numbers versus better than these.
If alive in the Pick 6 after three legs… $3 Saver Pick 3 - 7,8/2,5,8,10/2,8 (16 bets)($48)
8th – IMO, Arriagada is the closest thing to a reliable single on the card. Juan is 44 & 66 with TtoD + Dropdown types and is 4-15 Win with the 2S + 2PTB angle. Ten-pound allowance won’t hurt either going 8.5F.
Conditional $50 Win 3 for 5-2
9th – We project this field to be 4 above par, more like an N4L then a legit N1X. From this perspective, the 2,4,5 & 8 come more clearly into focus.
Schistl is a dangerous S.O.B.
McAllen’s Our Destiny (4) has some big numbers on the NYRA circuit, but he doesn’t have much luck off the claim and goes to 4.7% Turf rider (in L4) Olaf Hernandez.
McCarthy more than doubles her ordinary strike rate with FBKs, but that ain’t saying much, however, my notes say she bombed seven times with Ferrer up in L3T.
Classy Fox Rox (8) is the obvious one to beat, but alas, the 10YO is a notorious bad breaker and may just beat himself.
If alive in the P6 or the P3 - Exactas 4,5/2,4,5,8 (6 bets) to cover all of today’s action.
Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 12/29/2021
Guessing the day after doldrums got to me on
Sunday.... I'd be remiss if I didn't give a hearty
shout out to my buddy Sky Spanabel who lopsided
the tote board in the finale to the tune of 49-1!!
Not surprising, as she seems to make a habit of
this whenever she sets up shop at a new venue...
it's not a fluke, as this little gal can ride with
the best of them, and she only seems to get
better all the time ...Way to go, Skyler !! ....
as a PSA, yuz guyz better keep an eye on her !!
Back to the bitness at hand .....
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 3, 6, 7
3) 1**
4) 1, 6
5) 2, 3, 4, 6
$12.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50
6) 1, 3
7) 4, 6, 8, 10
8) 3, 7
9) 4, 8, 9
$24.00
Best Bet **
