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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 21, 2021 9:32:12 GMT -5
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,773
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Post by 1hooper on Nov 21, 2021 11:49:55 GMT -5
Godolphin is in the "feature". Dam was G1 placed as a maiden.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 22, 2021 16:09:09 GMT -5
Middle of the card has a nice sequence for a pk3 wager. Throwing 20 bucks at the opening day lineup.
TAM R5- Clm 16000 1 1/16 Mile (T) 3&up
#2- Projected (5-2) 9yo gelding is having a fine season (11/5-1-1), back in the day he was a G2 winner for Chad Brown and breeder Juddmonte. DQd from victory in his last, where he was inexplicably dropped way down in class off a fine victory against much better at MTH. Maybe that was a fire sale with the wheels about to come off, but he was claimed by Rodriguez who excels at FOTC. Horse had a victory in only start over this course, gets Castillo aboard which should keep the price up. #10- Sandy Lane Kitten (4-1) had terrific form in the Hendriks barn until he got claimed at DEL in July by Arriagada, who ran him in in a Listed stakes at a distance beyond his scope, followed by a decent effort against N2X at LRL, then a 7.5F turf start against N2X where he showed some of his old early speed before flattening out. Not sure what to expect today as far as running style, but from the outside draw I'd hope that Batista (11% T) would send him forward out of the chute and see what else goes early. Use 1,6 underneath in verticals.
$1 PK3- 2,10/2,6/1,6,8
TAM R6- MSW 26.5k 7 Furlongs 3&up F & M
#2- Candy Jar (2-1) tries 7F and dirt for the first time after eight turf sprints yielded four second place finishes. Bill Mott sent her to ELP for easier competition the last two, but still no dice. Horse moves over to Eoin Harty, who worked her a bullet at Hawthorne, three more works in the interim including nice 5F move last Friday over the TAM oval. Gets AP/HAW regular Rocco Bowen in the saddle. Filly either wins or flops. Not planting my flag and dying on that hill though. #6- Hitech Is Back (6-1) is a half to G2 winner Tonalist's Shape. Decent debut but regressed, got some time and came back in October over a sealed track at LRL where she was eased. No works since but trainer is good in this situation and recruits excellent sprint rider Pablo Morales for the ride.
TAM R7- OC 32000n2x 1 1/16 Mile (T) 3&up F & M
#1- Be Up (3-1) is a 3yo Augustin homebred filly with two wins in four starts, both at longer distances. Ran okay in minor stake at DEL, exited key race at SAR to win N1X next out at CNL. Logical contender under Daniel Centeno. #6- Zarina (10-1) had two wins at TAM earlier in her career, and won a $100K stake at GP as a 3yo. Only two runs this year, latest a nice third on the AW against better at GP. Will always need a pace to run into, and ought to get it today. M/L odds would be a gift IMO. #8- Serene (6-1) has two wins, on AW and dirt. Ran okay at AP to just miss in N1X, then was overmatched in paceless DG Oaks (Listed). Has a closing kick, and Bowen has two wins and a second aboard her.
EX- 6,8/1,4,6,8,10
TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,773
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Post by 1hooper on Nov 22, 2021 17:04:14 GMT -5
New announcer.
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,740
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Post by eye123 on Nov 22, 2021 17:42:29 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 22, 2021 17:47:07 GMT -5
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Post by cherokeescot on Nov 22, 2021 18:24:53 GMT -5
Would be surprised if All Fools Day does not Assert Dominance and do the Royal Biz in the second race.
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Post by johnnybattbd on Nov 23, 2021 13:59:42 GMT -5
Thanks to eye123 for the plug!
Free Play Wednesday – November 24th, 2021
1st – Happy Loudon (1) has a new home with Leading Owner Carole Star and JH Delgado (23% Win with PTBs), but this one looks like it needs a little work before going postward at Delgado’s typical 5-2 odds. Gonz is 42% ITM with her angle. Newcomer Steve Cahill will be making some waves but not with this cheapie, Camacho sticks for the “always on the improve” Gerald Brooks. Gotta suspect Samy knows something we don’t. If Rhone’s stats weren’t trending into the abyss here in Oldsmar, I’d say I love that pre- shipping, crushed on the grass and then trailed early combo (after a couple of solid efforts) but until I see improvement (from Bernell), Rhone gets only a minor piece.
Gimme She Dazzle (4). The 3YO was above par in all three sprints on the dirt here last Spring, then got 2nd win at Mth in first try. She was in over her head and now drops to the bottom while shipping from Del (IV 1.22). O’Connor has a 52% ITM angle, but none for win.
Exacta Key Box 4/6,8
2nd – Tampa layoffs have an IV of 0.73 before Christmas, but Mr. Bennett is 19% Win with Non-shipping Long Layoffs. He usually hits the ground running, but I’m a Doubting Thomas in this one. McGoey is full of surprises and Machado is 23% Win with PTBs.
All Fools Day (4) was above par on the last day of the meeting and appears to be the obvious choice, but Ward has no multiple angle, although he is 15% Win at Tampa with L4-8s, so reject the 90+ days away angle from Brisnet.
Win 4 (with only tepid enthusiasm)
3rd – I won’t touch this one, but I’ll lay the groundwork for you. Dini 2.0 and Arrnett were 20% Win and 18% Win respectively with 2YOs last season. Dini is like Rodney Dangerfield, he “gets no respect”. Despite a huge improvement in his game, his average win odds remain a generous 9-2. Arnett was 100% ITM here with Non-layoff Shippers at his first Tampa meeting, with 3 Wins in 7 tries. Rodolfo Garcia is 3 for 4 ITM here on the grass in L4T. Ochoa looks right in all ways but the FTT. Parra tries with FTS + FTT types and Glyshaw is 9-30 ITM on the lawn here with 3 Wins. Which ones display anything today? Your guess is as good as mine.
Pass
4th – Smith has Cotton Jim (son of Leading Tampa Sire High Cotton 11.5%). RG has a nice multiple angle here, the L1-3 + S + RtS, 39% Win. Raced forwardly early in first try with new connections and Smith is par with PTBs. Centeno takes the call.
Win 4
5th – The first staple race in the turf diet yields a better than expected field, so I’m looking for several defections and perhaps less than adequate value, but, Brooks’ piece is 77% ITM in all turf tries. Perfectly Magestic’s (5) optional claimers have offered a lot of cover. I’m looking for a surprise with Camacho up. Mr. Bennett is 38 & 62 with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown, but Gallardo will burn you badly on a regular basis. Arriagada didn’t get it done in 1st 3 OC but salvages his pride by shipping on the dropdown. He and Batista were 24 & 65 last season.
Exacta Box 5,6,10 and Saver Trifectas 5,6,10/1,7/5,6,10 (12 bets)
6th – Candy Jar (2) is from Candy Ride – 16.2% Winners here and Sharmadal (by Giant’s Causeway) a multiple G1 Winner across the pond. Godolfin was #2 in the owner standings last season. Harty outperforms with all six of his singles here (but has no multiple angle). Sharp 5F work a few days ago is encouraging. AP/Hawthorne rider doesn’t hurt chances. Schistl had 4 bombers with FTS and 2TSs last season. He’s tops with Trainer Value for Win. Tiznow has 12% Winners here.
Exacta Box 2,8 and Trifectas 2,8/1,4,10/2,8 (6 bets)
7th – Mr. Bennett has a nice bet against here, 0-25 with S + DtoT types. You’ll rarely get a toss like this one. Thomas was 87% ITM with the L1-3 + Shortenup in 20-21 at Tampa but is a tough sell at only 8% Win on the Rightback.
In last, Zarina (6) was beaten by Kahiko (winner of 5 of 8 and $122K in 2021) and Lovely Luvy (216K LT Earnings, including two recent ITM Black Type finishes recently). Stewart is 32% Win with the L1-3 + S + Stretchout angle and outperforms with Dropdowns and DtoT types. If he’s favored in this scenario,he’s 43 & 87. Working very sharply. Gallardo is up for Rodriguez and not Stewart, accidentally improving Zarina’s chances.
$100 DD 6/7 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,4,8,10/6/1,3,4,8,10 (20 bets) to cover
8th – Nick the Cardshark (7) faced all SALW6250s in last and Delgado is 43% Win when favored in this situation. He’s also 15 of 18 ITM with Dropdown + No Distance Change types. Ships from Mth (IV 1.23 before Christmas), gets Camacho and worked sharply last week.
Exactas 6,10/7 to cover (if alive in the DD)
9th – Kurtinecz bombed 3X with Layoffs on the Turf here recently. Made multiple above par final fractions on the lawn, has faced better, gets Centeno. Will she settle for being short?
Marrero looks like a schill for Parra, as the connections of the recent winner remain with Jesus Suarez. Bisono sticks.
Win 4 and Saver Exacta 6/4 to cover
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Post by UpInClass on Nov 23, 2021 23:35:48 GMT -5
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,773
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Post by 1hooper on Nov 24, 2021 8:41:05 GMT -5
Nice analysis by TW and Johnny B. Will be watching the card while baking this afternoon. 70 and sunny makes me jealous.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 24, 2021 14:21:35 GMT -5
Jose Ferrer having a great opening day, riding three out of the first four winners.
TW
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