Post by bobtailnag on Aug 8, 2018 12:20:51 GMT -5
This is also the DMR contest race of today and it's strange they chose this race because there is only 6 horses in the race. The highest odds horse is only at 6/1 ML and it's a Baffert horse - Show Me Da Lute. I believe he just might win it.
This will be his 2nd race after a 10 month layoff and, unusual for Baffert, but not exceedingly rare, it's after only 3 weeks off. That might be explained that coming back after an injury layoff Bob wanted to make sure he was 100% before pulling out all the stops. I think if the jockey was the culprit for a bad ride he wouldn't be keeping Padroza up for this one. Padroza broke 6th of 8 and kept the horse 6 wide almost the entire race. Frank Scatoni believes they ran that far out because it was the best part of the track. Maybe and maybe not. Going back several years, when I use to know how to handicap, I remember cashing some nice mutuels when Baffert would have two horses in a race and Padroza was on the longer odds runner. I was never afraid of putting my money on a Padroza horse.
Here's the big kicker for me - Lute went around 2 turns while being 6 wide, probably not being asked for a lot and still finished only 6 lengths behind the winner. Because the name of the trainer is Baffert I suspect we won't get 6/1 but it might be close to that. The down side: The lone work before this race was 1:15 for 6Fs - so unBaffertlike. I'm thinking if Bob thought, after that first race, the horse was still not at least 95%, he wouldn't be in this race.