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BC Mile (Turf)
Nov 3, 2021 22:28:23 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 3, 2021 22:28:23 GMT -5
Early speed: Blowout, Smooth Like Strait
Closer: Casa Creed, Ivar, Raging Bull, Space Blues
(10) Blowout (8-1)- Early speed. Consistent as they come. Two wins this year when able to hold on gamely after setting a moderate pace. Against males in the Fourstardave (GI), went a bit too fast and was passed late by three others. Gritty victory in 'WAYI' First Lady (GI) at KEE last out. Speed is always dangerous, but this is the best field she's ever faced, by far. Grade- C
Trainer Chad Brown, on owner Peter Brant's desire to run here instead of in the Matriarch (GI) later in the Del Mar meet, where he has Regal Glory to run
“He said he’d rather take the free roll, so to speak, with the entry fee for this kind of race on a turf course we believe she really likes, and take a shot.”
(13) Casa Creed (15-1)- Closer. Better as a closing sprinter. Been beaten by many of these. Post draw does no favor. Would be a major upset. Grade- D
(11) Got Stormy (10-1)- Stalker. One top level effort this year, winning the Fourstardave (GI) at SAR over a course she loves. Did win the Matriarch (GI) here in 2019. Respect her body of work, but siding against for the win. Grade- C
Trainer Mark Casse
"She 1-for-1 at Del Mar. For her it's about sharp turns. She has about as good a kick around sharp turns of any horse I've ever trained. And I think that's what makes her so effective. And that's why she's won the Fourstardave twice. It was on the inner turf at Saratoga."
(8) Hit the Road (15-1)- Stalker. Third-best of the SoCal three entered here. Split horses to win the Kilroe (GI) at SA in March, hasn't found that form since. John Velazquez takes the mount, displacing Florent Geroux. Deserves his shot on his home turf. Grade- C
Trainer Dan Blacker
“We’re on course for the Breeders’ Cup. We’re not going to be one of the favorites, but I think we’ve got as good of a chance of winning as anyone. He came out of the last race in good form. He’s got good energy. He’s won stakes races at Del Mar before. He seems to be ready for a big run.”
(7) In Love (8-1)- Stalker. Lightly-raced, improving 5yo gelding. Turned the corner (blinkers-on) with a victory in the TVG at KD, followed up that effort with a strong finish to take down the KEE Turf Mile (GI). One more forward move puts him into the conversation. Grade- C
Trainer Paulo Lobo
"When he came back last April, he wasn't the same horse that showed up here (from Argentina) in the first two races. We ran him at Keeneland on the dirt, he didn't run well. We ran at Churchill in an allowance, he ran good, then we went to the graded stakes, he failed, and then talking with Alberto, we decided let's try Chicago, maybe a softer spot over there. And then he won, but he won and if you saw him at the three-eighths pole, he was going to pass by them easily, and he did but he kind of stopped and waited for the horse inside. Then we decided to put him in blinkers, and maybe it's the key. He went to Kentucky Downs and won very easily and his next race, the Keeneland Mile, he was very, very impressive."
(14) Ivar (12-1)- Closer. Fourth in this race last year, but only two starts this season. Was a tough-trip fourth last time behind stablemate In Love. Probably not conditioned enough for this test, but a quality horse. Grade- C
Trainer Lobo
"We gave him a winter break (after the Breeders' Cup) and brought him back in the (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic, G1T), and he came out with a problem from that race (after finishing sixth). We treated him, we gave him two months off, and then we spoke in the middle of the year and said, 'Let's try the Breeders' Cup,' but we needed a race for him. I didn't want to ship him, he was coming from a long layoff. We ran in the Keeneland Mile and he ran a very good race. He had a little trouble turning for home; the horse inside bumped the horse in the middle and the horse in the middle bumped my horse, probably could have cost me the second place that day. But we were glad he came back in perfect shape, eating, very happy. He enjoyed this race back in Keeneland. I think (his form is) going up."
(1) Master of The Seas (12-1)- Stalker. Godolphin/Appleby gets James Doyle in the irons for this. Brilliant in the Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket, just headed on the line by Poetic Flare. Had a setback thereafter, returned in the Joel S. (GII) at Newmarket grabbing third while not having a clear run of it, then foundered over unsuitable ground at Ascot in the QE II (GI) last out. Grade- B
Trainer Charlie Appleby
“We probably saw him at his best when he was just touched off in the Guineas on quick ground. He won the Craven Stakes before that Guineas second, then met with a setback. I was delighted with his comeback run in the Joel Stakes. He’s most definitely come forward from it fitness-wise. At Champions Day the ground was just too soft for him. I was keen though to get another run into him because he’d missed a large chunk of the summer. He’s come out of that race well and I think back at a mile on quick ground will suit him.”
(6) Mo Forza (5-1)- Stalker. HFTC. Consistent as they come, and the best of the three SoCal entrants. Won the Del Mar Mile (GII) in August after a long layoff, followed that up with a GII win at SA. Flavien Prat rides again, has won four in a row on him. Drew nicely, should be well positioned when they turn for home. Big chance on his best form. Grade- B
Great backstory from Jay Hovdey
www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/254563/mo-forza-primed-for-breeders-cup-mile
Trainer Peter Miller
“I 100% believe Mo Forza deserves the opportunity to compete against the best. He might be the best North American runner in a race the Europeans have won a lot over the years. We love Del Mar and consider it our home track. Right now Mo’s doing great and we look forward to him getting a start against the best of the best in his division.”
(9) Mother Earth (8-1)- Closer. Consistent. Has had a long season after winning the 1000 Guineas on 3yo debut. Didn't quite handle the Ascot going, or maybe the top-notch competition in the QE II (GI) last time. Probably looking at a placing as her ceiling, but O'Brien and Moore are a formidable team. Grade- B
Trainer Aidan O'Brien
“Mother Earth has been unlucky and I thought her last run at Ascot could be her best as she clocked the final two furlongs better than any other horse’s time in the race. She can on the other hand be at the mercy of a slow pace sometimes, but though in an ideal world maybe a little lower (drawn) would have helped her, I still think she’s not drawn badly (in stall nine). She travels well and quickens well and she’s in great form.”
(12) Pearls Galore (12-1)- Stalker. Quick from the gate, so she may be sent forward from post 12 by Billy Lee. Consistent filly has had a progressive 4yo season, just missing in the Matron S. (GI) while finishing ahead of hard-luck Mother Earth, then getting a no-shame second to Space Blues in the GI Foret at Longchamp over heavy ground. In peak form right now. Grade- B
Trainer Paddy Twomey
“Pearls Galore traveled over well, she’s settled into the routine here lovely and enjoying the training. She’s cantered on the track the last two days, everything has gone well, we’re looking forward to Saturday. Del Mar is a lovely track, the turf will be quick and it’ll suit her. She’s nibble, neat and tidy and I think she’ll deal with the demands of the track very well on the day.”
(4) Raging Bull (15-1)- Closer. Runs best when fresh. Has a previous win at Del Mar. Made a bit of a run after sitting far behind the slow pace in the Woodbine Mile (GI). Form remains inconsistent, however, and others seem more likely. Grade- C
Trainer Chad Brown
“Raging Bull is going to love getting back to the firm ground and he loves Del Mar. “That horse is sitting on a big race. He's a little dirtied up his last two starts. He didn't run badly, he just ran third and Dettori said he didn't handle the turf on the turn; was slipping out from under him. He will love being back here.”
(2) Smooth Like Strait (10-1)- Early speed. HFTC. Consistent front-runner has been fed a steady diet of GI & GII races since last year, finishing first or second in all but one of them. With Blowout drawn well outside him, he figures to take the early lead under Umberto Rispoli. Has a good chance to hit the board if he can moderate the early pace. Grade- B
(3) Space Blues (3-1)- Closer. Explosive turn-of-foot. Loves 7F. Easily won City of York S. (GII) in August over good ground, then was super-impressive bolting up on command in the GI Foret at Longchamp in a career-best performance. Mile should be no problem, has a win and a second at 8.5F when starting off career. Needs a clear run, two drawn inside of him should go out and he can tuck in behind. Grade- A
Trainer Charlie Appleby
“We’ve been delighted with his last two starts when winning both the York Stakes and then the Foret. This will be the last run of his career; I’d imagine we’ll be retiring him after this. He’s done us proud. I feel a sharp mile round Del Mar will suit him. As we’ve all seen he’s a great traveller. It’ll be quicker ground than he’s ran on in his last two starts, but it doesn’t worry me as he won in Saudi Arabia on quick ground, and at Deauville. He’s a very versatile horse. He’ll travel for fun around there, and if the gaps appear, he’s got the acceleration.”
(5) Vin De Garde (20-1)- Stalker. Ran a fine second behind Lord North in the Dubai Turf (GI) at Meydan in March, but otherwise form is very inconsistent. Finished well down the field in GII prep for this. Others seem more likely. Grade- C
Top selection: Space Blues
Contenders: Mo Forza, Mother Earth
Must use underneath: In Love, Master of The Seas, Pearls Galore
TW
Closer: Casa Creed, Ivar, Raging Bull, Space Blues
(10) Blowout (8-1)- Early speed. Consistent as they come. Two wins this year when able to hold on gamely after setting a moderate pace. Against males in the Fourstardave (GI), went a bit too fast and was passed late by three others. Gritty victory in 'WAYI' First Lady (GI) at KEE last out. Speed is always dangerous, but this is the best field she's ever faced, by far. Grade- C
Trainer Chad Brown, on owner Peter Brant's desire to run here instead of in the Matriarch (GI) later in the Del Mar meet, where he has Regal Glory to run
“He said he’d rather take the free roll, so to speak, with the entry fee for this kind of race on a turf course we believe she really likes, and take a shot.”
(13) Casa Creed (15-1)- Closer. Better as a closing sprinter. Been beaten by many of these. Post draw does no favor. Would be a major upset. Grade- D
(11) Got Stormy (10-1)- Stalker. One top level effort this year, winning the Fourstardave (GI) at SAR over a course she loves. Did win the Matriarch (GI) here in 2019. Respect her body of work, but siding against for the win. Grade- C
Trainer Mark Casse
"She 1-for-1 at Del Mar. For her it's about sharp turns. She has about as good a kick around sharp turns of any horse I've ever trained. And I think that's what makes her so effective. And that's why she's won the Fourstardave twice. It was on the inner turf at Saratoga."
Trainer Dan Blacker
“We’re on course for the Breeders’ Cup. We’re not going to be one of the favorites, but I think we’ve got as good of a chance of winning as anyone. He came out of the last race in good form. He’s got good energy. He’s won stakes races at Del Mar before. He seems to be ready for a big run.”
(7) In Love (8-1)- Stalker. Lightly-raced, improving 5yo gelding. Turned the corner (blinkers-on) with a victory in the TVG at KD, followed up that effort with a strong finish to take down the KEE Turf Mile (GI). One more forward move puts him into the conversation. Grade- C
Trainer Paulo Lobo
"When he came back last April, he wasn't the same horse that showed up here (from Argentina) in the first two races. We ran him at Keeneland on the dirt, he didn't run well. We ran at Churchill in an allowance, he ran good, then we went to the graded stakes, he failed, and then talking with Alberto, we decided let's try Chicago, maybe a softer spot over there. And then he won, but he won and if you saw him at the three-eighths pole, he was going to pass by them easily, and he did but he kind of stopped and waited for the horse inside. Then we decided to put him in blinkers, and maybe it's the key. He went to Kentucky Downs and won very easily and his next race, the Keeneland Mile, he was very, very impressive."
(14) Ivar (12-1)- Closer. Fourth in this race last year, but only two starts this season. Was a tough-trip fourth last time behind stablemate In Love. Probably not conditioned enough for this test, but a quality horse. Grade- C
Trainer Lobo
"We gave him a winter break (after the Breeders' Cup) and brought him back in the (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic, G1T), and he came out with a problem from that race (after finishing sixth). We treated him, we gave him two months off, and then we spoke in the middle of the year and said, 'Let's try the Breeders' Cup,' but we needed a race for him. I didn't want to ship him, he was coming from a long layoff. We ran in the Keeneland Mile and he ran a very good race. He had a little trouble turning for home; the horse inside bumped the horse in the middle and the horse in the middle bumped my horse, probably could have cost me the second place that day. But we were glad he came back in perfect shape, eating, very happy. He enjoyed this race back in Keeneland. I think (his form is) going up."
(1) Master of The Seas (12-1)- Stalker. Godolphin/Appleby gets James Doyle in the irons for this. Brilliant in the Two Thousand Guineas at Newmarket, just headed on the line by Poetic Flare. Had a setback thereafter, returned in the Joel S. (GII) at Newmarket grabbing third while not having a clear run of it, then foundered over unsuitable ground at Ascot in the QE II (GI) last out. Grade- B
Trainer Charlie Appleby
“We probably saw him at his best when he was just touched off in the Guineas on quick ground. He won the Craven Stakes before that Guineas second, then met with a setback. I was delighted with his comeback run in the Joel Stakes. He’s most definitely come forward from it fitness-wise. At Champions Day the ground was just too soft for him. I was keen though to get another run into him because he’d missed a large chunk of the summer. He’s come out of that race well and I think back at a mile on quick ground will suit him.”
(6) Mo Forza (5-1)- Stalker. HFTC. Consistent as they come, and the best of the three SoCal entrants. Won the Del Mar Mile (GII) in August after a long layoff, followed that up with a GII win at SA. Flavien Prat rides again, has won four in a row on him. Drew nicely, should be well positioned when they turn for home. Big chance on his best form. Grade- B
Great backstory from Jay Hovdey
www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/254563/mo-forza-primed-for-breeders-cup-mile
Trainer Peter Miller
“I 100% believe Mo Forza deserves the opportunity to compete against the best. He might be the best North American runner in a race the Europeans have won a lot over the years. We love Del Mar and consider it our home track. Right now Mo’s doing great and we look forward to him getting a start against the best of the best in his division.”
(9) Mother Earth (8-1)- Closer. Consistent. Has had a long season after winning the 1000 Guineas on 3yo debut. Didn't quite handle the Ascot going, or maybe the top-notch competition in the QE II (GI) last time. Probably looking at a placing as her ceiling, but O'Brien and Moore are a formidable team. Grade- B
Trainer Aidan O'Brien
“Mother Earth has been unlucky and I thought her last run at Ascot could be her best as she clocked the final two furlongs better than any other horse’s time in the race. She can on the other hand be at the mercy of a slow pace sometimes, but though in an ideal world maybe a little lower (drawn) would have helped her, I still think she’s not drawn badly (in stall nine). She travels well and quickens well and she’s in great form.”
(12) Pearls Galore (12-1)- Stalker. Quick from the gate, so she may be sent forward from post 12 by Billy Lee. Consistent filly has had a progressive 4yo season, just missing in the Matron S. (GI) while finishing ahead of hard-luck Mother Earth, then getting a no-shame second to Space Blues in the GI Foret at Longchamp over heavy ground. In peak form right now. Grade- B
Trainer Paddy Twomey
“Pearls Galore traveled over well, she’s settled into the routine here lovely and enjoying the training. She’s cantered on the track the last two days, everything has gone well, we’re looking forward to Saturday. Del Mar is a lovely track, the turf will be quick and it’ll suit her. She’s nibble, neat and tidy and I think she’ll deal with the demands of the track very well on the day.”
(4) Raging Bull (15-1)- Closer. Runs best when fresh. Has a previous win at Del Mar. Made a bit of a run after sitting far behind the slow pace in the Woodbine Mile (GI). Form remains inconsistent, however, and others seem more likely. Grade- C
Trainer Chad Brown
“Raging Bull is going to love getting back to the firm ground and he loves Del Mar. “That horse is sitting on a big race. He's a little dirtied up his last two starts. He didn't run badly, he just ran third and Dettori said he didn't handle the turf on the turn; was slipping out from under him. He will love being back here.”
(2) Smooth Like Strait (10-1)- Early speed. HFTC. Consistent front-runner has been fed a steady diet of GI & GII races since last year, finishing first or second in all but one of them. With Blowout drawn well outside him, he figures to take the early lead under Umberto Rispoli. Has a good chance to hit the board if he can moderate the early pace. Grade- B
(3) Space Blues (3-1)- Closer. Explosive turn-of-foot. Loves 7F. Easily won City of York S. (GII) in August over good ground, then was super-impressive bolting up on command in the GI Foret at Longchamp in a career-best performance. Mile should be no problem, has a win and a second at 8.5F when starting off career. Needs a clear run, two drawn inside of him should go out and he can tuck in behind. Grade- A
Trainer Charlie Appleby
“We’ve been delighted with his last two starts when winning both the York Stakes and then the Foret. This will be the last run of his career; I’d imagine we’ll be retiring him after this. He’s done us proud. I feel a sharp mile round Del Mar will suit him. As we’ve all seen he’s a great traveller. It’ll be quicker ground than he’s ran on in his last two starts, but it doesn’t worry me as he won in Saudi Arabia on quick ground, and at Deauville. He’s a very versatile horse. He’ll travel for fun around there, and if the gaps appear, he’s got the acceleration.”
(5) Vin De Garde (20-1)- Stalker. Ran a fine second behind Lord North in the Dubai Turf (GI) at Meydan in March, but otherwise form is very inconsistent. Finished well down the field in GII prep for this. Others seem more likely. Grade- C
Top selection: Space Blues
Contenders: Mo Forza, Mother Earth
Must use underneath: In Love, Master of The Seas, Pearls Galore
TW
