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BC Filly & Mare Turf
Nov 3, 2021 10:28:27 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 3, 2021 10:28:27 GMT -5
Early speed: Going to Vegas
Closer: Acanella, Dogtag, Loves Only You, My Sister Nat, Ocean Road, Pocket Square, War Like Goddess
(3) Acanella (12-1)- Closer. 3yo filly showed little until surprise win over some good ones in Snow Fairy S. (GIII) in August at 9F, where she galloped strongly through the wire. Tried the Matron S. (GI) at a mile in last, was too far behind a slow pace, never in contention. Not sure she wants to go this far, not ready for these anyways IMO. Grade- C
Irish Times
Acanella, winner of the Snow Fairy Stakes in August, is a late shot at landing a top-flight prize in 2021 as afterwards she will remain in the US to continue her career.
Trainer Ger Lyons
“Basically, we found out categorically in the Matron the mile isn’t Acanella’s trip. A mile plus is her trip. The Snow Fairy was perfect for her. And while we knew she was going to America we said why not take in the Filly & Mare, so here we go. We will be running to win but if you ran first three in a Grade One we’d have done our job perfectly well and then it’s over to the next guy to bring her to the next level.”
(12) Audarya (5-1)- Stalker. Outside draw doesn't help, but only three or four others are likely to go forward so she may have a good spot early. Seasonal debut was a strong finishing second behind Love at Royal Ascot over good ground. Made the lead but was caught late by Grand Glory in the Jean Romanet (GI) at Deauville in August. Was outfinished over heavy ground but made a strong run behind winner Rougir in the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp, repeating the pattern she used to take down this race last year, when going a shorter route of ground. Hasn't been 11F but shouldn't be an issue. May have to attempt to outfinish Love, which isn't easy, but should be right there at the line. Grade- B
Trainer James Fanshawe, after the Longchamp race
“She ran very well. She was fine after the race and was good this morning. She came there to run really well, and the ground just found her out.”
(11) Dogtag (30-1)- Closer. Couldn't get to Going to Vegas in last two, seems to have plateaued this season in graded-company. Eleven furlongs doesn't do her any favors either. Seems destined for a mid-pack finish in here, although m/l odds are a bit harsh. Grade- C
Trainer Richard Mandella
“She’s run very well and just been unlucky a few times. We’ll keep tinkering with her and hope it works out.”
(1) Going to Vegas (12-1)- Early speed. HFTC. Improved form this season, will benefit from an expected slow early pace. Progressive in last three races, stealing a GI last out with a crawling first 6F, holding off the finishers by a head. The cavalry is a lot more formidable in this heat. Expecting her to get swallowed up late, unless no one pushes her along early. Grade- C
Trainer Richard Baltas
"Going to Vegas is doing fabulous. I mean, she just worked a half-mile here on Sunday—in typical fashion strong the whole way. She came out of it great and is doing as good as she could do. She's happy; she's got great energy to jog today."
(6) Love (4-1)- Stalker. Wants good-firm ground. 4yo debut was a wire-to-wire win over Audarya in Prince of Wales' (GI) at Royal Ascot. Returned to Ascot in July and bore no shame finishing third behind Derby-winner Adayar and Mishriff, which beat her again in the Juddmonte (GI) at York. Ran a winning race at the Curragh in the Blandford S. (GII) only to get pipped on the line by an improving Team Valor 3yo filly. Connections would have preferred the BC Turf, but needed to adjust sights in order to get other stablemates in that event. Grade- A
Trainer Aidan O'Brien
"For her to win a Prince of Wales first time out was very difficult. That form is there. Her next couple of runs were a little bit below par, but we would say that was maybe because the pace was bit messy and she likes an even pace. After that, she had a prep for the Arc (the Blandford Stakes), and it was treated as such, but we were very happy with that run. She nearly ran up to her top rating to be second. She's fresh, she's well and will like the fast ground. The track and the mile-and-three-furlongs won't be a problem."
(8) Loves Only You (4-1)- Closer. Much-improved 5yo mare shipped to Dubai for the $5M Sheema Classic (GI) and fought Mishriff and Chrono Genesis (JPN) gamely down the lane, missing by a half-length. Shipped over to Hong Kong and took the QEII Cup (GI) in April. Break until August, where she ran second to the tactical white filly Sodashi in a GII. This is a serious horse. Grade- A
Twinspires Edge
Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has already succeeded on the world stage. In 2016, he dispatched Real Steel – a full brother to Loves Only You – to capture the Dubai Turf (G1) on World Cup night. In 2019, his Lys Gracieux took Australia’s prestigious Cox Plate (G1) en route to Japanese Horse of the Year Honors. Yahagi also trains last year’s Japanese Triple Crown champion, Contrail. Loves Only You, who herself added to Yahagi’s international resume in Hong Kong, has Breeders’ Cup-winning Hall of Famers on both sides of her pedigree. As a blueblood daughter of Deep Impact, she counts Sunday Silence as her paternal grandsire. She is also a direct female-line descendant of Mile legend Miesque, who factors as her third dam (great-granddam).
(9) My Sister Nat (15-1)- Deep closer. Up the track in this event last year, but that was way too short for her (9.5F). Tried but failed twice against War Like Goddess at SAR. Won the Waya S. (GIII) again in latest, which seems to be her level. Good mare, just a cut below the best of these. Grade- C
Trainer Chad Brown
“They (Pocket Square and My Sister Nat) seem like they don’t have quite the résumé as the other horses in there at the Grade 1 level, but they’re training well. It’s the Breeders’ Cup, anything can happen. I feel like they deserve a shot and could get a piece if things go their way. It’s the most challenging race we’re in, I think, based on what we have and what we have to run against.”
(10) Ocean Road (20-1)- Closer. 3yo filly has only an AW victory from five starts. Finished well in GIII at Newmarket last time, but an ITM finish here would be a shock. Grade- D
Trainer Hugo Palmer
“She was third in the Lingfield Oaks Trial – and then from a terrible draw, on ground she hated, she finished sixth in the Oaks at Epsom. She wasn’t able to run then until the Pride Stakes at Newmarket, where she got behind a wall of horses and met trouble in-running. She ran on well to finish third – it was a career-best performance. I think she’ll be much better suited by fast ground, (and) stepping up to one mile and three furlongs at Del Mar should be to her advantage as well. She’s going to need to step up – and she’s going to mix it with the likes of (Aidan O’Brien’s) Love.”
(2) Pocket Square (15-1)- Closer. No match for Althiqa and Summer Romance in two GIs at BEL and SAR. Looked better taking N3X and GIII latest in five-horse fields, but wasn't running any faster. Eleven furlongs not sure to suit either. Many others more likely. Grade- C
Trainer Brown
“I’m really pleased with how she came out of the race and I’m really happy the way she’s put a couple of nice wins together now – impressive wins. We have her back on track. We’ve always thought a lot of her.”
(5) Queen Supreme (20-1)- Stalker. Won two consecutive runnings of the Cartier Paddock S. (GI) in SAf going 9F, which is a BC 'WAYI' race. Gary Barber bought into her early this year, and it took a while for her to get to GB where her prep work would take place. Ran last in the Joel S. (GII) at Newmarket going a mile, and eleven furlongs just seems beyond her scope. First preference was for the mile, but she was rated lowest and had no shot of making that event. Almost no hope. Grade- D
(4) Rougir (6-1)- Stalker. Improving 3yo filly kept on well behind Joan of Arc in Prix de Diane (GI), fought hard when just missing behind Mother Earth in Rothschild (GI), finally broke through as a last out winner of Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp going 10F over heavy ground, beating Grand Glory by a nose. Handles soft and heavy going, unclear if she'll travel well on firm. Cannot dismiss in current form. Grade- B
Co-owner Pauline Chehboub
"Rougir's run well numerous times this season and has now achieved her objective in winning at Group 1 level. She's come out of the Opera in great form so this is the logical race for her. We're not worried about the slightly longer trip because Rougir's main requirement is to have a good pace to run at and so American racing should suit her."
(7) War Like Goddess (7-2)- Deep Closer. Progressive 4yo filly is six-of-seven lifetime, losing only seasonal debut going too short a distance in a GIII. Won GII Glens Falls at SAR coming from last, six-wide into the stretch and drawing off under a hand ride from Julien Leparoux. Latest was a similar performance in GI Flower Bowl at the Spa, where she quickened strongly and edged away easily. Three-for-three at 11 furlongs. Grade- A
Trainer Bill Mott, after the Flower Bowl
"I thought it was a very good effort. When she’s going to the front, it’s like poetry in motion.”
Top selection: Loves Only You, War Like Goddess
Contenders: Audarya, Love, Rougir
Must use underneath: Going to Vegas
TW
Closer: Acanella, Dogtag, Loves Only You, My Sister Nat, Ocean Road, Pocket Square, War Like Goddess
(3) Acanella (12-1)- Closer. 3yo filly showed little until surprise win over some good ones in Snow Fairy S. (GIII) in August at 9F, where she galloped strongly through the wire. Tried the Matron S. (GI) at a mile in last, was too far behind a slow pace, never in contention. Not sure she wants to go this far, not ready for these anyways IMO. Grade- C
Irish Times
Acanella, winner of the Snow Fairy Stakes in August, is a late shot at landing a top-flight prize in 2021 as afterwards she will remain in the US to continue her career.
Trainer Ger Lyons
“Basically, we found out categorically in the Matron the mile isn’t Acanella’s trip. A mile plus is her trip. The Snow Fairy was perfect for her. And while we knew she was going to America we said why not take in the Filly & Mare, so here we go. We will be running to win but if you ran first three in a Grade One we’d have done our job perfectly well and then it’s over to the next guy to bring her to the next level.”
(12) Audarya (5-1)- Stalker. Outside draw doesn't help, but only three or four others are likely to go forward so she may have a good spot early. Seasonal debut was a strong finishing second behind Love at Royal Ascot over good ground. Made the lead but was caught late by Grand Glory in the Jean Romanet (GI) at Deauville in August. Was outfinished over heavy ground but made a strong run behind winner Rougir in the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp, repeating the pattern she used to take down this race last year, when going a shorter route of ground. Hasn't been 11F but shouldn't be an issue. May have to attempt to outfinish Love, which isn't easy, but should be right there at the line. Grade- B
Trainer James Fanshawe, after the Longchamp race
“She ran very well. She was fine after the race and was good this morning. She came there to run really well, and the ground just found her out.”
(11) Dogtag (30-1)- Closer. Couldn't get to Going to Vegas in last two, seems to have plateaued this season in graded-company. Eleven furlongs doesn't do her any favors either. Seems destined for a mid-pack finish in here, although m/l odds are a bit harsh. Grade- C
Trainer Richard Mandella
“She’s run very well and just been unlucky a few times. We’ll keep tinkering with her and hope it works out.”
(1) Going to Vegas (12-1)- Early speed. HFTC. Improved form this season, will benefit from an expected slow early pace. Progressive in last three races, stealing a GI last out with a crawling first 6F, holding off the finishers by a head. The cavalry is a lot more formidable in this heat. Expecting her to get swallowed up late, unless no one pushes her along early. Grade- C
Trainer Richard Baltas
"Going to Vegas is doing fabulous. I mean, she just worked a half-mile here on Sunday—in typical fashion strong the whole way. She came out of it great and is doing as good as she could do. She's happy; she's got great energy to jog today."
(6) Love (4-1)- Stalker. Wants good-firm ground. 4yo debut was a wire-to-wire win over Audarya in Prince of Wales' (GI) at Royal Ascot. Returned to Ascot in July and bore no shame finishing third behind Derby-winner Adayar and Mishriff, which beat her again in the Juddmonte (GI) at York. Ran a winning race at the Curragh in the Blandford S. (GII) only to get pipped on the line by an improving Team Valor 3yo filly. Connections would have preferred the BC Turf, but needed to adjust sights in order to get other stablemates in that event. Grade- A
Trainer Aidan O'Brien
"For her to win a Prince of Wales first time out was very difficult. That form is there. Her next couple of runs were a little bit below par, but we would say that was maybe because the pace was bit messy and she likes an even pace. After that, she had a prep for the Arc (the Blandford Stakes), and it was treated as such, but we were very happy with that run. She nearly ran up to her top rating to be second. She's fresh, she's well and will like the fast ground. The track and the mile-and-three-furlongs won't be a problem."
(8) Loves Only You (4-1)- Closer. Much-improved 5yo mare shipped to Dubai for the $5M Sheema Classic (GI) and fought Mishriff and Chrono Genesis (JPN) gamely down the lane, missing by a half-length. Shipped over to Hong Kong and took the QEII Cup (GI) in April. Break until August, where she ran second to the tactical white filly Sodashi in a GII. This is a serious horse. Grade- A
Twinspires Edge
Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has already succeeded on the world stage. In 2016, he dispatched Real Steel – a full brother to Loves Only You – to capture the Dubai Turf (G1) on World Cup night. In 2019, his Lys Gracieux took Australia’s prestigious Cox Plate (G1) en route to Japanese Horse of the Year Honors. Yahagi also trains last year’s Japanese Triple Crown champion, Contrail. Loves Only You, who herself added to Yahagi’s international resume in Hong Kong, has Breeders’ Cup-winning Hall of Famers on both sides of her pedigree. As a blueblood daughter of Deep Impact, she counts Sunday Silence as her paternal grandsire. She is also a direct female-line descendant of Mile legend Miesque, who factors as her third dam (great-granddam).
(9) My Sister Nat (15-1)- Deep closer. Up the track in this event last year, but that was way too short for her (9.5F). Tried but failed twice against War Like Goddess at SAR. Won the Waya S. (GIII) again in latest, which seems to be her level. Good mare, just a cut below the best of these. Grade- C
Trainer Chad Brown
“They (Pocket Square and My Sister Nat) seem like they don’t have quite the résumé as the other horses in there at the Grade 1 level, but they’re training well. It’s the Breeders’ Cup, anything can happen. I feel like they deserve a shot and could get a piece if things go their way. It’s the most challenging race we’re in, I think, based on what we have and what we have to run against.”
(10) Ocean Road (20-1)- Closer. 3yo filly has only an AW victory from five starts. Finished well in GIII at Newmarket last time, but an ITM finish here would be a shock. Grade- D
Trainer Hugo Palmer
“She was third in the Lingfield Oaks Trial – and then from a terrible draw, on ground she hated, she finished sixth in the Oaks at Epsom. She wasn’t able to run then until the Pride Stakes at Newmarket, where she got behind a wall of horses and met trouble in-running. She ran on well to finish third – it was a career-best performance. I think she’ll be much better suited by fast ground, (and) stepping up to one mile and three furlongs at Del Mar should be to her advantage as well. She’s going to need to step up – and she’s going to mix it with the likes of (Aidan O’Brien’s) Love.”
(2) Pocket Square (15-1)- Closer. No match for Althiqa and Summer Romance in two GIs at BEL and SAR. Looked better taking N3X and GIII latest in five-horse fields, but wasn't running any faster. Eleven furlongs not sure to suit either. Many others more likely. Grade- C
Trainer Brown
“I’m really pleased with how she came out of the race and I’m really happy the way she’s put a couple of nice wins together now – impressive wins. We have her back on track. We’ve always thought a lot of her.”
(5) Queen Supreme (20-1)- Stalker. Won two consecutive runnings of the Cartier Paddock S. (GI) in SAf going 9F, which is a BC 'WAYI' race. Gary Barber bought into her early this year, and it took a while for her to get to GB where her prep work would take place. Ran last in the Joel S. (GII) at Newmarket going a mile, and eleven furlongs just seems beyond her scope. First preference was for the mile, but she was rated lowest and had no shot of making that event. Almost no hope. Grade- D
(4) Rougir (6-1)- Stalker. Improving 3yo filly kept on well behind Joan of Arc in Prix de Diane (GI), fought hard when just missing behind Mother Earth in Rothschild (GI), finally broke through as a last out winner of Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp going 10F over heavy ground, beating Grand Glory by a nose. Handles soft and heavy going, unclear if she'll travel well on firm. Cannot dismiss in current form. Grade- B
Co-owner Pauline Chehboub
"Rougir's run well numerous times this season and has now achieved her objective in winning at Group 1 level. She's come out of the Opera in great form so this is the logical race for her. We're not worried about the slightly longer trip because Rougir's main requirement is to have a good pace to run at and so American racing should suit her."
(7) War Like Goddess (7-2)- Deep Closer. Progressive 4yo filly is six-of-seven lifetime, losing only seasonal debut going too short a distance in a GIII. Won GII Glens Falls at SAR coming from last, six-wide into the stretch and drawing off under a hand ride from Julien Leparoux. Latest was a similar performance in GI Flower Bowl at the Spa, where she quickened strongly and edged away easily. Three-for-three at 11 furlongs. Grade- A
Trainer Bill Mott, after the Flower Bowl
"I thought it was a very good effort. When she’s going to the front, it’s like poetry in motion.”
Top selection: Loves Only You, War Like Goddess
Contenders: Audarya, Love, Rougir
Must use underneath: Going to Vegas
TW
