Stuff

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www.andheretheycome.com/breeders-cup-results.html   (2020 results)  (click images below to enlarge)

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www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup

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Horseracingnation:

If you followed the Del Mar meet this past summer, you might have noticed the tremendous bias that characterized the turf sprint races. More than 60 percent of the races were won by horses exiting post positions 1 to 3, regardless of running style. Horses coming from the outside were severely compromised. In addition, if your horse was more than two lengths off the pace leader as they hit the top of the stretch, it was going to be tough to win the race.
Make sure to give extra consideration to horses drawing on the inside. In addition, make sure your top contenders figure to be no more than a couple lengths off the pace leader as they turn for home.
As far as the European shippers are concerned, they struggle going these turf sprints stateside. Their sprint races are run on a straightaway, and the turn at Del Mar is particularly tight. As you evaluate the European contenders, make sure they are five-furlong specialists, are smaller in frame and show a good turn of foot. But in general, favor U.S.-based horses.
Turf route running styles
Though the Santa Anita and Del Mar turf courses are similar in composition, off-the-pace and closers don’t perform as well on the Santa Anita lawn as they do on the Del Mar grass. Trainers will tell you that closers who hit the board but struggled to win at Santa Anita move up big-time when they come over to compete on the Del Mar turf course.
When the Breeders’ Cup was run at Del Mar in 2017, all six turf races (including the Turf Sprint) were won by horses that closed from off the pace – mostly from mid-pack. In general, at any venue where the Breeders’ Cup is run, it is tough to wire the field in these turf races. For example, in the Mile race, you have to go back to 1992 to find the last horse to go wire to wire in that race – and it was the immortal Lure.
This past summer at Del Mar, closers accounted for essentially half of the wins, and at Santa Anita, closers won at about a 20 percent clip.
Dirt surface insights
When races are run at 6 furlongs on the dirt, as on any other surface, the preferred Energy Distribution Profile at Del Mar is a pace or presser type. But that changes when you get to races that are run from 6.5 furlongs to one mile. At those distances, it is very difficult for a horse to wire the field, even when the pace is around par. With Breeders’ Cup dirt races, the pace is usually swift and pressured, making the wire-to-wire feat even more difficult to achieve. Obviously, in short fields with a dominant pace/presser type who gets away with modest fractions, a gate-to-wire win is achievable.
From a post-position standpoint, it isn’t really an issue as horses from the outside win their fair share of races at Del Mar. It is the inside part of the dirt track (especially in sprint races) that can wreak havoc on outcomes if the dead rail bias is in play. Although it doesn’t manifest as much at the start of the fall meet, my notes from the last few summer meets show that for about the first week of the meeting, you do not want a horse that draws the 1 post in a sprint race. That certainly is not a great place to be anyway in these larger Breeders’ Cup fields, but it is even more of concern when that dead rail bias is in play at Del Mar. Watch the races that are run on opening day (Thursday) and on the Friday undercard to see whether you pick up any hints of this bias being in play.
One key note on this dirt surface. It is much deeper than it was when the Breeders’ Cup was at Del Mar 4 years ago. This was in part in response to the proliferation of breakdowns at Santa Anita a few years ago. It’s not as though a horse can’t ship in and get over it, but they really need to work on it – even the horses coming in from Santa Anita – to best acclimate to this tiring surface.

[eye123]

A thought...if Jackie's Warrior runs his last race (a 2 on the sheets) he wins easy, but is he set to bounce off of that? (Leaving it open for Dr Schivel, to move forward(off his last #) or Following Seas or Special Reserve to win here. Value here to "take a shot" against Jackie's Warrior ? Just a thought.

[mattcoll]

Absolutely taking a shot against Jackie's warrior.....or any even money shot in a BC race. He's a beast on the pace and the longer distance wins say he'll be finishing, but it's bigger and better field than he has ever faced at 6F, he might run out of time against a horse with a better trip like the 9 horse (who has two G1 sprint wins at Del Mar and I'd feel silly not using). Or Jackie might just be that good and crush them.