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BC Turf Sprint
Nov 2, 2021 16:04:50 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 2, 2021 16:04:50 GMT -5
Early speed: Charmaine's Mia, Golden Pal, Lieutenant Dan
Closer: Extravagant Kid, Fast Boat, Kimari?
(6) A Case of You (8-1)- Stalker. Shortened up to 5F in last two, including a just-up-in-time win over heavy ground in the Prix de l'Abbaye (GI). Appears better with soft-heavy going. Ronan Whelan comes over to ride, but not sure racing a sharp 5F around a turn will suit him best. Grade- B
Trainer Ado McGuiness
“He travelled over really well, and the guys told me he was in great form. The flying didn’t take anything out of him. We’re hoping for a low draw now. The draw is very important over there, because it’s a very tight track – but he won’t win it if I leave him at home. The last (race) was a big day. People were saying he wasn’t fast enough, but the Abbaye is as fast a five furlongs as you’ll ever get."
(5) Arrest Me Red (12-1)- Stalker. Two workmanlike wins in Listed stake at SAR, then a GIII at BEL. 3yo has only two starts this year, probably lacks the seasoning to take on elders in a GI right now. Tab for next year. Grade- C
Trainer Wesley Ward
“He was getting outworked (on the KEE dirt) and for a big, sturdy bugger you'd expect a lot more because he's a sturdy and imposing-type horse. He's like a big tank. I put him with just average horses and they bested him in the mornings. We got him up to Saratoga on the turf and away he went. There's horses-for-courses and horses-for-surfaces and this guy is a grass specialist.”
(8) Caravel (20-1)- Stalker. Declining form in two efforts against older males. Needs firm ground, had no chance over chewed-up course at PRX last out. 5F on firm ground against f&m is her forte. Grade- C
Trainer Graham Motion, before the Turf Monster
"If we want to get her to the Breeders' Cup this is the best spot to get her there with the timing and distance of the race. It's five weeks since she's ran and six weeks to the Breeders' Cup. So timing wise it's perfect. It's a short ship for us being at Fair Hill. And it's five furlongs. I think it's the best race to get her to the Breeders' Cup but obviously she's going to have to run really well to get to that point."
(7) Charmaine's Mia (30-1)- Early speed. Not sure how you shorten up a horse like this back to 5F after a season of routing. Got thumped by Lieutenant Dan down the hillside last time in the Eddie D (GII). Seems like a quality miler against f&m. Grade- D
DRF
Charmaine’s Mia is scheduled to be sold as a racing or broodmare prospect at the November breeding stock sale at Keeneland on Nov. 10.
Trainer Phil D'Amato
“She’ll be out the door the next day." (Don't let it hit you in the ass...)
(2) Emaraaty Ana (5-1)- Stalker. Found his best form in the second half on the season. Just missed in the Nunthorpe (GI) at York, finishing well behind a hot pace (thanks, Golden Pal), then stretched out to 6F in the Haydock Sprint Cup (GI), holding on for the win to just deny Starman on the line. A repeat of either of those efforts would make him tough to beat. Grade- A
Trainer Kevin Ryan, after the Sprint Cup
"He's as good a horse as I've trained. His work in the morning is brilliant. I think he's the right horse for America. He can travel and fast ground won't worry him. I have to talk to Sheikh Mohammed Obaid but I think he's tailor-made for the Breeders' Cup this year."
(12) Extravagant Kid (12-1)- Closer. Trainer Brendan Walsh reaches out to Ryan Moore for the mount. Moore rode him to victory in the $1M Al Quoz Sprint (6F,GI) at Meydan back in March. Ran well at Royal Ascot in the King's Stand (GI) grabbing third, but his subsequent Newmarket race was a disaster, and his comebacker at KEE inspired little confidence. Grade- C
(11) Fast Boat (12-1)- Closer. Two tries at 6F were underwhelming this season, but his 5.5F races at CD & SAR resulted in victories, with a visually impressive, strong finish at the Spa in the Troy (GIII). His outside draw will keep him from getting pinned down, Tyler Gaffalione needs to find a clear path and not get stopped at any point. Grade- B
Trainer Joe Sharp, after the Troy
“The biggest thing that seems to help him is the firm turf course. It was very firm that day. His turn-of-foot is much more significant."
(10) Gear Jockey (5-1)- Stalker. Enjoying a fine 4yo season with four wins in eight starts. Progressed to top form over his last three races following a ten-week break. Fast Boat outfinished him at SAR from a ground-saving post, but he returned the favor at KD when laying much closer to the pace. The best of the US horses, but I think Fast Boat is an overlay if you agree with Gear Jockey's odds, which I do. Grade- B
Trainer Rusty Arnold, on finding the hole card
“We sat down and said, ‘Let’s sprint the horse. He’s just not finishing off, and he shows a lot of talent'. We’ve sprinted him three times on turf, and I think we’ve found his game.”
(1) Glass Slippers (6-1)- Stalker. Defending champion needs firm ground for her best. Abbreviated campaign this season, following last year's road map, if not quite as lucratively. Best effort was a third over good ground at the Curragh in the Flying Five (GI), hitting the front a furlong out before Romantic Proposal knifed through the field to grab the victory, with A Case of You a neck better in second. Maybe not quite as sharp as last year, but has had a month to fine tune. Jockey Tom Eaves must get her to break smoothly from the rail draw or it will be a long day. Grade- B
Trainer Ryan
"It's five furlongs this year and it was five and a half in 2020 but they're quite keen to give it a go and she's in great form. She ran really well in France despite the conditions. She goes with cut in the ground but she doesn't want it that deep, it was pure determination on her part that got her into the position she reached. She leaves everything on the track, blood, sweat, and tears, and she brings her A-game every time."
(3) Golden Pal (7-2)- Early speed. Only three starts this year. Won the Quick Call (GIII) against 3yos at SAR well enough, but was too headstrong and imploded against older in the Nunthorpe (GI) at York. Won the Woodford (GII) at KEE last time, but it wasn't a particularly impressive effort, and he doesn't seem to have improved from last year. Can't believe he's the m/l favorite for this event. Grade- C
Trainer Ward, who clearly disagrees with me
"I really believe that Golden Pal is probably going to end up being the best horse I've ever trained. If he gets away from there in the first jump, depending on how fast they go up front, the race will be his to lose."
(9) Kimari (6-1)- Closer. Can run on both turf and dirt at the highest level, which is rare. Off since April, was being prepped for SAR until a problem arose, got some more time off. 5F may be too short for her style, but she's a fast filly. Rosario aboard is a plus. Too many ?? for me, but may have a saver on her if she looks the part on race day. Grade- C
Trainer Ward
"We went up to Saratoga and she had a really nice breeze on the grass. She came out of the work a little bit off behind and we jogged her for a bit and she didn't come out of it like we'd like to see. We erred on the side of caution and brought her back to Kentucky and gave her time. Our original plan was to go in the Filly & Mare Sprint but, unfortunately, with the time that we lost we just couldn't make the seven furlongs on the dirt."
(4) Lieutenant Dan (6-1)- Early speed. CA-bred. HFTC. I don't know what he was beating in the Green Flash (GIII) here at DMR in August, but that was a 'much-the-best' effort, dueling all the way 'round and then drawing away. Won the Eddie D (GII) down the hillside last out, clearly at the top of his game if that's good enough. Grade- B
Jockey Geovanni Franco, after the Green Flash
“No special instructions for me. I know this horse well. Since he’s come back from his (13-month) layoff, he’s more puffed up. He’s acting like a bully. He’s doing good now. When I made the lead in the straight, I wasn’t worried about the others behind me coming to get us. But I wasn’t going to wait for them, either.”
Top selection: Emaraaty Ana
Contenders: Gear Jockey, Glass Slippers, Lieutenant Dan
Must use underneath: A Case of You, Fast Boat
TW
Closer: Extravagant Kid, Fast Boat, Kimari?
(6) A Case of You (8-1)- Stalker. Shortened up to 5F in last two, including a just-up-in-time win over heavy ground in the Prix de l'Abbaye (GI). Appears better with soft-heavy going. Ronan Whelan comes over to ride, but not sure racing a sharp 5F around a turn will suit him best. Grade- B
Trainer Ado McGuiness
“He travelled over really well, and the guys told me he was in great form. The flying didn’t take anything out of him. We’re hoping for a low draw now. The draw is very important over there, because it’s a very tight track – but he won’t win it if I leave him at home. The last (race) was a big day. People were saying he wasn’t fast enough, but the Abbaye is as fast a five furlongs as you’ll ever get."
(5) Arrest Me Red (12-1)- Stalker. Two workmanlike wins in Listed stake at SAR, then a GIII at BEL. 3yo has only two starts this year, probably lacks the seasoning to take on elders in a GI right now. Tab for next year. Grade- C
Trainer Wesley Ward
“He was getting outworked (on the KEE dirt) and for a big, sturdy bugger you'd expect a lot more because he's a sturdy and imposing-type horse. He's like a big tank. I put him with just average horses and they bested him in the mornings. We got him up to Saratoga on the turf and away he went. There's horses-for-courses and horses-for-surfaces and this guy is a grass specialist.”
(8) Caravel (20-1)- Stalker. Declining form in two efforts against older males. Needs firm ground, had no chance over chewed-up course at PRX last out. 5F on firm ground against f&m is her forte. Grade- C
Trainer Graham Motion, before the Turf Monster
"If we want to get her to the Breeders' Cup this is the best spot to get her there with the timing and distance of the race. It's five weeks since she's ran and six weeks to the Breeders' Cup. So timing wise it's perfect. It's a short ship for us being at Fair Hill. And it's five furlongs. I think it's the best race to get her to the Breeders' Cup but obviously she's going to have to run really well to get to that point."
(7) Charmaine's Mia (30-1)- Early speed. Not sure how you shorten up a horse like this back to 5F after a season of routing. Got thumped by Lieutenant Dan down the hillside last time in the Eddie D (GII). Seems like a quality miler against f&m. Grade- D
DRF
Charmaine’s Mia is scheduled to be sold as a racing or broodmare prospect at the November breeding stock sale at Keeneland on Nov. 10.
Trainer Phil D'Amato
“She’ll be out the door the next day." (Don't let it hit you in the ass...)
(2) Emaraaty Ana (5-1)- Stalker. Found his best form in the second half on the season. Just missed in the Nunthorpe (GI) at York, finishing well behind a hot pace (thanks, Golden Pal), then stretched out to 6F in the Haydock Sprint Cup (GI), holding on for the win to just deny Starman on the line. A repeat of either of those efforts would make him tough to beat. Grade- A
Trainer Kevin Ryan, after the Sprint Cup
"He's as good a horse as I've trained. His work in the morning is brilliant. I think he's the right horse for America. He can travel and fast ground won't worry him. I have to talk to Sheikh Mohammed Obaid but I think he's tailor-made for the Breeders' Cup this year."
(12) Extravagant Kid (12-1)- Closer. Trainer Brendan Walsh reaches out to Ryan Moore for the mount. Moore rode him to victory in the $1M Al Quoz Sprint (6F,GI) at Meydan back in March. Ran well at Royal Ascot in the King's Stand (GI) grabbing third, but his subsequent Newmarket race was a disaster, and his comebacker at KEE inspired little confidence. Grade- C
(11) Fast Boat (12-1)- Closer. Two tries at 6F were underwhelming this season, but his 5.5F races at CD & SAR resulted in victories, with a visually impressive, strong finish at the Spa in the Troy (GIII). His outside draw will keep him from getting pinned down, Tyler Gaffalione needs to find a clear path and not get stopped at any point. Grade- B
Trainer Joe Sharp, after the Troy
“The biggest thing that seems to help him is the firm turf course. It was very firm that day. His turn-of-foot is much more significant."
(10) Gear Jockey (5-1)- Stalker. Enjoying a fine 4yo season with four wins in eight starts. Progressed to top form over his last three races following a ten-week break. Fast Boat outfinished him at SAR from a ground-saving post, but he returned the favor at KD when laying much closer to the pace. The best of the US horses, but I think Fast Boat is an overlay if you agree with Gear Jockey's odds, which I do. Grade- B
Trainer Rusty Arnold, on finding the hole card
“We sat down and said, ‘Let’s sprint the horse. He’s just not finishing off, and he shows a lot of talent'. We’ve sprinted him three times on turf, and I think we’ve found his game.”
(1) Glass Slippers (6-1)- Stalker. Defending champion needs firm ground for her best. Abbreviated campaign this season, following last year's road map, if not quite as lucratively. Best effort was a third over good ground at the Curragh in the Flying Five (GI), hitting the front a furlong out before Romantic Proposal knifed through the field to grab the victory, with A Case of You a neck better in second. Maybe not quite as sharp as last year, but has had a month to fine tune. Jockey Tom Eaves must get her to break smoothly from the rail draw or it will be a long day. Grade- B
Trainer Ryan
"It's five furlongs this year and it was five and a half in 2020 but they're quite keen to give it a go and she's in great form. She ran really well in France despite the conditions. She goes with cut in the ground but she doesn't want it that deep, it was pure determination on her part that got her into the position she reached. She leaves everything on the track, blood, sweat, and tears, and she brings her A-game every time."
(3) Golden Pal (7-2)- Early speed. Only three starts this year. Won the Quick Call (GIII) against 3yos at SAR well enough, but was too headstrong and imploded against older in the Nunthorpe (GI) at York. Won the Woodford (GII) at KEE last time, but it wasn't a particularly impressive effort, and he doesn't seem to have improved from last year. Can't believe he's the m/l favorite for this event. Grade- C
Trainer Ward, who clearly disagrees with me
"I really believe that Golden Pal is probably going to end up being the best horse I've ever trained. If he gets away from there in the first jump, depending on how fast they go up front, the race will be his to lose."
(9) Kimari (6-1)- Closer. Can run on both turf and dirt at the highest level, which is rare. Off since April, was being prepped for SAR until a problem arose, got some more time off. 5F may be too short for her style, but she's a fast filly. Rosario aboard is a plus. Too many ?? for me, but may have a saver on her if she looks the part on race day. Grade- C
Trainer Ward
"We went up to Saratoga and she had a really nice breeze on the grass. She came out of the work a little bit off behind and we jogged her for a bit and she didn't come out of it like we'd like to see. We erred on the side of caution and brought her back to Kentucky and gave her time. Our original plan was to go in the Filly & Mare Sprint but, unfortunately, with the time that we lost we just couldn't make the seven furlongs on the dirt."
(4) Lieutenant Dan (6-1)- Early speed. CA-bred. HFTC. I don't know what he was beating in the Green Flash (GIII) here at DMR in August, but that was a 'much-the-best' effort, dueling all the way 'round and then drawing away. Won the Eddie D (GII) down the hillside last out, clearly at the top of his game if that's good enough. Grade- B
Jockey Geovanni Franco, after the Green Flash
“No special instructions for me. I know this horse well. Since he’s come back from his (13-month) layoff, he’s more puffed up. He’s acting like a bully. He’s doing good now. When I made the lead in the straight, I wasn’t worried about the others behind me coming to get us. But I wasn’t going to wait for them, either.”
Top selection: Emaraaty Ana
Contenders: Gear Jockey, Glass Slippers, Lieutenant Dan
Must use underneath: A Case of You, Fast Boat
TW
