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BC Juv Turf Sprint
Oct 30, 2021 10:40:29 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 30, 2021 10:40:29 GMT -5
Early speed: Averly Jane, Go Bears Go, One Timer, Run Curtis Run, Twilight Gleaming.
Closer: Derrynane.
(7) Armor (6-1)- Stalker. Best at 5F. Debut win in April. Mostly progressive through six starts, last was best. In two GI starts against the best 2yo sprinter (Perfect Power) at 6F, beaten 2+ & 3/4. Drop back to 5F is a plus, Ryan Moore in the saddle would also be a plus. Grade- A
Richard Hannon, trainer of Armor (interviewed before the 6F Prix Morny (GI) in August)
“He’ll get six furlongs and we’ll have to have a go at a Group 1 over that trip, but he’s not a big horse. This is his year and, if he makes into a good 3-year-old, then great, but he’s good enough now.”
(8) Averly Jane (5-2)- Early speed. Filly. Dominated first three starts on dirt, two in April, then won turf debut in KEE listed race. Quality of that field was below avg. This race will be a big class test. Probably one of the favorites, could stand against. Grade- C
Jockey Tyler Gafflione, after the KEE race
“It doesn’t really matter (whether she runs on dirt or turf). She’s just a quality filly. She’s got a tremendous amount of speed, and she just keeps going. She’s one of the fastest (out of the gate) I’ve ever been on. She almost throws you in the back seat. She’s a lot of fun.”
(11) Derrynane (12-1)- Closer. NYB filly. Won debut at SAR. Didn't handle yielding ground in stakes debut, improved winning firm ground listed race at WO, visually impressive while not beating much. Expect Rosario to ride but may have too much to do going 5F. Grade- C
Part-owner Richard Leahy
“We were very pleased with her run first out,” Leahy said. “When she ran her second race in the Bolton Landing, it was over a bog, and we knew that she was far better than that. Given the timing and the weather, we went to Woodbine, and she won quite easily.”
(3) Go Bears Go (10-1)- Early speed. Won debut in May, second by a head to Perfect Power at Royal Ascot, won GII at Curragh. Only a length behind Perfect Power in GI at Newmarket going 6F, a neck behind Armor. Up the track behind Native Trail going 7F in Dewhurst (GI), distance was too far. Drop back to 5F a plus. Might be best at 6F, but not impossible to hit the board here. Grade- C
Trainer David Loughnane
“I have more question marks with Go Bears Go. He’s had a long season and we are dropping back to five furlongs. It is going to be a very quick five, but the owners Amo Racing were quite keen to take a crack and we said we’d roll the dice one more time and then put him away.”
(5) Hierarchy (12-1)- Stalker. Progressive in four starts. Won AW debut in August, last was close second in 6F GII at Newbury in September. Ran around one-turn in AW stakes two back. Likely to be overlooked in the wagering. Look to see if Oisin Murphy rides him. Must use for me. Grade- B
Trainer Hugo Palmer
“This horse is very much a sprinter – he’s a very fast horse and he’s improved with every single run this year. He was just touched off by Wings Of War in the Mill Reef, only beaten a head, and was fighting back at the end – having shown a lot of speed. The plan since then has been to drop him back to five furlongs for the first time."
(2) Kaufymaker (20-1)- Cut below this group, not using.
(9) One Timer (10-1)- Early speed. Won AW debut in June, AW stake at WO. Break until shipped to SA, winning small BC 'WAYI' stake on turf. Stayed in CA to prep for BC. Can get away from rider in works and post parade. Adds another log to the 'pace' fire. Grade- C
Jockey E.T. Baird
“He broke well, I had to ask him out of there, but he’s pretty professional outside of the post parade. He just kept running true.”
Quick Suzy- Stalker. Filly. Handles all ground. Second in Irish GIII in third start, then won Queen Mary (GII) at Royal Ascot (8-1) over Twilight Gleaming. Reappeared in August in Prix Morny (GI) but was swamped late by Perfect Power, Armor, and others, fading to ninth place. Owner is Eclipse T'bred Partners, which have pointed her towards this race even before Ascot. Grade- C
Trainer Gavin Cromwell
“She came home fine. The ground rode dead, it was poached ground, and she just didn't quicken on it. She probably didn't see out the six on it either. It wasn't a terrible bad run, she's only beaten just over four lengths."
(12) Run Curtis Run (30-1)- Early speed. NYB. Won two of three dirt starts, then second in GIII Futurity (20-1) on turf debut behind Slipstream. Has much to overcome to hit the board. Grade- D
(10) Time to Party (30-1)- Stalker. Win and a second over course & distance, then an off-the-pace second to One Timer at SA in last. Not particularly fast, but Peter Miller can make sprinters move up. Grade- C
(6) Twilight Gleaming (4-1)- Early speed. Filly. Second in dirt debut in April, jumped up FTT to break maiden impressively. Second to Quick Suzy at Royal Ascot, reappeared in minor 5F French stake in August, winning gamely under Frankie Dettori. Aimed at this since that win. Working steadily,Dettori rides back, Ward's better chance IMO. Grade- B
Jockey Frankie Dettori, after the win at Deauville
"She fought really well and I expect her to be better on faster ground, but she's very honest. The Breeders' Cup is the target and that's why Wesley begged me to come and ride her today. If the ground was quicker I would have made more use of her, but there's a headwind and I was trying to save a bit. The margin wasn't big but she got the job done."
(1) Twilight Jet (12-1)- Stalker. Ten starts since May, winning twice, both at 5F. Beaten by Go Bears Go three times, by Armor once. Probably a bit better on soft ground. Won GIII at Newmarket three weeks ago, has yet to tail off. Doesn't quit, always runs through the wire. Will probably be lost in the wagering, must use somewhere on that angle alone. Grade- C
Trainer Michael O'Callaghan
“After he won the other day I was saying ‘I’ll give this lad a break’ — but he arrived home the next morning and he told me different. He absolutely loves racing, he has a great constitution. He’s just a bit of an animal, he loves his job and he’s a dream to train. Whatever he does at the Breeders’ Cup will be a bonus. If he goes there in good fettle he’ll run a big race."
(4) Vertiginous (30-1)- Stalker. Filly. Finally won first race in listed event at Ayr, and was visually impressive doing it. Has finished close-up in every start, including fifth in the Queen Mary behind Quick Suzy, and fourth to Zain Claudette in GII at York. Trainer Brian Meehan is very good, and if he can coax William Buick into taking the mount, all the better. Probably can't beat all of these but a must use underneath in vertical wagers IMO. Grade- B
Jockey Paul Mulrennan
"Brian said that she was the highest-rated maiden in the country. She's got a lot of natural speed, I hope she'll go on to make into a smart filly – she's not even blowing afterwards."
Top selection- Armor
Contenders- Hierarchy, Twilight Gleaming
Must use underneath- Time to Party, Twilight Jet, Vertiginous
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
Closer: Derrynane.
(7) Armor (6-1)- Stalker. Best at 5F. Debut win in April. Mostly progressive through six starts, last was best. In two GI starts against the best 2yo sprinter (Perfect Power) at 6F, beaten 2+ & 3/4. Drop back to 5F is a plus, Ryan Moore in the saddle would also be a plus. Grade- A
Richard Hannon, trainer of Armor (interviewed before the 6F Prix Morny (GI) in August)
“He’ll get six furlongs and we’ll have to have a go at a Group 1 over that trip, but he’s not a big horse. This is his year and, if he makes into a good 3-year-old, then great, but he’s good enough now.”
(8) Averly Jane (5-2)- Early speed. Filly. Dominated first three starts on dirt, two in April, then won turf debut in KEE listed race. Quality of that field was below avg. This race will be a big class test. Probably one of the favorites, could stand against. Grade- C
Jockey Tyler Gafflione, after the KEE race
“It doesn’t really matter (whether she runs on dirt or turf). She’s just a quality filly. She’s got a tremendous amount of speed, and she just keeps going. She’s one of the fastest (out of the gate) I’ve ever been on. She almost throws you in the back seat. She’s a lot of fun.”
(11) Derrynane (12-1)- Closer. NYB filly. Won debut at SAR. Didn't handle yielding ground in stakes debut, improved winning firm ground listed race at WO, visually impressive while not beating much. Expect Rosario to ride but may have too much to do going 5F. Grade- C
Part-owner Richard Leahy
“We were very pleased with her run first out,” Leahy said. “When she ran her second race in the Bolton Landing, it was over a bog, and we knew that she was far better than that. Given the timing and the weather, we went to Woodbine, and she won quite easily.”
(3) Go Bears Go (10-1)- Early speed. Won debut in May, second by a head to Perfect Power at Royal Ascot, won GII at Curragh. Only a length behind Perfect Power in GI at Newmarket going 6F, a neck behind Armor. Up the track behind Native Trail going 7F in Dewhurst (GI), distance was too far. Drop back to 5F a plus. Might be best at 6F, but not impossible to hit the board here. Grade- C
Trainer David Loughnane
“I have more question marks with Go Bears Go. He’s had a long season and we are dropping back to five furlongs. It is going to be a very quick five, but the owners Amo Racing were quite keen to take a crack and we said we’d roll the dice one more time and then put him away.”
(5) Hierarchy (12-1)- Stalker. Progressive in four starts. Won AW debut in August, last was close second in 6F GII at Newbury in September. Ran around one-turn in AW stakes two back. Likely to be overlooked in the wagering. Look to see if Oisin Murphy rides him. Must use for me. Grade- B
Trainer Hugo Palmer
“This horse is very much a sprinter – he’s a very fast horse and he’s improved with every single run this year. He was just touched off by Wings Of War in the Mill Reef, only beaten a head, and was fighting back at the end – having shown a lot of speed. The plan since then has been to drop him back to five furlongs for the first time."
(2) Kaufymaker (20-1)- Cut below this group, not using.
(9) One Timer (10-1)- Early speed. Won AW debut in June, AW stake at WO. Break until shipped to SA, winning small BC 'WAYI' stake on turf. Stayed in CA to prep for BC. Can get away from rider in works and post parade. Adds another log to the 'pace' fire. Grade- C
Jockey E.T. Baird
“He broke well, I had to ask him out of there, but he’s pretty professional outside of the post parade. He just kept running true.”
Trainer Gavin Cromwell
“She came home fine. The ground rode dead, it was poached ground, and she just didn't quicken on it. She probably didn't see out the six on it either. It wasn't a terrible bad run, she's only beaten just over four lengths."
(12) Run Curtis Run (30-1)- Early speed. NYB. Won two of three dirt starts, then second in GIII Futurity (20-1) on turf debut behind Slipstream. Has much to overcome to hit the board. Grade- D
(10) Time to Party (30-1)- Stalker. Win and a second over course & distance, then an off-the-pace second to One Timer at SA in last. Not particularly fast, but Peter Miller can make sprinters move up. Grade- C
(6) Twilight Gleaming (4-1)- Early speed. Filly. Second in dirt debut in April, jumped up FTT to break maiden impressively. Second to Quick Suzy at Royal Ascot, reappeared in minor 5F French stake in August, winning gamely under Frankie Dettori. Aimed at this since that win. Working steadily,
Jockey Frankie Dettori, after the win at Deauville
"She fought really well and I expect her to be better on faster ground, but she's very honest. The Breeders' Cup is the target and that's why Wesley begged me to come and ride her today. If the ground was quicker I would have made more use of her, but there's a headwind and I was trying to save a bit. The margin wasn't big but she got the job done."
(1) Twilight Jet (12-1)- Stalker. Ten starts since May, winning twice, both at 5F. Beaten by Go Bears Go three times, by Armor once. Probably a bit better on soft ground. Won GIII at Newmarket three weeks ago, has yet to tail off. Doesn't quit, always runs through the wire. Will probably be lost in the wagering, must use somewhere on that angle alone. Grade- C
Trainer Michael O'Callaghan
“After he won the other day I was saying ‘I’ll give this lad a break’ — but he arrived home the next morning and he told me different. He absolutely loves racing, he has a great constitution. He’s just a bit of an animal, he loves his job and he’s a dream to train. Whatever he does at the Breeders’ Cup will be a bonus. If he goes there in good fettle he’ll run a big race."
(4) Vertiginous (30-1)- Stalker. Filly. Finally won first race in listed event at Ayr, and was visually impressive doing it. Has finished close-up in every start, including fifth in the Queen Mary behind Quick Suzy, and fourth to Zain Claudette in GII at York. Trainer Brian Meehan is very good, and if he can coax William Buick into taking the mount, all the better. Probably can't beat all of these but a must use underneath in vertical wagers IMO. Grade- B
Jockey Paul Mulrennan
"Brian said that she was the highest-rated maiden in the country. She's got a lot of natural speed, I hope she'll go on to make into a smart filly – she's not even blowing afterwards."
Top selection- Armor
Contenders- Hierarchy, Twilight Gleaming
Must use underneath- Time to Party, Twilight Jet, Vertiginous
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
