Super Saturday I- UK, IRE, US, CAN 9/18

[tenfurlongs]

Saturday is the Ayr Gold Cup, first established in 1804 and now run at Ayr Racecourse in Scotland at 6F since 1908. The Ayr Silver Cup is also run that day, for horses that were excluded from the final field entered in the Gold Cup.

 

GOING: Good-to-firm (showers possible)

R2 (8:55am EDT)- 1m2f Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)  field of 10.

R3 (9:30am EDT)- 6f Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)  field of 25.

R4 (10:05am EDT)- 6f Firth Of Clyde Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (IRE Incentive Race) (Class 1) (2yo)  field of 15.

R5 (10:40am EDT)- 6f Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)  field of 24.

R6 (11:15am EDT)- 1m Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100)  field of 11.



Newbury in England also has several Group races.

GOING: Good-to-soft (p. cloudy)


R3 (9:15am EDT)- 5f World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)  field of 8.

R4 (9:50am EDT)- 1m3f Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) (Formerly The Arc Trial) (Class 1) (3yo+)  field of 5.

R5 (10:25am EDT)- 1m2f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)  field of 11.

R6 (11:00am EDT)- 6f Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)  field of 10.



Gowran Park in Ireland has a Group III.

GOING: Yielding (showers possible)


R6 (11:30am EDT)- 1m1½f Lanwades Stud Fillies Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+)



Belmont Park offers two future graded stakes.

GOING: Firm (p. cloudy) 


R9 (5:14pm EDT)- 1 3/8 Miles Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S. (Turf) $700,000  field of 7.

R10 (5:45pm EDT)- 1 1/2 Miles Jockey Club Derby Invitational S. $1,000,000  field of 8.



And where is Frankie Dettori riding on Saturday with all this action? At Woodbine, including the mount on Raging Bull for Chad Brown in the Woodbine Mile.

GOING: Firm (showers possible)


R9 (5:35pm EDT)- 1m4f Pattison Canadian International Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)  field of 8.

R10 (6:12pm EDT)- 1m Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+)  field of 10.



Time to get started on the handicapping!




TW

[tenfurlongs]

Ayr R2 (8:55am EDT)- 1m2f Virgin Bet Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Hard to get past the two favorites, which have won a GIII and a Listed race this season, despite carrying the 5lbs and 3lbs penalties today. #1- Euchen Glen (5-2) has run two stinkers in a row, but those were in a GIII and the Ebor Handicap. Record at Ayr is 6/4-1-0, and I expect trainer Jim Goldie to have him at his best. He's on a roll right now. #2- Juan Elcano (even) finished at the rear when tried against Mishriff in the GI Juddmonte, this is a much easier spot. Horse is a bit of a puzzle, but 10F over good ground is his thing.

EX- 1,2/1,2,3,5,7  Result: 3,1,2  Maydanny ($10.80) found his best form stretching out to 10F after running five mile races this year.


Newbury R3 (9:15am EDT)- 5f World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

#3- King's Lynn (7-2) goes for The Queen/Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy. Can run on good ground but would prefer some cut in it. I really like #6- Tis Marvellous (7-2) in this spot, 7yo has been progressive this season, just demolished the field in the Beverly Bullet. Ran second in this last year to Lazuli, looks to go one better today.

EX- 3,6/1,2,3,5,6,7  Result: 1,5,6  Hurricane Ivor ($9.00) stepped up to Group company off his win in the Portland H. last time and ran down Moss Gill and Tis Marvellous on the line, who looked like the ones heading inside the final furlong.


Ayr R3 (9:30am EDT)- 6f Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)

It's difficult to get back into a race such as this, much less win it again, but I feel that #6- Magical Spirit (10-1) is on track to do just that. His 5F prep at Ascot mirrors what they did last season, his numbers are as good as anyone, and he's fresh with only four tries this year. Only concern is the ground, but the going seems to have eased a bit. #21- Blackrod (7-1) is a 3yo Mayson colt for superior sprint trainer Michael Dods. He's improving rapdily and it would be no surprise should he jump up again today. 

EX- 6,21/3,6,11,16,19,21,22  Result: 13,10,21,6  Two form reversals as Staxton (54-1) and Soldier's Minute (58-1) unpredictably fill out the exacta, with my two third and fourth. In the US pools no one had the 13/10 exacta combination, so they had to pay out 13-ALL and ALL-10! 




More to follow...




TW

[tenfurlongs]

Newbury R4 (9:50am EDT)- 1m3f Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) (Formerly The Arc Trial) (Class 1) (3yo+)

#1- Al Aasy (4-5) could be tough to beat in this, gelded since last seen, GI & GII placed, has faced much better than the rest of these. Let's try #4- Foxes Tales (3-1) which has improved very progressively through his six career starts for Andrew Balding/Oisin Murphy. Impeccable pedigree, expensive yearling purchase, with a victory today could be in line for all the big 10F races next year.

EX- 4/1,2  Result: 2,4,3  Solid Stone ($21.20) stayed on strongly to the wire in a paceless race that turned into a two furlong sprint. Al Aasy seemed to have them measured as his jockey waited until everyone else had committed before he started to ride him, but couldn't match strides. Foxes Tales was gallant in defeat, he's one to follow going forward.


Ayr R4 (10:05am EDT)- 6f Firth Of Clyde Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (IRE Incentive Race) (Class 1) (2yo)

Wide open field of 2yo fillies, not willing to take a short price in this. #7- Hellomydarlin (7-1) had one poor effort over heavy ground at Royal Ascot, otherwise hasn't run a bad one, actually beat Zain Claudette when breaking her maiden, and that one has been the yardstick for the freshman fillies this season. May bet this one to win as well >= 5-1. #13- Sadmah (20-1) has two wins in three tries, daughter of Frankel should improve again today.

EX- 7,13/1,3,6,7,8,11,12,13,14  WIN- 7 ?  Result: 11,1,5  Nazanin ($37.00) which had chased Zain Claudette last two, got her head down under Hollie Doyle in a blanket finish at an overlayed price. My two faded badly.




TW

[tenfurlongs]

Ayr R5 (10:40am EDT)- 6f Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) 

EX- 2,3/2,3,4,14,19,21,25  Result: 19,2,14,15  Bielsa ($27.40) ran a remarkable race, running by himself along the stands-side rail while the others were split into two groups. Great Ambassador ($13.60 to place?!) ran what looked like a winning race until the runners came close to the finish, when you could finally see that Bielsa was always ahead of the other groups.




TW

[tenfurlongs]

TW

[tenfurlongs]

2021 Ayr Gold Cup






TW

[tenfurlongs]

BEL R9 (5:14pm EDT)- 1 3/8 Miles Jockey Club Oaks Invitational S. (Turf) $700,000 

I think the two that benefit from the added distance are #2- Higher Truth (3-1) and #7- Harajuku (4-1). There is no obvious source of pace in the race that I can see (#4- Be Up is scratched), but Harajuku likes to sit close up behind the leaders, and #1- Creative Flair (7-2) used to run freely early in her races, until Mike Smith rated her into an impossible spot behind a glacial pace last time. #3- Baby Blythe (9-2) was super impressive running by the field on the far turn at Saratoga to draw away and break her maiden, but I don't think she was beating much. #5- Madone (6-1) appears to be a solid closer at a mile with some pace to run into, and may benefit the least from the stretchout and slow fractions. #6- Shantisara (7-2) was a bit rank early in both her stakes efforts here in the states, she had no chance into a paceless race at MTH, but ran away from the field with huge strides in the Pucker Up (GIII) at AP in her last. Higher Truth has been highly progressive in her five races, will appreciate the stretchout, and can sit close up, which may be the recipe for success today. 

EX- 2,7/1,2,6,7  Result: 6,2,7  No pace whatsoever. Half in 51 3/5, mile in 1:43 1/5, but came home in 33 3/5. Not a misprint. If you weren't on the front end you had no shot. Shantisara ($11.40) was well ridden by Prat, took the length of the stretch but finally inhaled Higher Truth nearing the wire with those big strides. Improving horse, where to next? Harajuku was last under Ryan Moore, did well to make up three lengths to grab third.


BEL R10 (5:45pm EDT)- 1 1/2 Miles Jockey Club Derby Invitational S. $1,000,000 

Four horse race for me, with two standouts. #2- Yibir (2-1) won The great Voltiguer (GII) at York in last, coming from the back of the field behind a dawdling pace and staying on comfortably at the line. Wants good ground and gets it, is proven at the distance, and has faced all the best 3yo colts in GB with favorable results. Just has to show up on the day. #4- Soldier Rising (5-2) is a progressive Frankel gelding which raced in France until a private purchase by Madaket, etc. Career record 5/2-3-0, ran brilliantly in the Saratoga Derby (GI), following winner State of Rest around the turn and sliding down to the rail to just miss while clearly besting the others. Not in Yibir's class, but can be right there should the top one falter. #3- Tokyo Gold (8-1) ran very well when closing for second behind #8- Bolshoi Ballet (5-2) in the Belmont Derby (GI) on his first stateside run. Won the Italian Derby (GII) two back, handles good ground, and should enjoy the stretchout to 12F more than Bolshoi Ballet, which seems to run around there one-paced with just a short burst in the lane, think he's a typical 10F runner, despite Galileo on top.

EX- 2,4/2,3,4,8  Result: 2,4,7  Exacta $18.20  Not sure how Yibir ($7.30) didn't go off the favorite. Or even the second choice. He went from last to first within an eighth of a mile, super impressive. Final half mile in 45 3/5. Bolshoi Ballet has no gears, at least not at 12 furlongs. Terrible favorite. My bad for not betting Yibir to win, for big $$.





TW

[tenfurlongs]

WO R9 (5:35pm EDT)- 1m4f Pattison Canadian International Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) 

No great insights into a big gamble here, it figures to be one of the two European shippers on top. #2- Walton Street (8-5) is lightly-raced for a 7yo, had a fine Dubai Carnival over the winter, then had a break until August GI race in Germany where he was third behind Alpinista, and the runner up has come back to win. Nice prep for today, gets FTL and 12F on good ground. #3- Desert Encounter (3-1) won this race in 2018 & 2019, now 9yo might be just a step slower but can still put in a top effort on the day. Seems to be a runner that thrives in the autumn.

EX- 2,3/1,2,3,6,8  Result: 2,3,5  Exacta $18.60  Walton Street ($3.70) sat confidently off the leader, which set a modest pace and opened up by five down the back side, and when Frankie said go he drew off easily from the others. Desert Encounter showed he can still bring it, coming from 16+ lengths behind after the first half-mile to finish a clear second.


WO R10 (6:12pm EDT)- 1m Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+) 

Going back to Dettori and Tudhope again. #7- Raging Bull (2-1) has excellent GI form, except when he runs at Saratoga. Closer has a unique running style where he middle-moves to get a jump on the other off-the-pace types. Will be interesting to see how Frankie handles him, as he is as shrewd a reader of the PPs as anyone. #10- Space Traveller (12-1) is being dissed by the m/l oddsmaker. He had absolutely no shot in a paceless race at AP last month, did well to get within 3 1/2 lengths of the winner. His numbers are as good or better than anyone in here, with some pace to run at he could upset the applecart.

EX- 7,10/1,2,3,4,5,7,10  Result: 1,10,7  Town Cruise ($19.30) was a 'radioactive' speed horse on paper; go with him and you'll get cooked. So, no one did. Grade I race at a mile, field of ten. First quarter 24.08, two length lead over a no hope longshot, five lengths in front of the rest of the field. Game over. Came to the top of the stretch and still had a two length lead. Space Traveller had a bit of a wide journey, closed well for second at 13-1, huge overlay. Raging Bull a non-threatening third. Wish I had thought more about the lone speed, might have saved with a triple with 1 on top. Triple paid $883.15 for a buck, with my two underneath! Ouch.





TW

[tenfurlongs]

TW