LARRY'S PICKS for Saratoga on Friday, August 3rd!
Aug 1, 2018 13:00:57 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Aug 1, 2018 13:00:57 GMT -5
Party group outing in the Turf Terrace so full card analysis follows. Good luck if you play!
Welcome to beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country. Larry LaTour has analyzed the entire card in the following pages and hopefully the racing Gods will shine upon this fine group of invitees as we mix business with pleasure. Special thanks go out to everyone at the Mraz & Gaud Law Firm for their generous hospitality in extending the invitation to join them in the exclusive Turf Terrace and win or lose, the hope is that everyone has an enjoyable day here at the Spa!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1 FIRST RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $50,000
(3) MALIBU MISCHIEF has the highest distance Tomlinson in this compact field of first time starters. Offered for slightly more than the purchase price she may go well at first asking. (6) WHYISSHESOOLUCKY ships in from Finger Lakes and brings a Western NY based jockey with her. She sports a few solid A.M. breezes but less impressive are her works from the gate. Drawn widest, given an alert getaway she should get a good stalking trip and may be running best in the late stages. (1) HONEY PARADE is by a good first out sire and entices a hot rider in Luis Saez. She has been working in Saratoga since May and she may gain a share if able to overcome a tough post draw.
5 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $50,000
(3) MALIBU MISCHIEF has the highest distance Tomlinson in this compact field of first time starters. Offered for slightly more than the purchase price she may go well at first asking. (6) WHYISSHESOOLUCKY ships in from Finger Lakes and brings a Western NY based jockey with her. She sports a few solid A.M. breezes but less impressive are her works from the gate. Drawn widest, given an alert getaway she should get a good stalking trip and may be running best in the late stages. (1) HONEY PARADE is by a good first out sire and entices a hot rider in Luis Saez. She has been working in Saratoga since May and she may gain a share if able to overcome a tough post draw.
2 SECOND RACE
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $20,000 | Purse: $37,000
(6) MISS KAPINATOR drops from Maiden Special Weights returning from 10 months on the shelf for a trainer with solid layoff stats. The surface breeze on July 27th signals readiness and a top jockey will climb aboard for the first time. One who would not mind some moisture in the track, she should be prominent throughout and is likely the horse to beat. (1) LIP SYNC is a $100,000.00 filly by MACLEAN’S MUSIC debuting for strong connections. Several purposeful works are displayed and the A.M. move on June 26th clearly hints at ability. She should go well beneath a jockey who is having a solid meet. (3) TIMELESS BEAUTY returns from a 7 month hiatus and drops below the purchase price for the first time. She has finished 2nd in her last 3 starts at a mile and needs to find that killer instinct to exit the condition. (2) SATURDAYS VAPOR drops 50% in price while drawing a good post to exhibit her natural speed. She should be in front for as far as she goes!
3 THIRD RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $50,000
(3) SUDDEN SURPRISE is a perfect 4 for 4 racing over the main track at Saratoga and also sports enviable stats at the distance and when there is moisture in the track. This should add up to this gelding by GIANTS SURPRISE as being clearly the one to beat. Badly beaten as the favorite against better last out, look for him to be prominent throughout and prevail at short odds! (2) H MAN has Finger Lakes “bullets” in the holster but was the beaten favorite last out against lesser there. He is another who should appreciate the anticipated wet conditions and he may complete a short exacta. (7) OSTROLENKA was cross-entered in a Turf race albeit as an “MTO” against tougher in the 9th race Wednesday at the Spa but if reserved for this spot, he may gain a minor share.
4 FOURTH RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $12,500 | Purse: $25,000
(7) ZEVEN is a 6 year old mare by LOOKIN AT LUCKY who drops in class following a 2nd place finish to a runaway winner at Monmouth in a race where the 3rd place finisher won next out. While she has never won in 5 attempts over an “off” track, she nonetheless owns the best speed figure in this field trying those conditions. She has some positive course experience finishing 2nd the lone try over the Saratoga main track and she has enough tactical speed to overcome her wide draw. I look for Ricardo Santana to aggressively ride and if she clears into the first turn, she may take no end of catching. (2) MADAME BARBARIAN was well backed last out against several of these when the jockey lost the whip near the 8th pole. She has shown an affinity for wet tracks and also has a decent effort over the Saratoga main track on her resume. She could be right there as they hit the wire. (4) PATRIOTIC ENDEAVOR was cross-entered at a similar level albeit sprinting on August 2nd but if she opts for this spot and the track is wet, she could be the one to beat!
5 FIFTH RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $75,000
(5) MORE MISCHIEF is a pricey daughter of INTO MISCHIEF and is trained by Chad Brown who has been winning at a good clip here. While jockey Jose Ortiz is off to a slow start, the A.M. works suggest the filly is ready to fire right out of the box. Despite being a May foal, I suspect this one may prove to be precocious. (2) SHE’S TROUBLE has indeed encountered trouble in both lifetime starts including as the beaten favorite in a small Stakes race last out. Irad Ortiz sticks and will give her another chance and so should we. She is likely the one to beat. (6) GIVE ME A HUG was a disappointing 5th when unveiled at Belmont last May 3rd and following the freshening, Todd Pletcher will remove the hood. Immediate improvement is likely beneath John Velazquez.
6 SIXTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $77,000
(5) MISS MYSTIQUE drops in class while making her 3rd start back from a January layoff. The daughter of TEUFLESBERG could go well from a stalking posture if this remains on turf but the connections might actually hope this is moved to the main track. A Maiden breaker in her debut, she was thought highly enough to enter a minor dirt stakes here at the Spa in her 2nd lifetime start and she ran on well for 3rd despite trouble. She appears playable on either surface today and that earns her the nod for the top spot. (6) HANNAH’S SMILE makes her 3rd start back following a November break and she ran side by side with my top pick in her penultimate start on May 26th. She has course and distance experience and may be the one to beat if this stays on the grass. (2) LOUISIANA LADY picks up the hustling and hungry Luis Reyes in the saddle and while her 1 for 17 record is a tough sell, she has done her best racing over turf courses that contained some moisture in them. She could be in line for a stalk and kick kind of trip from her inside draw. (7) WANTAGH QUEEN is another stalker who likes to settle for minor awards. She could share on her best!
7 SEVENTH RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(1) ANNE DUPREE goes turf to dirt and attracts the services of Javier Castellano who likely had other options. Drawn inside, she projects as the main speed and Castellano may very well control the race from flagfall to finish. (6) WE ARE FAMILY is a $270,000.00 purchase by INTO MISCHIEF who shows an improved speed figure pattern over her 4 lifetime races. She stretches out to her longest distance yet with solid distance and wet breeding in place. John Velazquez will need to try and save some ground despite the wide draw and if successful, these top 2 could be difficult to separate on the wire! (4) AFFAGATO is a Kentucky bred by MEDAGLIA D’ORO trying a route of ground first time out. Bred well enough for the attempt, she is cross-entered in a MSW Turf event at Delaware Park on August 1st with Edgar Prado named to ride. She could gain a share if saved for this spot.
8 EIGHTH RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $87,000
(6) UNCLE SIGH draws inside the other projected prime speed signed on and I envision Jose Ortiz may try to get him to the rail before the first turn. Proven fresh and over wet surfaces, this hard knocking 7 year old could be the one they will have to collar when the serious running begins! (9) CAN YOU DIGGIT ran on behind my top pick last out and this 4 year old has kept good company throughout his career. 4 for 5 in the trifecta at 9 furlongs, he has hooked repeaters each time he was beaten travelling this route. With clever handling he can overcome the wide post and gain a major share. (4) HOLLAND PARK sports solid distance experience and he just missed last out in the ungraded Federico Tesio Stake at Laurel. This lightly raced son of TAPIT could take another step forward for strong connections! (3) PROVEN RESERVES is another lightly raced colt who will add blinkers after disappointing as the betting favorite last out. He gets off the rail and seems poised for a “stalk and pounce” journey beneath Irad Ortiz. Don’t sell too short!
9 NINTH RACE
National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stake | 1 1/16 Miles (TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds | GRADE II STAKES | Purse: $200,000
(5) RIDE A COMET ships from Canada with a perfect 3 for 3 slate on the turf and the versatile son of CANDY RIDE broke his maiden over sloppy conditions at the Fairgrounds. Given the unsettled weather prospects 2 days out, he seems playable no matter the actual conditions in what amounts to a terrific betting race if the field stays intact. (7) COMBATANT has but the Maiden victory to his credit but he has kept good company while on the Triple Crown trail. His lone turf effort wasn’t bad and the A.M. move over the surface on July 27th jumps off the page. He is an intriguing prospect on dirt or turf at what should be a square price! (6) GIDU ships back across the Atlantic after trying Group I foes at Ascot last out. A solid 4 furlong breeze on July 27th suggests he is no worse from that trip and he has yet to run a bad race stateside. Strong connections will surely attract play but he could be right there when they hit the wire. (2) MARAUD has a solid record over turf and at this distance which includes a course victory last year. He could take all following a ground saving stalking trip. (4) RAGING BULL should see all of the heels early on but could be flying home late if a speed duel develops!
10 TENTH RACE
6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $20,000 | Purse: $40,000
(6) CAN’TWEALLGETALONG brings back painful memories from my participation in the Horse Player World Series this past March in Vegas. I used him in the tournament and that March 9th race at 35-1 was difficult to watch as I realized he would simply run out of race track following a wide bold late move. I thought he would break his Maiden that day ensuring me an HPWS check but it was not to be! He finally did graduate in his last and the connections have placed him at a realistic level in his first try against winners. A snappy “bullet” work on July 24th makes me wonder if he has some confidence finally after greeting the lensman? In a race that is loaded with speed and pace pressers, he could find himself passing tired runners late enroute to an upset. (9) REGALIAN sports solid speed figures over a fast surface and competitive figures against better in the off going. He should gain a share from a stalking posture. (8) ENGINEER’S REPORT has a course victory over sloppy going and might appreciate those conditions more than most. (1) FOUR FREEDOMS is versatile enough to play a part no matter the weather and must be included in any exotics action!
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $20,000 | Purse: $37,000
(6) MISS KAPINATOR drops from Maiden Special Weights returning from 10 months on the shelf for a trainer with solid layoff stats. The surface breeze on July 27th signals readiness and a top jockey will climb aboard for the first time. One who would not mind some moisture in the track, she should be prominent throughout and is likely the horse to beat. (1) LIP SYNC is a $100,000.00 filly by MACLEAN’S MUSIC debuting for strong connections. Several purposeful works are displayed and the A.M. move on June 26th clearly hints at ability. She should go well beneath a jockey who is having a solid meet. (3) TIMELESS BEAUTY returns from a 7 month hiatus and drops below the purchase price for the first time. She has finished 2nd in her last 3 starts at a mile and needs to find that killer instinct to exit the condition. (2) SATURDAYS VAPOR drops 50% in price while drawing a good post to exhibit her natural speed. She should be in front for as far as she goes!
3 THIRD RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $50,000
(3) SUDDEN SURPRISE is a perfect 4 for 4 racing over the main track at Saratoga and also sports enviable stats at the distance and when there is moisture in the track. This should add up to this gelding by GIANTS SURPRISE as being clearly the one to beat. Badly beaten as the favorite against better last out, look for him to be prominent throughout and prevail at short odds! (2) H MAN has Finger Lakes “bullets” in the holster but was the beaten favorite last out against lesser there. He is another who should appreciate the anticipated wet conditions and he may complete a short exacta. (7) OSTROLENKA was cross-entered in a Turf race albeit as an “MTO” against tougher in the 9th race Wednesday at the Spa but if reserved for this spot, he may gain a minor share.
4 FOURTH RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING : $12,500 | Purse: $25,000
(7) ZEVEN is a 6 year old mare by LOOKIN AT LUCKY who drops in class following a 2nd place finish to a runaway winner at Monmouth in a race where the 3rd place finisher won next out. While she has never won in 5 attempts over an “off” track, she nonetheless owns the best speed figure in this field trying those conditions. She has some positive course experience finishing 2nd the lone try over the Saratoga main track and she has enough tactical speed to overcome her wide draw. I look for Ricardo Santana to aggressively ride and if she clears into the first turn, she may take no end of catching. (2) MADAME BARBARIAN was well backed last out against several of these when the jockey lost the whip near the 8th pole. She has shown an affinity for wet tracks and also has a decent effort over the Saratoga main track on her resume. She could be right there as they hit the wire. (4) PATRIOTIC ENDEAVOR was cross-entered at a similar level albeit sprinting on August 2nd but if she opts for this spot and the track is wet, she could be the one to beat!
5 FIFTH RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $75,000
(5) MORE MISCHIEF is a pricey daughter of INTO MISCHIEF and is trained by Chad Brown who has been winning at a good clip here. While jockey Jose Ortiz is off to a slow start, the A.M. works suggest the filly is ready to fire right out of the box. Despite being a May foal, I suspect this one may prove to be precocious. (2) SHE’S TROUBLE has indeed encountered trouble in both lifetime starts including as the beaten favorite in a small Stakes race last out. Irad Ortiz sticks and will give her another chance and so should we. She is likely the one to beat. (6) GIVE ME A HUG was a disappointing 5th when unveiled at Belmont last May 3rd and following the freshening, Todd Pletcher will remove the hood. Immediate improvement is likely beneath John Velazquez.
6 SIXTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $77,000
(5) MISS MYSTIQUE drops in class while making her 3rd start back from a January layoff. The daughter of TEUFLESBERG could go well from a stalking posture if this remains on turf but the connections might actually hope this is moved to the main track. A Maiden breaker in her debut, she was thought highly enough to enter a minor dirt stakes here at the Spa in her 2nd lifetime start and she ran on well for 3rd despite trouble. She appears playable on either surface today and that earns her the nod for the top spot. (6) HANNAH’S SMILE makes her 3rd start back following a November break and she ran side by side with my top pick in her penultimate start on May 26th. She has course and distance experience and may be the one to beat if this stays on the grass. (2) LOUISIANA LADY picks up the hustling and hungry Luis Reyes in the saddle and while her 1 for 17 record is a tough sell, she has done her best racing over turf courses that contained some moisture in them. She could be in line for a stalk and kick kind of trip from her inside draw. (7) WANTAGH QUEEN is another stalker who likes to settle for minor awards. She could share on her best!
7 SEVENTH RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000
(1) ANNE DUPREE goes turf to dirt and attracts the services of Javier Castellano who likely had other options. Drawn inside, she projects as the main speed and Castellano may very well control the race from flagfall to finish. (6) WE ARE FAMILY is a $270,000.00 purchase by INTO MISCHIEF who shows an improved speed figure pattern over her 4 lifetime races. She stretches out to her longest distance yet with solid distance and wet breeding in place. John Velazquez will need to try and save some ground despite the wide draw and if successful, these top 2 could be difficult to separate on the wire! (4) AFFAGATO is a Kentucky bred by MEDAGLIA D’ORO trying a route of ground first time out. Bred well enough for the attempt, she is cross-entered in a MSW Turf event at Delaware Park on August 1st with Edgar Prado named to ride. She could gain a share if saved for this spot.
8 EIGHTH RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $87,000
(6) UNCLE SIGH draws inside the other projected prime speed signed on and I envision Jose Ortiz may try to get him to the rail before the first turn. Proven fresh and over wet surfaces, this hard knocking 7 year old could be the one they will have to collar when the serious running begins! (9) CAN YOU DIGGIT ran on behind my top pick last out and this 4 year old has kept good company throughout his career. 4 for 5 in the trifecta at 9 furlongs, he has hooked repeaters each time he was beaten travelling this route. With clever handling he can overcome the wide post and gain a major share. (4) HOLLAND PARK sports solid distance experience and he just missed last out in the ungraded Federico Tesio Stake at Laurel. This lightly raced son of TAPIT could take another step forward for strong connections! (3) PROVEN RESERVES is another lightly raced colt who will add blinkers after disappointing as the betting favorite last out. He gets off the rail and seems poised for a “stalk and pounce” journey beneath Irad Ortiz. Don’t sell too short!
9 NINTH RACE
National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stake | 1 1/16 Miles (TURF) | Open | 3 Year Olds | GRADE II STAKES | Purse: $200,000
(5) RIDE A COMET ships from Canada with a perfect 3 for 3 slate on the turf and the versatile son of CANDY RIDE broke his maiden over sloppy conditions at the Fairgrounds. Given the unsettled weather prospects 2 days out, he seems playable no matter the actual conditions in what amounts to a terrific betting race if the field stays intact. (7) COMBATANT has but the Maiden victory to his credit but he has kept good company while on the Triple Crown trail. His lone turf effort wasn’t bad and the A.M. move over the surface on July 27th jumps off the page. He is an intriguing prospect on dirt or turf at what should be a square price! (6) GIDU ships back across the Atlantic after trying Group I foes at Ascot last out. A solid 4 furlong breeze on July 27th suggests he is no worse from that trip and he has yet to run a bad race stateside. Strong connections will surely attract play but he could be right there when they hit the wire. (2) MARAUD has a solid record over turf and at this distance which includes a course victory last year. He could take all following a ground saving stalking trip. (4) RAGING BULL should see all of the heels early on but could be flying home late if a speed duel develops!
10 TENTH RACE
6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $20,000 | Purse: $40,000
(6) CAN’TWEALLGETALONG brings back painful memories from my participation in the Horse Player World Series this past March in Vegas. I used him in the tournament and that March 9th race at 35-1 was difficult to watch as I realized he would simply run out of race track following a wide bold late move. I thought he would break his Maiden that day ensuring me an HPWS check but it was not to be! He finally did graduate in his last and the connections have placed him at a realistic level in his first try against winners. A snappy “bullet” work on July 24th makes me wonder if he has some confidence finally after greeting the lensman? In a race that is loaded with speed and pace pressers, he could find himself passing tired runners late enroute to an upset. (9) REGALIAN sports solid speed figures over a fast surface and competitive figures against better in the off going. He should gain a share from a stalking posture. (8) ENGINEER’S REPORT has a course victory over sloppy going and might appreciate those conditions more than most. (1) FOUR FREEDOMS is versatile enough to play a part no matter the weather and must be included in any exotics action!
LL
