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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 6, 2021 9:35:52 GMT -5
Summer racing really heats up this week in England. The prime track is Newmarket, with the races being run on the July Course. The going figures to be Good, or Good-to-Firm. Thursday: Newmarket offers the July Stakes (GII 2yo 6F); a short field of five for the Tattersalls Stakes (GII 3up 12F); two stakes for 3yo- Bahrain Trophy Stakes (GIII 3yo 13F) and Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed 3yo 8F); a twenty-runner Heritage Handicap (3yo 6F); and the John Deere Handicap (3up 8F). Friday: Newmarket features the Falmouth Stakes (GI 3up f&m 8F) which quite possibly has the best field of fillies and mares assembled this season; the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (GII 2yof 6F); twenty 3 year olds in a Heritage Handicap (3yo 10F); twenty older stayers in a Heritage Handicap (4up 14F); and two twenty-runner sprint handicaps at 7F (3up) and 5F (3up). This is the best betting card I have seen all year. If you have any interest in playing UK racing, you should play on Friday!Not to be left out, Ascot has a seven-race card of full-field handicaps at a variety of distances, and more importantly over Soft-Heavy going, so horses that want deeper ground will head there. Saturday: The Darley July Cup (GI 3up 6F) is the showpiece event of the Newmarket July Festival. Terrific group of sprinters assembled, many of whom just ran at Royal Ascot, and a few new shooters. The Superlative Stakes (GII 2yo 7F); the Bunbury Cup (3up 7F) twenty-runner Heritage Handicap; the Mile Handicap (3yo 8F); the Fillies' Handicap (3yo f 7F); and a twenty-runner handicap (3up 12F) round out the card. Ascot features the Summer Mile (GII 4up 8F) and a top-level field if most of them show up; solid undercard of full-field handicaps. York Racecourse gets into the act with a GIII, a Listed event, and five full-field handicaps over Soft ground. Chester offers the City Plate Stakes (Listed 3up 7F) and a sturdy supporting card. Many betting opportunities over the three days, good luck if you play! TW |
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Post by Badactor on Jul 6, 2021 9:55:59 GMT -5
Tom, when did you first become interested in European racing? I had only ever followed North American thoroughbred racing until being introduced to "foreign" horse via the world wide web.
It was the Makybe Diva Melbourne Cups that first captured my attention. Since then, and mostly because of the coverage you guys provide on the forum, it's been a pleasure learning about & watching this beautiful sport around the world.
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 6, 2021 11:27:36 GMT -5
should be a nice morning opportunity to get us through until Toga opens.......
thanx for the heads up!
Is Charles Appleby on fire, or what?
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 6, 2021 13:32:38 GMT -5
Tom, when did you first become interested in European racing? I had only ever followed North American thoroughbred racing until being introduced to "foreign" horse via the world wide web.
It was the Makybe Diva Melbourne Cups that first captured my attention. Since then, and mostly because of the coverage you guys provide on the forum, it's been a pleasure learning about & watching this beautiful sport around the world.
My initial exposure was probably like a lot of people, the occasional TV broadcast of the Arc or Epsom Derby. I was more interested in Saratoga, the Triple Crown races, and later Gulfstream Park and Tampa during the winter. It became clear to me, especially financially  , that I was better at picking turf races than dirt. By far (when I used to keep detailed records, my dirt %s were nasty). So once the Breeders' Cup came around, I focused on the turf races. I saw that even though they sent very few horses over, the Europeans were often dominant on grass. So I started watching "prep" races for the invaders (this was very naive, thinking that they were pointing to these events, when in most cases they had already tackled their seasonal goals and were taking a sporting chance with the Americans.) I saw that racing was conducted in a much less regimented, much more diverse setting, with each course layout different from every other one, odd-looking riding styles, and huge fields of horses, sometimes thirty, sometimes running in a straight line, never over level ground. It was fascinating, but seemed beyond my ability to handicap it intelligently with few resources and data available. The internet, as with everything else, put reams of information at our fingertips. I started watching Royal Ascot five or six years ago, and thought it was fantastic, the best presentation of horse racing that I'd seen. Somewhere around that time, actually a few years before, I started to casually look at the races that were taking place during July and August, when Saratoga was running. The NYRA program would have some limited PPs, if I recall correctly, for the English and Irish tracks running that morning. I've told this story previously, but it's still true. I like UK-IRE racing because of Doctor Disaster. We'd all show up at the Spa when the gates opened, put our chairs and stuff down in the backyard, and drink coffee and talk about whatever until it was time to get serious and go racing. Sometimes, I'd look over and see Doc's empty chair, and notice he had walked over to a bank of TVs under a red and white awning. "Hey Doc, what're ya doin?" He'd reply with one word answers, while staring intently at the screen. "Goodwood." "Curragh." Eventually I walked over too, and watched the races with him. He'd hit some races, sometimes being flush with cash before noon. Good times. I've become less enamored with US racing in the last five years. I still stink at handicapping dirt races, and the results of all races have made less and less sense to me. They seem unpredictable, or too predictable. Not fun anymore. I've migrated to a new routine, and I've enjoyed racing again, and am actually making money (fairly small profits). I haven't made a Twinspires deposit since April. Dubai (Meydan) World Cup Carnival in January-March, along with UK all-weather racing (surprisingly formful) during the same time frame. The flat season in Europe begins at the end of March, with highpoints in every month through October. Still play Saratoga (duh) in July-August. November and December is the run-up to the holiday season, so time to take a breather, but I still check the entries here and there. Never been happier to be a horseplayer. Thanks for asking! TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 6, 2021 13:45:43 GMT -5
They have been racing at Newmarket for 355 years.
Yep.
I know this is an hour-long video, but at least watch the beginning to get a taste. This right here is what I like about UK racing.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 8, 2021 7:01:40 GMT -5
Newmarket 8:50- 1m5f (July) Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) Pleasant Man is a non-runner. Only five go, not much of a betting race. 6- Yibir (5-2) needs good ground or better, and gets it. Finished third in the Classic Trial at Sandown in April behind Alenquer and Adayar, and just ahead of Lone Eagle. Want to see a key race? Alenquer won the King Edward VII (GII) at Royal Ascot; Adayar was the Epsom Derby (GI) hero; Lone Eagle led until the last few jumps when run down by Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby (GI). Yibir has yet to prove himself at the Group level but the going was against him in the last two, taken to make amends today. EX- 6/1,5 Newmarket 9:25- 6f (July) July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo)Six of the eleven runners competed at Royal Ascot. 7- Lusail (10-1) has been brought along steadily by trainer Richard Hannon, with two wins in three outings. Makes Group-level debut, but has solid numbers and may get lost in the wagering. 8- Project Dante (3-1) was a neck third in the Norfolk S. (GII), and second-place Go Bears Go came back to take the Railway S. (GII) at the Curragh over the highly regarded Castle Star. May like six furlongs better than first two runs. EX- 7,8/1,3,4,7,8 WIN- 7 Newmarket 10:00- 6f (July) Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) Just Frank, Temple Bruer are non-runners. Field of eighteen 3yos. Wide open affair, so I'm spreading deep. 1- Jumby (8-1) is the highweight. Pitched in too high over ground he couldn't handle in the Commonwealth Cup (GI), up the track behind Campanelle and Dragon Symbol. Previous close-up thirds to Creative Force and the aforementioned Yibir point him out. 6- Boomshalaa (9-2) was second to Significantly at Royal Ascot going 5F, has a 6F win over good ground. 10- Jadwal (12-1) is only 6/1-1-0 on turf, but the two ITM finishes were both here at Newmarket. Trainer and jockey have been quiet lately, maybe a breakout today? EX- 1,6,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10,12 Newmarket 10:35- 1m4f (July) Princess Of Wales's Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)Five horse field, underwhelming betting event. 2- Al Aasy (4-5) takes on 1- Sir Ron Priestly (9-2) over 12F. The latter won the Jockey Club S. (GII) over course, distance and ground in May, defeating Pyledriver; the former just missed to Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup (GI) at Epsom after two open-length GIII-wins. Won the Bahrain Trophy (GIII) here last season. I don't like 4- Highest Ground (3-1) son of Frankel has underachieved to this point. EX- 2/1 if it's paying >= $8 Newmarket 11:10- 1m (July) Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) Derab is a non-runner. Only five go to post. 4- Maximal (9-5) was handled by One Ruler twice as a 2yo, but he has improved this season while 6- One Ruler (8-1) has foundered in two starts beyond a mile. Perhaps the turnback to 8F will turn that franchise around. 1- Baaeed (5-2) is undefeated in two starts, gets tested for class today but may well be this good. EX- 4,6/1,4,6 Newmarket 11:45- 1m (July) John Deere Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) Repertoire is a non-runner. Field of fifteen going a mile on the July course. 4- Path of Thunder (6-1) is a consistent sort, expensive son of Night Of Thunder has a win and a third here. Godolphin/Appleby/Doyle. I really like 5- Epic Endeavour (8-1) in this. He came on strongly at the end of his 3yo campaign with three victories, looks to be shaping into form once again. Betting that he runs a big race today. EX- 4,5/1,4,5,12,16 WIN- 5 Good luck if you play! TW |
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Post by arsignman on Jul 8, 2021 9:32:15 GMT -5
NEWMARKET
Race 5 #2 Al Aasy #1 Sir Ron Priestly #4 Highest Ground
Race 6 #6 One Ruler #1 Baaeed #4 Maximal
Race 7 #4 Path of Thunder #16 Legendary Day #10 Tenbury Wells
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 8, 2021 10:32:20 GMT -5
Baaeed didn't beat much of a field, but the way he did it stamps him as a serious horse. Jockey just cruised him up to the lead under a handride while the others were asking for everything, got two left-handed taps with the whip just so he knows what that feels like (he was running straight as a string), and drew off by four lengths over Maximal with One Ruler third. Very impressive. Unless they want to stretch him out in distance going forward, the logical spot for his next start would be the Sussex Stakes (GI) at Goodwood where Palace Pier and Poetic Flare may be waiting.
TW
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Post by arsignman on Jul 8, 2021 10:45:24 GMT -5
They have been racing at Newmarket for 355 years. Yep. I know this is an hour-long video, but at least watch the beginning to get a taste. This right here is what I like about UK racing. Thanks for sharing this video, I really enjoyed it and learned very much !!!!!!!! TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 8, 2021 10:56:21 GMT -5
NEWMARKET Race 5 #2 Al Aasy #1 Sir Ron Priestly #4 Highest Ground Race 6 #6 One Ruler #1 Baaeed #4 Maximal Race 7 #4 Path of Thunder #16 Legendary Day #10 Tenbury Wells If you boxed them all, you had three exactas and two triples. Nice handicapping! TW |
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Post by arsignman on Jul 8, 2021 10:59:15 GMT -5
NEWMARKET Race 5 #2 Al Aasy #1 Sir Ron Priestly #4 Highest Ground Race 6 #6 One Ruler #1 Baaeed #4 Maximal Race 7 #4 Path of Thunder #16 Legendary Day #10 Tenbury Wells If you boxed them all, you had three exactas and two triples. Nice handicapping! Thanks, Yes i had the exactas and tri's. Great start for Saratoga !!!! TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 8, 2021 12:33:52 GMT -5
Newmarket 8:50- 1m5f (July) Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) Pleasant Man is a non-runner. Only five go, not much of a betting race. 6- Yibir (5-2) needs good ground or better, and gets it. Finished third in the Classic Trial at Sandown in April behind Alenquer and Adayar, and just ahead of Lone Eagle. Want to see a key race? Alenquer won the King Edward VII (GII) at Royal Ascot; Adayar was the Epsom Derby (GI) hero; Lone Eagle led until the last few jumps when run down by Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby (GI). Yibir has yet to prove himself at the Group level but the going was against him in the last two, taken to make amends today. EX- 6/1,5 Result: 6,3,1 Yibir ($4.80) got his ground today, and once again franked the form of the Classic Trial, winning easily.Newmarket 9:25- 6f (July) July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo)Six of the eleven runners competed at Royal Ascot. 7- Lusail (10-1) has been brought along steadily by trainer Richard Hannon, with two wins in three outings. Makes Group-level debut, but has solid numbers and may get lost in the wagering. 8- Project Dante (3-1) was a neck third in the Norfolk S. (GII), and second-place Go Bears Go came back to take the Railway S. (GII) at the Curragh over the highly regarded Castle Star. May like six furlongs better than first two runs. EX- 7,8/1,3,4,7,8 WIN- 7 Result: 7,2,9 Win- $107.00 Lusail ($21.40) was prominent early but well within himself, made the lead inside the two furlong mark and held on for a head victory. None of the top three finishers raced at Royal Ascot, FWIW.Newmarket 10:00- 6f (July) Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) Just Frank, Temple Bruer are non-runners. Field of eighteen 3yos. Wide open affair, so I'm spreading deep. 1- Jumby (8-1) is the highweight. Pitched in too high over ground he couldn't handle in the Commonwealth Cup (GI), up the track behind Campanelle and Dragon Symbol. Previous close-up thirds to Creative Force and the aforementioned Yibir point him out. 6- Boomshalaa (9-2) was second to Significantly at Royal Ascot going 5F, has a 6F win over good ground. 10- Jadwal (12-1) is only 6/1-1-0 on turf, but the two ITM finishes were both here at Newmarket. Trainer and jockey have been quiet lately, maybe a breakout today? EX- 1,6,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10,12 Result: 12,4,9 Top three finishers all raced in the small group that went along the far side of the course. My three all ran poorly. Newmarket 10:35- 1m4f (July) Princess Of Wales's Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)Five horse field, underwhelming betting event. 2- Al Aasy (4-5) takes on 1- Sir Ron Priestly (9-2) over 12F. The latter won the Jockey Club S. (GII) over course, distance and ground in May, defeating Pyledriver; the former just missed to Pyledriver in the Coronation Cup (GI) at Epsom after two open-length GIII-wins. Won the Bahrain Trophy (GIII) here last season. I don't like 4- Highest Ground (3-1) son of Frankel has underachieved to this point. EX- 2/1 if it's paying >= $8 Result: 1,2,5 Ron Priestly ($8.40) went right to the front and Al Aasy could never get past him. Highest Ground was last.
Newmarket 11:10- 1m (July) Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) Derab is a non-runner. Only five go to post. 4- Maximal (9-5) was handled by One Ruler twice as a 2yo, but he has improved this season while 6- One Ruler (8-1) has foundered in two starts beyond a mile. Perhaps the turnback to 8F will turn that franchise around. 1- Baaeed (5-2) is undefeated in two starts, gets tested for class today but may well be this good. EX- 4,6/1,4,6 Result: 1,4,6 Baaeed ($3.00) took all the money and looked like something special, dispatching the small field with absolute ease. One to follow for certain.Newmarket 11:45- 1m (July) John Deere Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95) Repertoire is a non-runner. Field of fifteen going a mile on the July course. 4- Path of Thunder (6-1) is a consistent sort, expensive son of Night Of Thunder has a win and a third here. Godolphin/Appleby/Doyle. I really like 5- Epic Endeavour (8-1) in this. He came on strongly at the end of his 3yo campaign with three victories, looks to be shaping into form once again. Betting that he runs a big race today. EX- 4,5/1,4,5,12,16 WIN- 5 Result: 4,10,16 Path of Thunder ($6.80) sat off the pace, easily moved to the front in the final furlong. Epic Endeavour went to the lead under a keen hold, didn't seem comfortable in that role and tired late to finish mid-pack. Good luck if you play! TW |
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, that I was better at picking turf races than dirt. By far (when I used to keep detailed records, my dirt %s were nasty). So once the Breeders' Cup came around, I focused on the turf races. I saw that even though they sent very few horses over, the Europeans were often dominant on grass. So I started watching "prep" races for the invaders (this was very naive, thinking that they were pointing to these events, when in most cases they had already tackled their seasonal goals and were taking a sporting chance with the Americans.) I saw that racing was conducted in a much less regimented, much more diverse setting, with each course layout different from every other one, odd-looking riding styles, and huge fields of horses, sometimes thirty, sometimes running in a straight line, never over level ground. It was fascinating, but seemed beyond my ability to handicap it intelligently with few resources and data available.