Belmont Stakes card- 6/5

[tenfurlongs]

R1: MSW 2yo- Keepcalmcarryon draws the fence, probably wants farther. Pass. Hagler was second by five lengths in a three-horse race. Not marvelous. Wit was most expensive of Practical Joke's first crop sold at auction, has every right to win but $ will be too low. Magical Knight goes here for Juan C. Vasquez who has a checkered past, now a 9% trainer. Owner wants a runner on Belmont Stakes Day? Too Much Action ships in from DEL for O'Dwyer, gets Saez to ride. Jan. foal wasn't very expensive at KEESEP, but I'll pay to see if he can run a bit. Choice, especially at 15-1 m/l.

R2: MSW 7F T 3up- Playing only if it stays on the grass. Migrate looks like one to follow going forward, just watching today. Taking a shot with King James, 2TT, switch to Jose. Jerkens should have him figured out by now.

R3: Woody GI- Dream Shake. That is all.

R4: Brooklyn in da house GII- Tizamagician no Lasix, yes Mandella. Hoping for better than m/l price.

R5: Acorn GI- Dayoutoftheoffice for me, 4-1 m/l. Brad and Chad will take the money, TiMOthy takes the trophy. One turn mile hits the bullseye for her.

R6: Jaipur GI- Puzzler. Boxing three in here, Gregorian Chant, Bound for Nowhere and Got Stormy. The latter really seemed to perk up when turned back to sprints by Casse last year. Same goes for D'Amato's charge.

R7: Phipps GI- Bonny South may be the best older filly you haven't heard of, and she'll be a longer price than four of these. Upset special!

R8: Just A Game GI- Not the strongest renewal of this race. Taking a shot with Regal Glory, wondering why Mike Smith (5% turf?!) is riding Althiqa? Regal Glory has been carefully handled by Chad through twelve starts, pointing for first GI today. 

R9: Met Mile GI- Maybe Silver State can sit back and pick up the pieces late. I think he'd make a good sire with his pedigree, needs some GI black type on the CV. Give him the heater, Ricky!

R10: Manhattan GI- 5:38pm, perfect time for my first Manhattan of the evening. Will try Gufo over Domestic Spending and Colonel Liam in exactas, maybe get twenty bucks. Clement/Rosario are a tough tag team.

R11: Belmont Stakes GI- I'm all aboard Known Agenda. Pletcher usually sends his best stayer over to TAM during the winter for a run or two. They picked the Florida Derby as goal #1, then used the Derby as a prep for goal #2, especially after they drew the one hole in Kentucky. Vinny Viola (St. Elias Stable) wants to win this race more than any other, and to do it with a homebred would be the icing on the cake.  www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/vincent-viola-the-belmont-is-absolutely-the-race-that-i-covet-the-most/

After Epsom in the morning, and Belmont the rest of the day, I'll be calling time, and let you all take down the last two. Good luck with your plays.

For Jeff (QuickCall), who wants some Belmont chatter!




TW

[DoctorDisaster]

Jun 3, 2021 15:31:03 GMT -5 tenfurlongs said:

R11: Belmont Stakes GI- I'm all aboard Known Agenda. Pletcher usually sends his best stayer over to TAM during the winter for a run or two. They picked the Florida Derby as goal #1, then used the Derby as a prep for goal #2, especially after they drew the one hole in Kentucky. Vinny Viola (St. Elias Stable) wants to win this race more than any other, and to do it with a homebred would be the icing on the cake.  www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/vincent-viola-the-belmont-is-absolutely-the-race-that-i-covet-the-most/

After Epsom in the morning, and Belmont the rest of the day, I'll be calling time, and let you all take down the last two. Good luck with your plays.

For Jeff (QuickCall), who wants some Belmont chatter!




TW

Ditto.My Derby horse lost all chance at start.Last time I bet the 1 horse in the Derby it was Looking At Lucky.LAL didn't run in the Belmont but won his next out Preekness.As I'm writing this Irad just went down at BP.Hope he's ok.The horse looks fine just spooked...maidens.

[DoctorDisaster]

Irad walked off the track.
Wrong...... going to the hospital,Jose said he's a little banged up but nothing serious.

[spiderjohn]

what a race card!
The Irad factor? Scary fall
Too tough for me to play many multi-race wagers

race 1
One of the Pletcher runners, #2 or #4 will probably win----

race 2
One of the Chads here---#1 or #6--probably #6 PIPELINE with the turf sprint pedigree and an in-tough dirt debut. The Klaravich pedigree is strong also.

race 3
I don't see how the "expected" pace can last, so #5 TULANE TRYST is the improving best closer imo. If not, probably #3 JACKIES WARRIOR with Santana.

race 4
#9 LONE ROCK may be decently priced here....Atras comes back with #5 MUSICAL HEART and #6 MORETTI with her last season form

race 5
#6 SEARCH RESULTS is obvious, returning 5 weeks after a huge Oaks effort. #2 OBLIGATORY seems logical to close past the others again. #1 TRAVEL COLUMN may run underneath?

race 6
#3 COMPLETED PASS can sneak through this shaky field.... #4 FAST BOAT should be finishing well. #5 GREYES CREEK may be the bomb that lights this gimmick.

race 7
#1 SWISS SKYDIVER gets another chance after her last race mess. #2 VALLIANCE may come back running at a price.
#1 win

race 8
Why is Charles Appleby running females in the same race here? Pick one....#8 ALTHIQA with Smith.
#12 NEW YORK GIRL may be around for a part at a price.

race 9
#2 DR POST finished 2nd in last year's Belmont and came back with a sharp win on the surface.
#1 MISCHIEVIOUS ALEX is obviously in top form.

race 10
#9 GUFO should run past everyone late. A ChadBrown will either win or run 2nd, probably #4 DOMESTIC SPENDING. #2 BYE BYE MELVIN is my ticket-maker in this race.

race 11
Pletcher day continues with #6 KNOWN AGENDA coming back sharp. #2 QUALITY is good enough to be a part.

[1hooper]

Swiss Skydiver and Valiance both out of the Phipps with fevers.

[eye123]

4:28 of this video...info on the "upset special"

[DoctorDisaster]

Just when you have the answers.......they change the questions. www.drf.com/news/ortiz-doing-well-following-ugly-looking-spill-will-miss-two-weeks

[gam]

Have any replacements been announced yet?

[DoctorDisaster]

Jose got some of the good ones, TAP will make a game time call for KA,

[eye123]

Belmont Stakes..thinking straight EX 7/2,6 Rock Your World will set the pace,EQ right behind a length or two with KA making a move late. I think RYW holds on, and either EQ or KA complete the exacta. Like the work I saw from RYW on the 28th, looks prime for top effort, and with no other speed to pressure out of the gate should be able to set an easy pace. All three should handle the mile and a half here. GL

[forego]

R3: #3 Jackie's Warrior the speed of the speed should be tough. Like #1 Nova Rags on the cut back should get a nice trip inside just off.
R4: My top pick #7 Ajaaweed will have plenty of pace to run at in here unlike last out. Sadler puts the blinkers on #3 Campaign & several nice works, some moisture in the track won't hurt either, has won twice and placed in six attempts at the distance and then the #9 Lone Rock. Two wins and a 2nd from three tries at the distance, three wins on off tracks, should get first jump on the 3 and 7. Exacta box 3,7,9.

R5: #4 Dayoutoftheoffice and #6 Search Results exacta and win on the 4.

R6: Yielding or good/soft at best I expect for the turf tomorrow. Tough race with not a lot of obvious speed signed up. #6 Bound for Nowhere should have the lead if he wants it. Plenty of horses that will be coming late for him. Exacta box with the #2 Casa Creed, #4 Fast Boat and then play those three over the #12 Somebeyay.

R7: This was one helluva great race prior to the scratches. Swiss was going to be my top pick with #7 Bonny South. Now, it's a 3,5,7 exacta box and maybe win money on the 7.

R8: #4 Regal Glory and #11 Blowout with #10 Tamahere, exacta box those three and win on the 4.

R9: #6 Knicks Go wires the field and if not...I'd have to hit the All button.

R10: #8 Tribhuvan wire to wire and will use the #2 Bye Bye Melvin, #4 Domestic Spending , #9 Gufo and #10 Colonel Liam

R11: #7 Rock Your World on top over #2 Essential Quality.

Good luck all!

[mysaladdays]

I'm wagering in the Epsom race instead of The Belmont, but since I already did some work on it, I would have played it like this:

combo of these 4 for exactas and trifectas: Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Overtook, Rock Your World

Add France Go de Ina for super high five or superfectas for value.


Race 12:  Runaway Rumour  w/p/s

[eye123]

Jun 5, 2021 1:55:58 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I'm wagering in the Epsom race instead of The Belmont, but since I already did some work on it, I would have played it like this:

combo of these 4 for exactas and trifectas: Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Overtook, Rock Your World

Add France Go de Ina for super high five or superfectas for value.


Race 12:  Runaway Rumour  w/p/s

Race 12: Runaway Rumour w/p/s                   

[Badactor]

[Badactor]

[spiderjohn]

Finally a strong 2-day run my way.
Pletcher's WIT was serious in the 1st.
The Appleby runners dominated, producing a sweet tri
That was one very GUFO trip on that runner
With Irad off, I switched to EQ, though that was a serious odds drop at the end....

Leaving enough $$ in th account to start off Royal Ascot

Break time!

[1hooper]

Best opinions on the day were Casa Creed in Jaipur and Godolphin pair it Just A Game. Almost got Tribhuvan home and totally whiffed playing Hot Rod Charlie to be out of the tri. Slight profit,not memorable.