The Belmont

[1hooper]

Do Shadwell/Pletcher run the undefeated Ky Oaks winner Malathaat?
Pletcher has Known Agenda. Add in Rombauer,Essential Quality and Rock Your World and it comes up interesting.

[Badactor]

Scarred (3-Year-Old Colt)

Your comments for this horse:

KD 2021 future pool 1

Date: May 16, 2021
Track: LONE STAR PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.01:00 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt

Rank: 6/20

Hey Hooper...

you won't have to worry about this guy!

[1hooper]

Nyra.com

Rebel's Romance, a sophomore son of Dubawi, is an Irish homebred out of the Street Cry mare Minidress. A winner of 4-of-5 starts, Rebel's Romance made the grade last out with a 5 1/2-length romp in the 1 3/16-mile UAE Derby on March 27 at Meydan.

Chretien said the sizable Rebel's Romance is taking well to the expansive Belmont main track.

"I think he's moving well over it. The rider is very happy with him," said Chretien. "He's a big boy. When he won the [UAE] Derby, he needed time to get into his rhythm. He's a big machine. The big track will suit him. He needs to be able to use his stride. The longer distance will be good for him."


#10,Godolphin blue jacket white cap.

[1hooper]

Always one of the best days of the year. 8 Grade 1's and a Grade 2.

Saturday, Jun 05 Acorn I $500,000.00 F3YO Dirt 1 Mile
Saturday, Jun 05 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets I $1,500,000.00 3YO Dirt 1 1/2
Saturday, Jun 05 Brooklyn II $400,000.00 4&UP Dirt 1 1/2
Saturday, Jun 05 Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap (BC) I $1,000,000.00 3&UP Dirt 1 Mile
Saturday, Jun 05 Jackpocket Jaipur (BC) I $400,000.00 3&UP Turf 6 Furlongs
Saturday, Jun 05 Longines Just a Game I $500,000.00 F&M 4&UP Turf 1 Mile
Saturday, Jun 05 Ogden Phipps (BC) I $500,000.00 F&M 4&UP Dirt 1 1/16
Saturday, Jun 05 Resorts World Casino Manhattan I $750,000.00 4&UP Turf 1 1/4
Saturday, Jun 05 Woody Stephens I $400,000.00 3YO Dirt 7 Furlongs

[spiderjohn]

My favorite race day of the year, especially when coupled with staying a week in manhattan. The “pony express” LIRR deal is a real bargain.

Missed the day last year, and will miss this year also. Ended. Close to a 40yr run. Skipping Royal Ascot and probably Del Mar BC also. Times and life has changed........

Meg a lot of UICers on those trips.....

[chuckster1968]

What a great day it will be because Mr. Baffert will not be allowed to enter nothing.  My guess the next person up in the witch hunt will be Mr. Rudy Rodriquez, I would also keep an eye out for Mr. Peter Miller numbers dropping.  

[1hooper]

Just heard Hardoon(Ragozin Sheets) on the Steve Byk show say Rombauer ran a 7 point top.

[eye123]

www.legacy.com/obituaries/vnews/obituary.aspx?n=len-ragozin&pid=198660529

[cherokeescot]

Malathaat bypassing.

www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/250241/malathaat-to-pass-belmont-stakes-point-for-saratoga

[mysaladdays]

May 18, 2021 2:57:30 GMT -5 chuckster1968 said:

My guess the next person up in the witch hunt will be Mr. Rudy Rodriquez, I would also keep an eye out for Mr. Peter Miller numbers dropping.  

The ole "things happen in three's" adage.  

[mysaladdays]

May 18, 2021 2:57:30 GMT -5 chuckster1968 said:

What a great day it will be because Mr. Baffert will not be allowed to enter nothing.  My guess the next person up in the witch hunt will be Mr. Rudy Rodriquez, I would also keep an eye out for Mr. Peter Miller numbers dropping.  

I call it a crook hunt.  

Witch hunt somehow implies it is an uncalled for investigation of innnocents.  

[gam]

May 18, 2021 10:17:09 GMT -5 1hooper said:

Just heard Hardoon(Ragozin Sheets) on the Steve Byk show say Rombauer ran a 7 point top.

TGs out for Preakness.  They have Rombauer with a 4.75 point new top.  I had his Blue Grass fig projected as a 3 based upon beaten lengths behind Essential Quality.  Third start of the year.  Nice jump up and it makes Prat's decision somewhat perplexing.

[1hooper]

At least 5 horses out of the Preakness need 8 weeks off. Some ugly patterns.

[1hooper]

Johnny V on Rombauer.

[mysaladdays]

May 22, 2021 12:39:32 GMT -5 1hooper said:

At least 5 horses out of the Preakness need 8 weeks off. Some ugly patterns.

Well thankfully, I got my wish and Midnight Bourbon is not running the The Belmont.   I was pretty upset about thinking they would juice the lemon by running him. 

Guys n' Gals, is it just me?  NYRA bills this as the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, 17 stakes races including 8 G1s.....

...and there is no page set up at NYRA with videos of breezing, works, gallops, etc.

This should be a *spectacle*........and yet........there's ........nothing. I don't even know what Althiqa and Summer Romance look like.



So I got to the Belmont Stakes page. I click on Racing, then Contenders........and am given Tap It to Win, Sole Volente, Tiz the Law................wait........what???


I click on Stakes Advance.....nothing but a wall of text.....and not even one photograph??



Just send $$ I guess.  The usual.  Or listen to the Talking Heads fall all over themselves (which I never do.....I don't purchase products either....becuase I like to figure out my own perceptions) 

But... and like during the Preakness, the one horse they talked the least about (or not at all), Rombauer, won the Preakness.   LOL   


If I hear one more time from Baffert himself (and many of the talking heads) about how he is the "face of U.S. racing" I'm going to throw something. 

News Flash:  The Horses are the Face Of Racing.   

[1hooper]

That is a piss poor website Salad. Maybe SmallMac can shake things up over there.
Stakes Past Performances linked near bottom on this page. www.nyra.com/belmont/horsemen/

[eye123]

[mysaladdays]

1hooper, TY.  


Asked a friend to look. He noticed the complete absence of the Pimlico / Preakness digitally-robust website this year.  He was unable to find what I am looking for, either.  




Perhaps we are wrong to expect the "Belmont Stakes Racing Festival" to have a digital presence.....breezing, works, gallops; video arrivals,  biographies of at least the G1 stakes horses, including those in our hallowed (??) 3rd leg of theTriple Crown w/biograhpies and nice big photos.    (I'd settle for walking the shedrow or getting a bath at this point!!)  

Are the TPTB this desperate to save operating costs?  Or worse, are they practicing a "the less said the better" model in the face of  latest news, i.e.  keep a low profile as it pertains to the embarassing state of U.S racing.   

(Or, triple worse, if Baffert isn't running a horse, there is nothing to talk about?   The horses themselves, and other trainers are merely afterthoughts.  )

[spanky]

Headlines the day after the Belmont: Hot Rod Charlie wins by a nose!

[mysaladdays]

I've decided to save my $$ for Ascot. And other racing jurisdictions.


After Navarro, Servis, Rice, Baffert, the raid at Parx, and seeing how Sadler gave Flagstaff bisphosponates (which I'm against...let them retire to farm if their bones aren't good)......plus all the stuff I DON'T know about, I decided to put wagering into U.S. racing on pause for a while. Probably the rest of the year at least.

I'm where some of you were before the Preakness, better late than never, I guess.  

[mysaladdays]

A shame about Rebel's Romance. Their game plan was admirable ---coming early many weeks before the race, their utter class, the horse comes first, has never been on bute or other meds.

...and connections not jerking everyone around, waiting til race day to scratch from the race....

Appleby will always take care of the horse first, last & always.


Nice to see. Transparency and putting the horse first, and connections acting with some class.

I do feel devastated as that was the horse I would have wagered if I had not decided to pass the race.

[eye123]

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes.


WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds: Average: 13.47-to-1
High: 70.25-to-1 (Sarava, 2002)
Low: .75-to-1 (American Pharoah, 2015)
Notable: 3 of the last 6 winners were 4-to-5 or less, including
Tiz the Law a year ago.




Place Odds: Average: 8.77-to-1
High: 28-to-1 (Commissioner, 2014)
Low: 1.95-to-1 (Tacitus, 2019)
Notable: The favorite has finished 2nd twice in the last 4 years
(Tacitus, 2019; Irish War Cry, 2017).




Show Odds: Average: 12.75-to-1
High: 34.25-to-1 (Anak Nakal, 2008)
Low: 1.00-to-1 (Funny Cide, 2003)
Notable: Orb in 2013 was the last Belmont favorite to finish third.




EXACTA PAYOFFS
(Last 20 years, $2 Payoffs)
Average: $295.33
High: $2454.00 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro, 2002)
Low: $13.60 (American Pharoah-Frosted, 2015)
Notable: 5 of the last 6 Belmont Stakes $2 exactas have paid
$96 or less.




TRIFECTA PAYOFFS
(Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $1413.22
High: $12,504.50 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday Break, 2002)
Low: $54.75 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice, 2015)
Notable: The $1 trifecta has paid $1000 or more in 6 of the last
20 years.




SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS
(Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $10,134.24
High: $72,667 (Sarava-Medaglia d’Oro-Sunday BreakMagic Weisner, 2002)
Low: $285 (American Pharoah-Frosted-Keen Ice-Mubtaahij, 2015)
Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers: 10.86-to-1
Notable: 6 of the last 8 Belmont superfectas paid $1000 or more.




LAST 10 FAVORITES
Year Horse Odds Fin.
2020 Tiz the Law 4-5 WON
2019 Tacitus 9-5 2nd
2018 Justify 4-5 WON
2017 Irish War Cry 5-2 2nd
2016 Exaggerator 7-5 11th
2015 American Pharoah 3-5 WON
2014 California Chrome 4-5 4th
2013 Orb 2-1 3rd
2012 Dullahan 5-2 7th
2011 Animal Kingdom 5-2 6th




HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
Odds Horse Year Fin.
70.25 Sarava 2002 WON
38.50 Da’Tara 2008 WON
36.00 Birdstone 2004 WON
34.25 Anak Nakal 2008 3rd/DH
28.75 Ready’s Echo 2008 3rd/DH
28.00 Commissioner 2014 2nd




BEATEN KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITES IN BELMONT (LAST 35 YEARS)
Year Horse Odds Fin.
2020 Tiz the Law* 4-5 (fav) WON
2003 Empire Maker 2-1 WON
2001 Point Given 6-5 (fav) WON
1993 Prairie Bayou 5-2 (fav) DNF
1991 Hansel 4-1 WON
1989 Easy Goer 8-5 WON
--2021, Essential Quality, Derby favorite (4th)
*--Belmont held before Derby




2019 & 2020 BELMONT HANDLE (IN MILLIONS)
Bet 2019 2020
WPS: $17.3 $12.0
Trifecta: $10.6 $6.4
Exacta: $9.9 $6.5
Super: $6.4 $3.7
Pick 4: $3.6 $1.2
Pick 6: $1.6 $685K

[shoes]

No horse will have run in all 3 TC races this year. Bring back the TC bonus!

[spanky]

These are the prices my book has now. Hot Rod Charlie is still my play.


BELMONT STAKES 2021
Bourbonic
+1600
Essential Quality
+225
Rombauer
+450
Hot Rod Charlie
+350
France Go De Ina
+1600
Known Agenda
+550
Rock Your World
+425
Overtook
+2650

[bobtailnag]

I won't be betting Saturday but I like Bourbonic for a key horse. It's a loooooong shot but he has 2 grandpas and both won the Belmont. It's in his genes.

[tc]

3 pletchers...only thing to do is to bet them all...overtook is the best wagering choice if you only want to pick one.

gl all.

[Badactor]

Jun 3, 2021 21:54:05 GMT -5 bobtailnag said:

I won't be betting Saturday but I like Bourbonic for a key horse. It's a loooooong shot but he has 2 grandpas and both won the Belmont. It's in his genes.

www.pedigreequery.com/bourbonic

[Badactor]

BELMONT STAKES ~ ODDS & ENTRIES

[mysaladdays]

Overtook is getting 8 pounds......seems like a lot of extra to carry for this distance since he's never carried over 118.

RYW and HRC no works at BEL.

Of note, Creator, Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice, Tonalist, Tapwrit and Sir Winston all had at least 1 if not 2-4 works at BEL before winning. Ruler On Ice had sharp works / bullets at Monmouth, another deep and sandy track.

Passing the BEL for the Epsom Derby.