LARRY’S PICKS for the 147th Kentucky Derby
Apr 28, 2021 12:04:13 GMT -5
Post by cherokeescot on Apr 28, 2021 12:04:13 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 147th Kentucky Derby, the most exciting 2 minutes in sports! A field of 19 colts and 1 gelding expect to answer the starters’ call seeking the fame and glory that accompanies a victory in the “RUN FOR THE ROSES”. Traditionally contested as the “1st leg of the Triple Crown” and on the “1st Saturday in May”, it was ran in September last year due to the COVID 19 pandemic but thankfully it is back to its regular schedule this time around.
My analysis will be in the order of post position draw with morning line odds reflected and I will comment on each runners’ respective chances for success as I see it. Thereafter, my personal “Selection” page will be on display at the end.
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN
TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
Sadly as most of you know Larry passed away on December 16, 2020 and this year’s “LARRY’S PICKS” is done in memory of a great handicapper and friend .
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
1) KNOWN AGENDA 6-1 JOCKEY IRAD ORTIZ JR.
The convincing Florida Derby winner had the misfortune to draw the #1 hole which has not seen a winner since Ferdinand ( a Larry’s Pick ) in 1986 but this son of Curlin certainly has the class to overcome the poor draw and with the new gate in operation for only the second time it may not be as impossible a task as it once was. Owner Vinnie Viola goes for his second Derby win after Always Dreaming of fulfilling this once in a lifetime achievement.
2) LIKE THE KING 50-1 JOCKEY DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
Wesley Ward saddles his first ever Derby runner but it would be a huge surprise if this royally bred colt (Palace Malice - Like A Queen ) could follow up his rare Jeff Ruby Steaks win at Turfway Park with a victory under the Twin Spires.
3) BROOKLYN STRONG 50-1 JOCKEY UMBERTO RISPOLI
The New York bred gelding was only 41st on the Road to Kentucky Derby points standings but after a series of late defections he made it into the field and will probably go off as the longest shot on the board. Umberto Rispoli gets his first Derby ride after the disappointment of losing the mount on the much fancied Rock Your World. Only costing $5k as a 2 year old at the Ocala Spring Sale he has already rewarded his connections handsomely .
4) KEEPMEINMIND 50-1 JOCKEY DAVID COHEN
Another longshot late entrant but his final prep bullet work over the track last week will be sure to attract some attention at the windows. Third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and a winner here in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November he is certainly one to keep in mind for the exotics.
5) SAINTHOOD 50-1 JOCKEY COREY LANERIE
Who would have thought that second place in the Jeff Ruby Steaks would guarantee you a spot in the Derby but that’s
racing for you. Although he does not appear to have the class to compete with most of these here he does have a couple of positives (not the Baffert type I stress) . Firstly he is trained by Todd Pletcher and secondly the #5 horse has had the most victories in the Derby since the war. Other than that he really doesn’t have a prayer.
6) O BESOS 20-1 JOCKEY MARCELINO PEDROZA
There will be lots of kisses in the winners circle from the large ownership group for this colt by Orb should he prevail. His speed figures suggest that he may struggle to keep up with the field but supporters can be encouraged by his strong third place finish in the Louisiana Derby.
7) MANDALOUN 15-1 JOCKEY FLORENT GEROUX
This Into Mischief home bred from Juddmonte Farms had done little wrong until a disappointing flop as favorite in the Louisiana Derby last time out. Has been impressive on the track in works leading up to the big dance and will be a solid value play for those willing to ignore his last effort.
8) MEDINA SPIRIT 15-1 JOCKEY JOHN VELASQUEZ
Not too long ago Bob Baffert had four serious contenders for the Roses and now he is down to this Florida bred son of Protonico who cost a mere $1k at the Ocala yearling sale. Appears well held by Rock Your World but is favorably drawn who would be surprised if the master magician was to pull off yet another Kentucky Derby win.
9) HOT ROD CHARLIE 8-1 JOCKEY FLAVIEN PRAT
Doug O’Neill resumes official training responsibilities of this son of Oxbow after missing the winning effort in the Louisiana Derby through suspension. Flavien Prat gets the ride this time after Joel Rosario opted originally for Concert Tour. Hot Rod Charlie will get plenty of attention in the post parade where he will be ponied to the gate by the much loved Lava Man.
10) MIDNIGHT BOURBON 20-1 JOCKEY MIKE SMITH
“Big Money” Mike Smith hops aboard this Tiznow colt for the first time after Joe Talamo had the ride in all three Fairgrounds preps. Distance should not be an issue for this guy but will be looking elsewhere for the top finishers.
11) DYNAMIC ONE 20-1 JOCKEY JOSE ORTIZ
Pricy Union Rags colt was part of a Pletcher 1-2 in the Wood Memorial. Should be up near the front from the get go and Jose Ortiz may well be keeping an eye out for his brother Irad on Known Agenda when it comes to the business end.
12) HELIUM 50-1 JOCKEY JULIEN LEPAROUX
Unbeaten in his three starts Helium is coming in somewhat under the radar having not been seen since his Tampa Bay Derby win on March 6th. Lack of experience could go against this inexpensive son of Ironicus who many not find the rarified atmosphere of Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs to his liking.
13) HIDDEN STASH 50-1 JOCKEY RAFAEL BEJARANO
This son of last year’s hot sire Constitution has a Churchill Downs win to his credit picking up an AOC last November but has not won since. First Derby runner for trainer Vicki Oliver who is the daughter of prominent owner/breeder G. Watts Humphrey Jr.
14) ESSENTIAL QUALITY 2-1 JOCKEY LUIS SAEZ
The Derby favorite has done nothing wrong in his five starts to date including taking the Breeders Cup Juvenile title at Keeneland last November. The son of prolific sire Tapit represents Godolphin’s best chance so far of picking up one of the few major races in the world that has eluded them and there will be a whole lot of sheiking going on in Dubai if EQ pulls it off. Meanwhile Luis Saez will be hoping for a less eventful trip than he had on Maximum Security and he is strictly the one to beat.
15) ROCK YOUR WORLD 5-1 JOCKEY JOEL ROSARIO
Undefeated in three starts the Candy Ride colt leads the West Coast contenders after a convincing
win in the Santa Anita Derby last time out. Joel Rosario who may well be the best jockey in our orb right now lands the mount for the hot John Sadler barn. Would expect him to be right alongside Essential Quality for most of the trip.
16) KING FURY 20-1 JOCKEY BRIAN HERNANDEZ JR
Kenny McPeek has been known to get some long shots home in the big races (Sarava, anyone ) and this $950k son of Curlin certainly has the pedigree to bring home the roses. Made it to the big dance via a win in the Lexington and is seeking to become the first winner of the Derby to do that since Charismatic in 1999. Has got a couple of wins over the track and did impress onlookers with his works this week (but then again who didn’t)
17) HIGHLY MOTIVATED 10-1 JOCKEY JAVIER CASTELLANO
One of three Into Mischief colts in the field , he gave hot favorite Essential Quality all he could handle in the Blue Grass after a disappointing effort in the Gotham. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano have a strong incentive to do well here as this would be the first Kentucky Derby win for both of these giants of racing .
18) SUPER STOCK 30-1 JOCKEY RICARDO SANTANA JR
After his somewhat surprising win in the Arkansas Derby where he wiped out the Derby aspirations of Caddo River and Concert Tour his connections immediately dialed in on the first Saturday in May. The lesser fancied of the two Steve Asmussen runners on paper he has quite a bit to do to become the first Derby winner for the Hall of Fame trainer. Most experienced horse in the race with 8 runs already on his resume.
19) SOUP AND SANDWICH 30-1 JOCKEY TYLER GAFFALIONE
Well named grey colt made a favorable impression in the Florida Derby when second to Known Agenda in only his third appearance . A home bread by Charlotte Weber , heiress to the Campbell’s Soup millions , this son of Into Mischief out of the Tapit mare Souper Scoop, should be in the forefront from the get go and may still be around for dessert.
20) BOURBONIC 30-1 JOCKEY KENDRICK CARMOUCHE
Todd Pletcher gets both the inside and outside draws but the wide draw here should not be too detrimental for this deep closing son of Bernardini. Kendrick Carmouche gets the ride again after piloting him to a 72-1 shock victory in a sub-par Wood Memorial. Look for him late , if at all.
“SELECTIONS”
1st - (#17) HIGHLY MOTIVATED 10-1 JOCKEY JAVIER CASTELLANO
Horse #17 has never won the Kentucky Derby before but if there was a year to break the jinx then 2021 would be the appropriate year. Beaten only a neck by Essential Quality in the Blue Grass I hope that given the additional furlong the Chad Brown trainee can turn the tables on the worthy favorite at five times the odds !
2nd - (#14) ESSENTIAL QUALITY 2-1 JOCKEY LUIS SAEZ
The unbeaten favorite has done absolutely nothing wrong in his five previous starts and it would be no surprise to this humble scribe if he ended up in the winner’s circle again here . But I can’t pick a 2-1 shot in a 20 horse field as it would not look great in the bio and there is always a chance of the unexpected,
.
3rd - (#15) ROCK YOUR WORLD 5-1 JOCKEY JOEL ROSARIO
Was most impressive in the Santa Anita Derby and am expecting to see him and my top two choices break away from the field as we head into the final furlong. This unbeaten star may certainly rock your world and everyone else’s if he wins today.
4th - (#19) SOUP AND SANDWICH 30-1 JOCKEY TYLER GAFFALIONE
It may be no soup for you but in looking for a long shot to spice up my exotics this lovely grey fits the menu for me at a most desireable prix fixe !
I hope you enjoy the 147th Kentucky Derby ! Good luck to all who play today and let’s bring them all back safe !
In homage to Larry La Tour , sadly missed by all who knew him but never forgotten
My analysis will be in the order of post position draw with morning line odds reflected and I will comment on each runners’ respective chances for success as I see it. Thereafter, my personal “Selection” page will be on display at the end.
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN
TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
Sadly as most of you know Larry passed away on December 16, 2020 and this year’s “LARRY’S PICKS” is done in memory of a great handicapper and friend .
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
1) KNOWN AGENDA 6-1 JOCKEY IRAD ORTIZ JR.
The convincing Florida Derby winner had the misfortune to draw the #1 hole which has not seen a winner since Ferdinand ( a Larry’s Pick ) in 1986 but this son of Curlin certainly has the class to overcome the poor draw and with the new gate in operation for only the second time it may not be as impossible a task as it once was. Owner Vinnie Viola goes for his second Derby win after Always Dreaming of fulfilling this once in a lifetime achievement.
2) LIKE THE KING 50-1 JOCKEY DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
Wesley Ward saddles his first ever Derby runner but it would be a huge surprise if this royally bred colt (Palace Malice - Like A Queen ) could follow up his rare Jeff Ruby Steaks win at Turfway Park with a victory under the Twin Spires.
3) BROOKLYN STRONG 50-1 JOCKEY UMBERTO RISPOLI
The New York bred gelding was only 41st on the Road to Kentucky Derby points standings but after a series of late defections he made it into the field and will probably go off as the longest shot on the board. Umberto Rispoli gets his first Derby ride after the disappointment of losing the mount on the much fancied Rock Your World. Only costing $5k as a 2 year old at the Ocala Spring Sale he has already rewarded his connections handsomely .
4) KEEPMEINMIND 50-1 JOCKEY DAVID COHEN
Another longshot late entrant but his final prep bullet work over the track last week will be sure to attract some attention at the windows. Third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and a winner here in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November he is certainly one to keep in mind for the exotics.
5) SAINTHOOD 50-1 JOCKEY COREY LANERIE
Who would have thought that second place in the Jeff Ruby Steaks would guarantee you a spot in the Derby but that’s
racing for you. Although he does not appear to have the class to compete with most of these here he does have a couple of positives (not the Baffert type I stress) . Firstly he is trained by Todd Pletcher and secondly the #5 horse has had the most victories in the Derby since the war. Other than that he really doesn’t have a prayer.
6) O BESOS 20-1 JOCKEY MARCELINO PEDROZA
There will be lots of kisses in the winners circle from the large ownership group for this colt by Orb should he prevail. His speed figures suggest that he may struggle to keep up with the field but supporters can be encouraged by his strong third place finish in the Louisiana Derby.
7) MANDALOUN 15-1 JOCKEY FLORENT GEROUX
This Into Mischief home bred from Juddmonte Farms had done little wrong until a disappointing flop as favorite in the Louisiana Derby last time out. Has been impressive on the track in works leading up to the big dance and will be a solid value play for those willing to ignore his last effort.
8) MEDINA SPIRIT 15-1 JOCKEY JOHN VELASQUEZ
Not too long ago Bob Baffert had four serious contenders for the Roses and now he is down to this Florida bred son of Protonico who cost a mere $1k at the Ocala yearling sale. Appears well held by Rock Your World but is favorably drawn who would be surprised if the master magician was to pull off yet another Kentucky Derby win.
9) HOT ROD CHARLIE 8-1 JOCKEY FLAVIEN PRAT
Doug O’Neill resumes official training responsibilities of this son of Oxbow after missing the winning effort in the Louisiana Derby through suspension. Flavien Prat gets the ride this time after Joel Rosario opted originally for Concert Tour. Hot Rod Charlie will get plenty of attention in the post parade where he will be ponied to the gate by the much loved Lava Man.
10) MIDNIGHT BOURBON 20-1 JOCKEY MIKE SMITH
“Big Money” Mike Smith hops aboard this Tiznow colt for the first time after Joe Talamo had the ride in all three Fairgrounds preps. Distance should not be an issue for this guy but will be looking elsewhere for the top finishers.
11) DYNAMIC ONE 20-1 JOCKEY JOSE ORTIZ
Pricy Union Rags colt was part of a Pletcher 1-2 in the Wood Memorial. Should be up near the front from the get go and Jose Ortiz may well be keeping an eye out for his brother Irad on Known Agenda when it comes to the business end.
12) HELIUM 50-1 JOCKEY JULIEN LEPAROUX
Unbeaten in his three starts Helium is coming in somewhat under the radar having not been seen since his Tampa Bay Derby win on March 6th. Lack of experience could go against this inexpensive son of Ironicus who many not find the rarified atmosphere of Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs to his liking.
13) HIDDEN STASH 50-1 JOCKEY RAFAEL BEJARANO
This son of last year’s hot sire Constitution has a Churchill Downs win to his credit picking up an AOC last November but has not won since. First Derby runner for trainer Vicki Oliver who is the daughter of prominent owner/breeder G. Watts Humphrey Jr.
14) ESSENTIAL QUALITY 2-1 JOCKEY LUIS SAEZ
The Derby favorite has done nothing wrong in his five starts to date including taking the Breeders Cup Juvenile title at Keeneland last November. The son of prolific sire Tapit represents Godolphin’s best chance so far of picking up one of the few major races in the world that has eluded them and there will be a whole lot of sheiking going on in Dubai if EQ pulls it off. Meanwhile Luis Saez will be hoping for a less eventful trip than he had on Maximum Security and he is strictly the one to beat.
15) ROCK YOUR WORLD 5-1 JOCKEY JOEL ROSARIO
Undefeated in three starts the Candy Ride colt leads the West Coast contenders after a convincing
win in the Santa Anita Derby last time out. Joel Rosario who may well be the best jockey in our orb right now lands the mount for the hot John Sadler barn. Would expect him to be right alongside Essential Quality for most of the trip.
16) KING FURY 20-1 JOCKEY BRIAN HERNANDEZ JR
Kenny McPeek has been known to get some long shots home in the big races (Sarava, anyone ) and this $950k son of Curlin certainly has the pedigree to bring home the roses. Made it to the big dance via a win in the Lexington and is seeking to become the first winner of the Derby to do that since Charismatic in 1999. Has got a couple of wins over the track and did impress onlookers with his works this week (but then again who didn’t)
17) HIGHLY MOTIVATED 10-1 JOCKEY JAVIER CASTELLANO
One of three Into Mischief colts in the field , he gave hot favorite Essential Quality all he could handle in the Blue Grass after a disappointing effort in the Gotham. Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano have a strong incentive to do well here as this would be the first Kentucky Derby win for both of these giants of racing .
18) SUPER STOCK 30-1 JOCKEY RICARDO SANTANA JR
After his somewhat surprising win in the Arkansas Derby where he wiped out the Derby aspirations of Caddo River and Concert Tour his connections immediately dialed in on the first Saturday in May. The lesser fancied of the two Steve Asmussen runners on paper he has quite a bit to do to become the first Derby winner for the Hall of Fame trainer. Most experienced horse in the race with 8 runs already on his resume.
19) SOUP AND SANDWICH 30-1 JOCKEY TYLER GAFFALIONE
Well named grey colt made a favorable impression in the Florida Derby when second to Known Agenda in only his third appearance . A home bread by Charlotte Weber , heiress to the Campbell’s Soup millions , this son of Into Mischief out of the Tapit mare Souper Scoop, should be in the forefront from the get go and may still be around for dessert.
20) BOURBONIC 30-1 JOCKEY KENDRICK CARMOUCHE
Todd Pletcher gets both the inside and outside draws but the wide draw here should not be too detrimental for this deep closing son of Bernardini. Kendrick Carmouche gets the ride again after piloting him to a 72-1 shock victory in a sub-par Wood Memorial. Look for him late , if at all.
“SELECTIONS”
1st - (#17) HIGHLY MOTIVATED 10-1 JOCKEY JAVIER CASTELLANO
Horse #17 has never won the Kentucky Derby before but if there was a year to break the jinx then 2021 would be the appropriate year. Beaten only a neck by Essential Quality in the Blue Grass I hope that given the additional furlong the Chad Brown trainee can turn the tables on the worthy favorite at five times the odds !
2nd - (#14) ESSENTIAL QUALITY 2-1 JOCKEY LUIS SAEZ
The unbeaten favorite has done absolutely nothing wrong in his five previous starts and it would be no surprise to this humble scribe if he ended up in the winner’s circle again here . But I can’t pick a 2-1 shot in a 20 horse field as it would not look great in the bio and there is always a chance of the unexpected,
.
3rd - (#15) ROCK YOUR WORLD 5-1 JOCKEY JOEL ROSARIO
Was most impressive in the Santa Anita Derby and am expecting to see him and my top two choices break away from the field as we head into the final furlong. This unbeaten star may certainly rock your world and everyone else’s if he wins today.
4th - (#19) SOUP AND SANDWICH 30-1 JOCKEY TYLER GAFFALIONE
It may be no soup for you but in looking for a long shot to spice up my exotics this lovely grey fits the menu for me at a most desireable prix fixe !
I hope you enjoy the 147th Kentucky Derby ! Good luck to all who play today and let’s bring them all back safe !
In homage to Larry La Tour , sadly missed by all who knew him but never forgotten
