Two chalk I can scratch

[bobtailnag]

Known was my top choice but it's been 56 years since a horse won out of the 1-hole at CD on the first Saturday in May.

Rock Your World my 2nd choice, - in the past 140 years only one horse (Justify) has won the derby that didn't race as a 2 year old.

I realize both still has a chance simply because they're 2 of the 20 in the race but those are two significant considerations when trying to reduce 20 to 1 or 2. 

Best wishes all.

[forego]

Apr 27, 2021 21:49:22 GMT -5 bobtailnag said:

Known was my top choice but it's been 56 years since a horse won out of the 1-hole at CD on the first Saturday in May.

Rock Your World my 2nd choice, - in the past 140 years only one horse (Justify) has won the derby that didn't race as a 2 year old.

I realize both still has a chance simply because they're 2 of the 20 in the race but those are two significant considerations when trying to reduce 20 to 1 or 2. 

Best wishes all.

Bobtail -- Ferdinand won the Derby in 1986 from post 1, so it's only been 34 years if you want to reconsider  .

RYW had his first race on Jan 1st, I'm willing to overlook the no races at 2 in this instance as 24 hours earlier and it wouldn't be a reason to throw the top beyer number in the field out. 

Forego

[ozzy]

I was about to comment on Ferdinand as well but Forego beat me to it. And, with the new 20 horse gate, it's still the rail draw but it is not the kiss of death the former 2 gate start used to be. The gate is moved about 15 feet out and it's a fairly straight long run out of there into the first turn. Still, Known Agenda will have the crush of horses potentially coming over and will have to be used a bit but it's not like the 4-5 to his outside are speedballs. I could actually see him getting away nicely and being in a good spot going to the first turn. I'm not going to bet that happens at 6-1 (I think he'll be higher) but I could see it working out nicely for a decent trip just as easily as it being a disaster.

I honestly do not think the draw really hurt any horse too badly. I am sure TAP would love to swap Bourbonic and KA in the 1 and 20 posts. Outside of that, I think maybe Highly Motivated might have a little more to do trying to get over from the outside but at first glance, nothing alarming aside from the ML odds on Essentially Quality who I think goes forward 3-1, maybe even 7/2.

[bobtailnag]

Thanks Forego - I stand corrected.

[shoes]

I've been taking a long look at Known Agenda as well. His Florida Derby impressed me as much as anyone's prep in how tractable he seemed.I have looked at the visual of the new gate to the rail compared to the old gate to the rail and is definitely an improvement. Maybe if you like him and the bad rep (deserved) of the rail draw floats his odds up, it will be the proverbial blessing in disguise.

[bobtailnag]

Thanks shoe. I was going to play him anyway but not on the top of the ticket. And since I had missed the Ferdy win I'll need to re-evaluate - but I'm still thinking he's not my top play Saturday.

[turffan]

Still early but as of now my top two are Essential Quality and Rock Your World (yes the two favorites). Rock Your World reminded me of Barbaro who started his career on the turf then took to the dirt. Getting a lot of consideration below those two is Known Agenda and Highly Motivated. I'll be looking for a clunker or two to fill out the super and maybe the tri. This looks like a contentious edition but you can't play 'em all. Well you can, but you'll go broke.

[spiderjohn]

Hidden Stash is my main option bomb to crash the tri. Seems to consistently keep coming late, and the Humphrey/Oliver KY connection should be a plus.
Also like Sainthood and Helium to run better than their odds.

As for the win, I can't get past the obvious:
EQ, Hot Rod, Highly Motivated, outside shot Rock Your World.
Weather and pace being main factors, especially when a few of these riders panic to move early, get in to trouble or shuffled to far behind

[mysaladdays]

Known Agenda is a little like Country House.....you have to love his stamina breeding, same as if you like Sainthood. Will be interesting to see which one of these prevails over the other. Don't know that I would toss KA off my ticket due to his breeding.

Highly Motivated's odds will be too low for me -- he's a terrible gate horse, which matters in the KY Derby. I have a few pedigree knocks on him as well (so I've tossed Highly Motivated from the WIN spot, along with Midnight Bourbon, Keepmeinmind, Hot Rod Charlie, Hidden Stash, Mandaloun,  and Soup and Sandwich). If he beats me he beats me. I probably won't even use HM in an exacta, either.

My ticket will probably be the undefeated horses + those who have never run out of the money in any races. There's a few in those categories who would make good longshots such as Like The King, Sainthood, Medina, Helium. I like Obesos and King Fury too, if looking at high odds horses who might crash a ticket. 

There are just some in here who seem like they will be better in the Belmont, like Dynamic One, RYW, King Fury, Sainthood.  But Rombauer and others like Rebel's Romance may enter by Belmont time as well. 

[bobtailnag]

I have not been able to get the number, or estimate, of the number of horses who ran in the derby who did not race as a 2 year old. As for as know it could have been 4 or 104. I think it best to just ignore that angle and charge ahead.

Every now and then I see a young horse start off his career looking like the next coming of Man O' War, winning his first 3 or 4 races with easy wins drawing away. Then as a 3yr old, by May or June he's looking like just another nice horse winning a stakes race now and then. Horses, like people, don't all mature at the same rate. Could EQ be one of those types? Could the other 3yr olds be catching up with him? Highly Motivated either just catch up to him? I don't know but we're going to find out tomorrow.

[spiderjohn]

Top choices not on my tickets:
Malathaat
Search Results

Cool Bobby
Ghazaaly
Got Stormy
Flagstaff

Known Agenda
Mandaloun
Rock Your World
Highly Motivated

Good luck!