Observations after multiple re-watches preps includes Lex S
Apr 23, 2021 17:14:25 GMT -5
Post by shoes on Apr 23, 2021 17:14:25 GMT -5
Tampa Derby
May not have been a great field. Helium broke next to last in a field of 12. Ran wide on the first turn and down the backstretch. Made a big move just going into the final turn to take the lead. If I hadn’t known the result, I would have thought he moved too soon, when Hidden Stash came right up to him in mid stretch but Helium repelled him to win by a length, so despite that big move, he had some energy left and he ran further than anyone else.. Lightly raced 2 times as a 2 year old, both wins at Woodbine and the Tampa Bay Derby was his only prep at age 3. Will be a big price but I think I am using him. Hidden Stash made a pretty big move of his own, but yielded when he looked Helium in the eye. Hidden stash came back to finish 4th in the Bluegrass, beaten 10 lengths.
Fractions were decent but not crushing for a 1 1/16 mile race. 47 flat for the half and 1:11 and 1/5 for the 6 F.
Florida Derby
I rewatched the Florida Derby a couple of times. Known Agenda got a perfect trip. Sat inside on the rail around the first turn and on the backstretch in 5th place. Never had his progress impeded. He sped up a bit when needed to save his spot on the rail, angled out after the final turn and cruised easily past the tiring leaders (pace was solid, but not suicidal). He had an ideal trip but that may be in large part due to Irad Oritiz and the horse’s responsiveness to Irad’s direction at every point.
I definitely have to consider him a big player.
Louisiana Derby
I rewatched the Louisiana Derby multiple times Once to watch Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon, once for Mandaloun and once for Obesos. Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon broke to the front out of the gate with Charlie gaining a slight edge and leading the whole way to eventually win by 2. Fractions were the same as the Tampa Bay Derby 47 and 1:11 and 1, though the race was 1 3/16 ( 1/8 longer). At no point did it look like Midnight Bourbon was going to get by HRC. Mandaloun, the pre race favorite went wide into the first turn and moved up to sit 3rd just off of the top 2 and to their outside but was gassed by the turn and fell way back in the stretch.
Obesos broke 8th and last, angled down to the 2 path. He was still 8th and last till he began moving up on the rail entering the far turn. He closed pretty well and was only beaten a nose for second by Midnight Bourbon.
Before completely dismissing Mandaloun I decided to go back and watch his prior race in the Risen Star.
In that Race Midnight Bourbon tracked a long shot pace setter and Mandaloun again raced wide getting up to 3rd. Shortly after Midnight Bourbon took the lead, Mandaloun pulled up on his outside and grinded past him wearing him down while winning. Midnight Bourbon gave up 2nd to Proxy very late. Obesos was also in this race, went wide on both turns and finished well back in 4th.
I am off of Midnight Bourbon after watching these 2 races, as he backed down when challenged both times. Obesos seems to be a buzz horse at CD, but I’m not sure he’s good enough in a field of 20. The big difference between his closing 3rd, almost 2nd in the Louisiana vs his distant 4th in the Risen star was that in the Louisiana he saved ground and in the Risen star he didn’t.
The fact that Rosario favors Rock Your World over Hot Rod Charlie is a concern.
Jeff Ruby Stakes
10 year anniversary of Animal Kingdom's win. Both Like the King and Sainthood closed strongly but I feel like Sainthood might have won that but for getting shut off when they were both moving. Todd hasn’t named a jockey yet? I very much see why Dell likes Sainthood.
The Wood Memorial
First off per the clock this was a very slow race. The half in a slooww 50 seconds, 6 f in 1:14 and 4/5 and the final time for the 1 1/8 of 1:54 2/5. Dynamic One made a nice middle/late move to go from 7th (of 9) to take the lead and looked like the winner until Bourbonic rallied from dead last 8 lengths back on the final turn to win passing the other horses like they were in quicksand and he wasn’t. As I recall the wind was blowing that day at Aqueduct and times were generally slow, so he probably benefitted from having the rest of the field act as a windbreak till he made his very late move. Still that was an mazing close.
The experts have 2 views on the Wood as best as I can discern: either the race stunk and toss both of them, or Dynamic One ran the best race of the two and is worthy of consideration. I don’t quite get that though as he didn’t have any traffic trouble, also closed so it wasn’t like he was contesting the pace, yet Bourbonic still beat him.
The Bluegrass Stakes
This race had the most even splits of all of the preps I watched: 48 1/5 for the half 1:12 for 6 f and a final time of 1:48 and 2. Highly Motivated and Essential Quality ran 1 and 2 all the way around with EQ just off him most of the way then prevailing by a head at the wire. Hard to separate except will to win points for EQ. As many have noted this could have been a very taxing race for both, is 4 weeks enough time to recover? I need a smart unbiased trainer to tell me.
Santa Anita Derby
The pace was the fastest of all the preps, 22 and change for the quarter, 46 flat for the half and 1:10 and 3 for the 6 f, though the final time of 1:49 reflects that the last 3/8 were a bit slow 38 and 2. Both Medina Spirit and Rock Your World broke sharp with Rock quickly assuming the lead, with Medina in 3rd before taking over second early in the stretch. They were on near even terms for a bit but Rock always looked to be going easier and steadily extended his lead until the wire where he finished 4 1/4 lengths in front. Rock your world looked strong throughout in only his 3rd lifetime start and first on dirt. Both might be part of the Derby pace, which the more I look at it, figures to be pretty strong, especially with Caddo River who is committed to going out fast.
Arkansas Derby
The top 3 were the top 3 all the way around. Caddo River took the lead and Concert Tour sat just outside him. The winner, Super stock was never more than 3 lengths back with a good spot behind the top 2 at the rail. The pace was a solid 46 and 2/5 at the half and 1:11and 1/5 for 6f. Just as it looked like Concert Tour would go by Caddo River (and he did briefly), Super Stock angled out from the rail and cruised by both of them with Caddo River beating Concert Tour to the wire for 2nd. Concert tour and Caddo River apparently burned each other out because they came home really slow (39 seconds for the last 3/8), which made Super Stock look like he was accelerating when he really wasn’t.
Hozier did nothing and never threatened. Why Baffert put him back in the mix, he is 21st in the points standings, I have no idea. Can’t recommend any of these.
My mind is not made up, can be persuaded if I missed something and will probably rewatch them all multiple more times.
edit- April 24- Baffert has thankfully declared Hozier out again and with Dream Shake going in the Pat Day mile, King Fury draws in- so.....
Lexington Stakes
This 1 1/16 grade 3 was contested on a sloppy track- which King Fury appeared to love. He got hung a bit wide from his outside (9th) post position going into the first turn but then angled in to sit 8th starting down the backstretch, He moved up steadily all the way down the back stretch on the rail and took the lead coming out of the final turn. Though sloppy, the track played pretty fast -22 and 2, 45 and 4, 1:11 and 1 and a final of !:43 and 2. He was tons the best here (final margin of 2 3/4 lengths. Hard to say how much the track aided his performance but he did have a fast track route win at CD in the Street Sense listed stakes last Oct, and he ran 7th of 14 in the Breeder's Cup juvenile, so I think this is one long shot that very much belongs in this field.
May not have been a great field. Helium broke next to last in a field of 12. Ran wide on the first turn and down the backstretch. Made a big move just going into the final turn to take the lead. If I hadn’t known the result, I would have thought he moved too soon, when Hidden Stash came right up to him in mid stretch but Helium repelled him to win by a length, so despite that big move, he had some energy left and he ran further than anyone else.. Lightly raced 2 times as a 2 year old, both wins at Woodbine and the Tampa Bay Derby was his only prep at age 3. Will be a big price but I think I am using him. Hidden Stash made a pretty big move of his own, but yielded when he looked Helium in the eye. Hidden stash came back to finish 4th in the Bluegrass, beaten 10 lengths.
Fractions were decent but not crushing for a 1 1/16 mile race. 47 flat for the half and 1:11 and 1/5 for the 6 F.
Florida Derby
I rewatched the Florida Derby a couple of times. Known Agenda got a perfect trip. Sat inside on the rail around the first turn and on the backstretch in 5th place. Never had his progress impeded. He sped up a bit when needed to save his spot on the rail, angled out after the final turn and cruised easily past the tiring leaders (pace was solid, but not suicidal). He had an ideal trip but that may be in large part due to Irad Oritiz and the horse’s responsiveness to Irad’s direction at every point.
I definitely have to consider him a big player.
Louisiana Derby
I rewatched the Louisiana Derby multiple times Once to watch Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon, once for Mandaloun and once for Obesos. Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon broke to the front out of the gate with Charlie gaining a slight edge and leading the whole way to eventually win by 2. Fractions were the same as the Tampa Bay Derby 47 and 1:11 and 1, though the race was 1 3/16 ( 1/8 longer). At no point did it look like Midnight Bourbon was going to get by HRC. Mandaloun, the pre race favorite went wide into the first turn and moved up to sit 3rd just off of the top 2 and to their outside but was gassed by the turn and fell way back in the stretch.
Obesos broke 8th and last, angled down to the 2 path. He was still 8th and last till he began moving up on the rail entering the far turn. He closed pretty well and was only beaten a nose for second by Midnight Bourbon.
Before completely dismissing Mandaloun I decided to go back and watch his prior race in the Risen Star.
In that Race Midnight Bourbon tracked a long shot pace setter and Mandaloun again raced wide getting up to 3rd. Shortly after Midnight Bourbon took the lead, Mandaloun pulled up on his outside and grinded past him wearing him down while winning. Midnight Bourbon gave up 2nd to Proxy very late. Obesos was also in this race, went wide on both turns and finished well back in 4th.
I am off of Midnight Bourbon after watching these 2 races, as he backed down when challenged both times. Obesos seems to be a buzz horse at CD, but I’m not sure he’s good enough in a field of 20. The big difference between his closing 3rd, almost 2nd in the Louisiana vs his distant 4th in the Risen star was that in the Louisiana he saved ground and in the Risen star he didn’t.
The fact that Rosario favors Rock Your World over Hot Rod Charlie is a concern.
Jeff Ruby Stakes
10 year anniversary of Animal Kingdom's win. Both Like the King and Sainthood closed strongly but I feel like Sainthood might have won that but for getting shut off when they were both moving. Todd hasn’t named a jockey yet? I very much see why Dell likes Sainthood.
The Wood Memorial
First off per the clock this was a very slow race. The half in a slooww 50 seconds, 6 f in 1:14 and 4/5 and the final time for the 1 1/8 of 1:54 2/5. Dynamic One made a nice middle/late move to go from 7th (of 9) to take the lead and looked like the winner until Bourbonic rallied from dead last 8 lengths back on the final turn to win passing the other horses like they were in quicksand and he wasn’t. As I recall the wind was blowing that day at Aqueduct and times were generally slow, so he probably benefitted from having the rest of the field act as a windbreak till he made his very late move. Still that was an mazing close.
The experts have 2 views on the Wood as best as I can discern: either the race stunk and toss both of them, or Dynamic One ran the best race of the two and is worthy of consideration. I don’t quite get that though as he didn’t have any traffic trouble, also closed so it wasn’t like he was contesting the pace, yet Bourbonic still beat him.
The Bluegrass Stakes
This race had the most even splits of all of the preps I watched: 48 1/5 for the half 1:12 for 6 f and a final time of 1:48 and 2. Highly Motivated and Essential Quality ran 1 and 2 all the way around with EQ just off him most of the way then prevailing by a head at the wire. Hard to separate except will to win points for EQ. As many have noted this could have been a very taxing race for both, is 4 weeks enough time to recover? I need a smart unbiased trainer to tell me.
Santa Anita Derby
The pace was the fastest of all the preps, 22 and change for the quarter, 46 flat for the half and 1:10 and 3 for the 6 f, though the final time of 1:49 reflects that the last 3/8 were a bit slow 38 and 2. Both Medina Spirit and Rock Your World broke sharp with Rock quickly assuming the lead, with Medina in 3rd before taking over second early in the stretch. They were on near even terms for a bit but Rock always looked to be going easier and steadily extended his lead until the wire where he finished 4 1/4 lengths in front. Rock your world looked strong throughout in only his 3rd lifetime start and first on dirt. Both might be part of the Derby pace, which the more I look at it, figures to be pretty strong, especially with Caddo River who is committed to going out fast.
Arkansas Derby
The top 3 were the top 3 all the way around. Caddo River took the lead and Concert Tour sat just outside him. The winner, Super stock was never more than 3 lengths back with a good spot behind the top 2 at the rail. The pace was a solid 46 and 2/5 at the half and 1:11and 1/5 for 6f. Just as it looked like Concert Tour would go by Caddo River (and he did briefly), Super Stock angled out from the rail and cruised by both of them with Caddo River beating Concert Tour to the wire for 2nd. Concert tour and Caddo River apparently burned each other out because they came home really slow (39 seconds for the last 3/8), which made Super Stock look like he was accelerating when he really wasn’t.
Hozier did nothing and never threatened. Why Baffert put him back in the mix, he is 21st in the points standings, I have no idea. Can’t recommend any of these.
My mind is not made up, can be persuaded if I missed something and will probably rewatch them all multiple more times.
edit- April 24- Baffert has thankfully declared Hozier out again and with Dream Shake going in the Pat Day mile, King Fury draws in- so.....
Lexington Stakes
This 1 1/16 grade 3 was contested on a sloppy track- which King Fury appeared to love. He got hung a bit wide from his outside (9th) post position going into the first turn but then angled in to sit 8th starting down the backstretch, He moved up steadily all the way down the back stretch on the rail and took the lead coming out of the final turn. Though sloppy, the track played pretty fast -22 and 2, 45 and 4, 1:11 and 1 and a final of !:43 and 2. He was tons the best here (final margin of 2 3/4 lengths. Hard to say how much the track aided his performance but he did have a fast track route win at CD in the Street Sense listed stakes last Oct, and he ran 7th of 14 in the Breeder's Cup juvenile, so I think this is one long shot that very much belongs in this field.
