51*

[Badactor]

51 of the 146 Kentucky Derby winners
have won the Derby as the race favorite.
From 2013 to 2020 winners include:
Justify (2018),
Nyquist (2016),
American Pharoah (2015),
California Chrome (2014)
Orb (2013).

[1hooper]

35%

PredictEm article.

Public betting favorites win approximately 33 percent of all races and finish second 53 percent of the time. Second choices win approximately 21 percent of all races and finish second 42 percent of the time. So the top two choices win 54 percent of the races and finish second 74 percent of the time. You might even want to consider the fact that third choices win approximately 14 percent of all races run over the course of a year.
Additional percentage facts to consider are that public favorites in 6-horse fields win approximately 40 percent of the time at an average win price of just over even money, while public favorites in 12-horse fields win approximately 27 percent of their races at an average win price of almost 2-1.

[forego]

Apr 22, 2021 9:44:05 GMT -5 1hooper said:

35%

PredictEm article.

Public betting favorites win approximately 33 percent of all races and finish second 53 percent of the time. Second choices win approximately 21 percent of all races and finish second 42 percent of the time. So the top two choices win 54 percent of the races and finish second 74 percent of the time. You might even want to consider the fact that third choices win approximately 14 percent of all races run over the course of a year.
Additional percentage facts to consider are that public favorites in 6-horse fields win approximately 40 percent of the time at an average win price of just over even money, while public favorites in 12-horse fields win approximately 27 percent of their races at an average win price of almost 2-1.

Interesting stats Hoop!  I didn't realize the place %'s were so high for first and second choices.  Just to double check with you, favs finish 2nd 53% & 2nd choice finish 2nd 42%, so 95% (?) of the time the 1st/2nd choices are in the top two?

You wouldn't happen to have stats for dirt vs. turf?  I'd imagine the percentages would drop a fair bit looking at just turf races.

Forego

[ski]

You don't need favorites my friend. Just find another bomber in the Oaks.

[forego]

Haha...I'm looking ski! Hope all is well with you!!!

Forego