Not sure if it was just last year or prior years, but my one sportsbook offered an over/under on final time. I think it was set at 2:02 (and maybe a couple fifths higher). I guess they were using historical norms and not taking into account the race was being run Labor Day Weekend instead of first Saturday in May. Heck, IIRC, Tiz The Law broke 2:00 in the Travers, which is extremely rare. After I saw some times on the early races I loaded up (in relative terms) on the Under. Did the same thing for the Preakness. Not sure if that'll be offered this year or not. It's not as of now. Since at that time last year my book had screwed me by cancelling season long MLB bets that were certain winners, I got some extra satisfaction from building my balance on those two wagers.
Out of curiosity, I just pulled up the wager in the history and it was actually 2:03. Particularly after the early races came up on the fast side that day, that was a gift. Wish I'd bet more!!
202:65 is a tossup, I'd say. My guess is they've done the research and the median time is right around there. If the track is playing fast, it might be a good under, but this doesn't necessarily look like the fastest Derby group with only one negative TG number among the crew and that one just barely.
My bookie dropped by today to collect from my bro and said he didn't have a dollar wagered on Medina Spirit. Bro makes one bet a year. A bit quirky. Not me...I'll bet on which bird flies off a fence first (I've done it). I am the poor man's, Mattress Mike. Yipee! My Astros just banged a four-bagger vs. the hated NYY in the top of the first.