GP 3/27

[spiderjohn]

race 2
#4 MOZO BELLO because he is the bottom feeder in my claiming contest stable + Noda

race 3
#3 JOY OF PAINTING wtw

race 4
#6 SWEET MELANIA could take it all the way is she returns to her 3yo form. #2 FEEL GLORIOUS will be coming at the finish

race 5
I'll give #6 LETMENO another chance after chasing a runaway winner(who returns later today here) while going longer. What will we see from #7 BASIN after trainer change and a long break? #1 YODEL W A WHO looks to be in serious form.

race 6
Scares me to see Attfield with two separate runners in here since I always include him. Competitive race....you can tell me...

race 7
nice maiden race----probably comes down to obvious favorites #10 CADENCIA off an impressive late effort in last, and Shug's #5 NO ORDINARY TIME who did the same. Plenty of interesting 1sters in here ---#9 AMERICAN HEIRESS(out of nice turfer Keertana), expensive Euro #7 NORTH COUNTRY FAIR, and possibly another Shug runner #11 KIND WAYS(kept by Farish).

race 8
short field where any could win.....#1 LAST JUDGEMENT had it all his way in an easy last win mentioned in race 5 analysis

race 9
Hopefully they won't let #7 SAYYAAF run off on his own again while shortening 1/16. If so....Maybe #11 NOBLE INDY negates both pressing? What is the Toner runner doing in here? I usually play his turfers. #4 SUMMER TO REMEMBER has been running against better and could be close enough to sneak by. #3 BLAMELESS or #8 FIRST PREMIO could close if their riders pay attention.

race 10
Maybe #7 MOON OVER MIAMI gets up in his 2nd 4yo run at the longer distance. #1 CROSS BORDER has the back class to win after freshening.

race 11
#6 ANNEX  will probably be the deserving favorite though I will take a shot with Tagg's #8 STEP DANCER, hoping that he returns ready and better and not prepping for later in NY.

race 12
Pretty weak Oaks and Derby imo. #1 CON LIMA will probably get the action even though she is switching surfaces. Mott's #7 MILLEFEUILLE was pretty disappointing last out while being a buzz runner. I like #2 BOW BOW GIRL to continue improvement and be better than these, with #3 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL getting better also.

race 13
Clement's #5 SORREL is well-connected, was well supported overseas, and could end the barn's cold streak. Pletcher's #9 ALWAYS SHOPPING will be around at the finish as the probable favorite. I like #10 SISTER HANAN to come running late at a good price, with Mott's #1 WAR LIKE GODDESS to appreciate the added ground.

race 14 finally...
Shug's #7 GREATEST HONOUR looks like a Derby threat to me though he will be bet short here. #s aren't the greatest, however he didn't seem hard used last out running past tired frontrunners. Trainer is patient and has his eye on the big prize. #10 SPIELBERG ships in for Baffert's first ever FL Derby try, so you have to assume that he is here to win over a less than stellar field. #5 KNOWN AGENDA has every chance to improve, as well as Mott's NOVA RAGS. Might be value out there if Shug's runner doesn't fire....Plenty of shots to complete this tri...

Good luck!!

[Badactor]

You've got a nice road game, spiderjohn.

Thank you for the write-up from Texas...

good luck to you and best wishes to the bride.

[UpInClass]

SATURDAY ODDS & ENTRIES

[Badactor]

[gam]

A GAM special at GP today. 4 of 6 in the Rainbow and 4 of 5 in the pick 5, missing on two favorites including an even money one in the middle of the sequence (Mott's Annex). Didn't have the Pletcher favorite in the first leg of the Rainbow despite using 5 horses. Oh, well, Two p5 consolations coming back.

[spiderjohn]

Hit $1 7th race tri and $1 late p4
One Dubai tri for $100+ And late p3
Just short of even

What caught my eye and concerns me:
The Ortiz brothers riding in the same race
FL Derby specifically—Irad seemed too comfortable covered up on the rail, and when he was clear, didn’t really urge the fave to go through the gap for the win. He moved a little to get 3rd in a field of minor stakes quality.
This let his brother burst clear, while drifting very wide and back in, guaranteeing this Pletcher runner a spot in Lville.

I have been wondering about this kind of thing after watching them follow one another in many races over time.

Chasing shadows?
Maybe....

Also Shug’s runner didn’t need the win to make the Derby. Could well be just a maintenance race ala Nafzger’s Unbridled last prep—Thunder Gold and a few others. Not all out in order to save the colts’ best effort for the big dance....

Thoughts?

[forego]

Hey Spider,

Irad was on the winner and it's Jose that's been riding GH. My takeaways fwiw...I went back and watched GHs' previous two along with this most recent race. His last two he had been kept to the outside for most of both of those trips. This time Jose took him more inside, pretty much down to the rail and there were a couple of times down the backstretch and into the far turn where he had to ease off the pedal with him. Also, as they were midway(?) through the far turn as the pace quickened, Jose had to work on him to respond, much like he did in his previous race in about the same spot of the race. He really never came off the rail until the top of the stretch and Jose looked to be getting into him pretty good for a response and he really didn't have a lot to offer, was obvious he wasn't getting close to the winner, and as you noted, he didn't need a win or even a second to make the Derby so Jose didn't press him for more on the way in. I also think the rail was definitely not the place to be on Saturday, you needed to be at least two or three wide to have a legitimate shot at the win. Between the (schooling?) trip he was given and not being on the best part of the track, he'll definitely be on my tickets for the Derby.

Forego