|
|
Post by Badactor on Mar 25, 2021 23:26:22 GMT -5
I'm missing Bev's pictures this year. |
|
|
|
Post by Badactor on Mar 25, 2021 23:29:32 GMT -5
Gulfstream Park
Florida Derby
1. Nova Rags 2. Quantum Leap
3. Jirafales
4. Southern Passage
5. Known Agenda
6. Sigiloso
7. Greatest Honour
8. Soup and Sandwich
9. Collaborate
10. Spielberg
11. Papetu
|
|
|
|
Post by Badactor on Mar 27, 2021 11:58:59 GMT -5
i gotta feeling southern passage is the longshot... look out.
However, for the purposes of catching internet search engines...
DELL YOUNT DIRECTED BY SPIELBERG to back the Baffert.
Bing! 
|
|
|
|
Post by Badactor on Mar 27, 2021 12:53:05 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by UpInClass on Mar 27, 2021 18:52:27 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Badactor on Mar 30, 2021 13:52:52 GMT -5
Good stuff... didn't want it to get lost on the main forum. What caught my eye and concerns me:
The Ortiz brothers riding in the same race
FL Derby specifically—Irad seemed too comfortable covered up on the rail,
and when he was clear, didn’t really urge the fave to go through the gap for the win.
He moved a little to get 3rd in a field of minor stakes quality. This let his brother burst clear, while drifting very wide and back in,
guaranteeing this Pletcher runner a spot in Lville.
I have been wondering about this kind of thing after watching them
follow one another in many races over time.
Chasing shadows?
Maybe....
Also Shug’s runner didn’t need the win to make the Derby.
Could well be just a maintenance race ala Nafzger’s Unbridled last prep—Thunder Gold and a few others.
Not all out in order to save the colts’ best effort for the big dance....
Thoughts?
Hey Spider, Irad was on the winner and it's Jose that's been riding GH. My takeaways fwiw...I went back and watched GHs' previous two along with this most recent race. His last two he had been kept to the outside for most of both of those trips. This time Jose took him more inside, pretty much down to the rail and there were a couple of times down the backstretch and into the far turn where he had to ease off the pedal with him. Also, as they were midway(?) through the far turn as the pace quickened, Jose had to work on him to respond, much like he did in his previous race in about the same spot of the race. He really never came off the rail until the top of the stretch and Jose looked to be getting into him pretty good for a response and he really didn't have a lot to offer, was obvious he wasn't getting close to the winner, and as you noted, he didn't need a win or even a second to make the Derby so Jose didn't press him for more on the way in. I also think the rail was definitely not the place to be on Saturday, you needed to be at least two or three wide to have a legitimate shot at the win. Between the (schooling?) trip he was given and not being on the best part of the track, he'll definitely be on my tickets for the Derby. Forego 
|
|
5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,648
|
Post by 5wide on Mar 30, 2021 14:31:27 GMT -5
I agree with this assessment. Greatest Honor wins the derby.
Good stuff... didn't want it to get lost on the main forum.
Also Shug’s runner didn’t need the win to make the Derby.
Could well be just a maintenance race ala Nafzger’s Unbridled last prep—Thunder Gold and a few others.
Not all out in order to save the colts’ best effort for the big dance....
Thoughts?
|
|
|
|
Post by spiderjohn on Mar 30, 2021 17:12:41 GMT -5
OK--thanx for the input!
Yes I switched the brothers, though my concern is the same.
As mentioned, #7 had previously raced on the outside for a clear run, however Saturday he went to the rail to follow the rider's brother for a 1/2 mile+. At no point did #7 look like he was trying to win the race. And he didn't respond much to the stick.
In his last start, his finish was made to look a lot better by the frontrunners collapsing down the stretch. If you break down the starts of Shug's runner, his late pace fractions aren't as impressive as it appears. With the Cox and Baffert favorites still in the mix, I don't think Shug's colt is good enough. Absolutely I could be wrong(as usual).
Also interesting is the head-on of the winner's trip down the lane, drifting way out and back in. Despite the extra real estate of the winner, #7 was losing ground at the wire.
As stated in the chart, #7 might be too one-paced to win the big race, especially if he gets too far back early....
You can have him....
jmo
|
|
forego
UpInClass Member
Posts: 410
|
Post by forego on Mar 30, 2021 19:34:34 GMT -5
Agreed that GH's races have been visually impressive but the numbers are definitely on the light side. He needs to take a major step forward to wear the roses. Interesting little article on DRF where Shug was saying the horse didn't like being down on the inside and he's also going to see how he does with blinkers in working toward the Derby. Mentioned that he wants to try and get Jose up on him for the works leading into the Derby too. He should be more than a fair price after his last.
|
|
|
|
Post by unusualpete on Mar 30, 2021 20:59:19 GMT -5
the atm columnists who publish derby checklists such as former uic poster stan caris are in love w known agenda. sub :37 final 3/8, buckpasser in the x and shit.
i liked and disliked his try. liked how he was fine to be placed wherever the boy asked him to be and how he dominated those he challenged and they deferred. disliked how he was unable to maintain a straight course, a commonplace harbinger for an off try next out. especially cuz the final 70 he was shifting in 4-5 paths towards the stick side. game theory indicated an improved effort was probably coming in the fld a good amount of the time. gonna take the time to watch known agenda's other routes to see if it's a recurring issue. if not, bettor beware.
|
|
|
|
Post by unusualpete on Mar 30, 2021 21:23:48 GMT -5
not an issue in the other routes. head ons indicate he likes to lean against those he challenges regardless of inside or outside of them. the contact seems to embolden him. fld he leaned into soup and sandwich. msw he leaned into greatest honor. to gh's credit he didn't insta give up the way s and s did. runner's a tricky read, but the fact the other head ons were straight and this wasn't i'm inclined to bet against.
|
|
forego
UpInClass Member
Posts: 410
|
Post by forego on Mar 30, 2021 21:43:38 GMT -5
Looked like every left hand Irad hit KA with he shifted out until he was near the middle of the track and when he stopped, he started lugging in (like a lot of horses seem to do once they hit the front), read somewhere the left hands were to keep him away from and off of S&S down the stretch.
|
|
