Post by unusualpete on Mar 19, 2021 12:32:57 GMT -5
feels kinda chaotic after the fav so can't blame you one bit for trying a long shot. you're right to draw a line through the 1's last. gave nothing there, therefore great to see a tab return in 9 days and weekly thereafter w improved am clockings. the problem is your pick needs to find about 6 to 6 1/2 lengths. fair probability he finds some, but not enough. even as spring 3 year olds it's not often they find more than 3 to 4.
tricky shape to the spot. feels like there's a good amount of pace on, but run over a course where pace plays above average, yet still not enough to call it biased. probably want one who can be just a few back early and can pass the gas types, getting first run on the rest.
out of town riders. rosario saez talamo and jrv are in. of the locals, geroux has aces and b. hernandez has 9's. when cox works em like mandaloun is, they tend to run big a lot. and he has the right style to run downhill also. wins a goodly amount. 40ish%. don't post on uic to point out the obvious though.
think the value in the spot is with the 3 run classic. b. hernandez rode a bunch of these and rides this one back. lotta sprint in the ped, but passes the eye test to go long and posts a better try here a goodly amount, second time doing so. 435k auction price for a sprinter? maybe they always felt there's longer things in view. he must fire or he has no chance. needs to find 3 1/2 to 4. they're holding 9's and need to hit their set to win. 10% shot. 12 on the line. minbet at 18. not loading up, but that's where run classic starts earning.
Post by DoctorDisaster on Mar 20, 2021 4:56:21 GMT -5
Cox looks to hold the winning hand with Mandaloun.The ML favorite will most certainly be poor value in the win pool here.Proxy has some appeal for me.I like the fact that JR returns for another crack at the big guy.I don't think he would if he didn't feel some up side.Heck the blinkers ON may have been his idea to Stidham.I would go with the 7/2 ML all day.Might have a chance to fetch that but would take no less than 5/2. WIN 4
Post by unusualpete on Mar 20, 2021 23:09:55 GMT -5
the energy #5 hot rod charlie gave off in the post parade was perfect and he ran to it. i never trust those instincts cuz they've been incorrect a lot. if a big # then i can give into them. at 5/2 i can sit on my hands.
the big fav on the other hand pooped in the parade and i've heard experts say that's a harbinger for a misfire.