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Post by bobtailnag on Mar 5, 2021 12:56:34 GMT -5
The Gotham
3 points to note – 6 of the 8 runners are coming in with just a maiden win. There are 4 speed types, two E8's, one E7 and one E6 (Freedom Fighter was only 2 races and wired one and just missed wiring the second, hence he's really an E8.) and while there is one S type, none of the four none speed types have never faced a hot early pace that we might see Saturday.
Highly Motivated 8/5 is the class of the race having won the Nyquist easily last out. Freedom Fighter 5/2 tried to wire the San Vicente last out but got caught 4 steps from the wire. I have to believe that Mr Baffert has him primed for a good one.
Capo Kane 5/1 made a nice try to wire the Withers last out but ran out of gas a few yards from the wire but held on for the show. That was a 1-1/8th race and this one is a flat mile so you have to take a serious look at him.
Crowded Trade 9/2 broke from the gate last but able to past them all by the time he got to the wire. It was his maiden but class tells all and Chad knows how to train them. If you can be 9/2, I think that would be a good bet.
Last week we saw a $90.00 winner eat our lunches. Upon further revue that filly's previous race had shown some significant improvement – she just didn't look like she belonged there. That being said, The Reds 30/1 just broke his maiden here at a 1-1/8th and was the betting favorite to boot. Mr Kimmel has dismounted the rider that won that race in favor of one that wins 22% of the time and has won 38% of Kimmel's last 8 races. I am not predicting a win here but you might want to at least think he has a shot of hitting the board.
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Post by cherokeescot on Mar 5, 2021 13:58:47 GMT -5
Cheers Bobtail for the nice write up. I agree that Crowded Trade may be the better of the two Brown horses, tomorrow anyway. Baffert was already fully loaded for the San Felipe so no surprise to see Freedom Fighter ship cross country to try and pick up some KFC points just like Spielberg did last week.
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Post by UpInClass on Mar 5, 2021 19:57:50 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 6, 2021 13:43:36 GMT -5
Capo Kane is a 10F++ horse. The problem horses like him run into is that these races are not long enough and they need more ground to get going His jockey hustled him to the front, which is not the right pace for him, so he had no way to keep his speed in abbeyance so that stamina could kick in.......no wonder he ran out of steam in the stretch. I was wincing the whole Withers race. Only thing he did prove is that he has speed and can break well. And could use a different trainer. Gotham will be too short for him. With that sire and broodmare sire he's got stamina coming out of his ears.....there is nobody in the Gotham that interests me at all other than him. None of these others are Derby winners, IMHO, they are prep race horses who do well along the way.
The Reds is one I don't know what will do....that Tapit sire can give you anything in a 1x winner. But his particular female family has won 4 KY Derbies (NORTHERN DANCER NEARCTIC NATALMA 2-d, 1974 CANNONADE BOLD BIDDER QUEEN SUCREE 2-d, 1979 SPECTACULAR BID BOLD BIDDER SPECTACULAR 2-d, 2005 GIACOMO HOLY BULL SET THEM FREE 2-d) so there's something there.
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 957
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Post by ozzy on Mar 6, 2021 16:54:27 GMT -5
Chad Brown exacta for me and give me the longer priced Crowded Trade on top
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 6, 2021 17:27:22 GMT -5
Weyburn takes it at long odds........that PON UNBRIDLED FAPPIANO GANA FACIL line is hard to argue with. So many TC race winnners out of that......then you have all that Bold Ruler stuff on the bottom.
I'm happy about it, actually. The chiefs son, good jockey ride, too. Wish I had him though
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Post by UpInClass on Mar 7, 2021 11:30:43 GMT -5
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