Newbie Wagering Question

[bigred1]

So I am  new horse player. I am coming along with the ins and outs of basic handicapping but I don't know 'wagering' yet. Tomorrow my local track has a race with just 5 horses - here are the current odds:

#4  6/5
#3  5/2
#2  3/1
#5  4/1
#1  20/1

So is this an exacta-favorable race? I have only made straight bets so far - what types of bets - if any - would you make?
Thanks in advance!

[tenfurlongs]

Hi bigred1,

As a very general rule, I don't gravitate toward betting short fields (races with less than six betting interests). There are only so many exacta combinations available (20), so it is hard to find overlays and uncovered wagers. Having said that, any race where you feel that the favorite or especially the top two choices, are vulnerable is worth looking at. Weird things can happen in short fields when typical pace dynamics don't occur.

The race in question is Monmouth R3, the Long Branch S. at 1 1/16mi. on the dirt. Strictly looking at exacta wagers:

the longshot #1- Drummer Don (20-1) is a claiming horse that ships in from Parx, and has a deep closing style of running. It's hard for me to envision a scenario where this horse gets first or second in this race. Pass.

#2- Show Me The Bucks (3-1) is a lightly-raced three year old that shows some promise. He broke his maiden first time out at Gulfstream for Bill Mott, then ran two solid, even fourth place finishes in first-level allowance company. The horse has since changed hands and is now trained by a recently-licensed trainer who has started one horse this year (or maybe ever). The early June workouts are good, so if you like him you are betting on the future potential of this colt, not on what he has done already. Tough call, but I'd side against a win by this horse, but a place effort is certainly possible.

#3- American Lincoln (5-2) is the horse that intrigues me. This colt absolutely woke up when placed on dirt, and especially after the huge win at AQU in March. He was not embarrassed in the Tesio Stakes, and Linda Rice shopped around for an allowance race he could handle. The big win at MTH (against 3yo and up) showed he belongs in spots like this, and don't worry about Joe Bravo getting off the horse. He also rode the 6/5 ML favorite in today's race last time, but gets off of him too. Bravo is out at Arlington Park on Saturday for the rich stakes card out there. Jose Ferrer is a worthy substitute.

#4- Supreme Aura (6-5) won the similar stakes race here on June 17th, but with the same speed figure as American Lincoln, who ran nine races earlier that day at MTH. I'm not completely sold that this horse really wants to go more than 7F or a mile, I think this is a "strike while the iron is hot" situation, running back on three weeks rest. I think American Lincoln will be in front of him throughout the race, and he will have to run him down in the stretch. At 6/5 odds, no way I would take that bet. Can certainly run second.

#5- Navy Commander (4-1) is a Parx shipper with four wins, all at Parx. He seems like another sprinter/miler-type. He will be forwardly placed, probably will inherit the lead if the 2 or 3 don't send from the gate. Normally I'd expect him to fade in the stretch in a stakes race like this, but rationed speed can hold on a long way if not pressed. Doubtful for the win, but another who could hold on for second.

I could bet this as follows: decide that the Favorite is vulnerable, and hope that he finishes outside the top two. I wouldn't make it a prime wager, but an exacta 3/2,5 could return $10-$20. You'd want to check the exacta probables a few minutes before post time, and make the call then, if the returns are equitable.

Probably way more than you wanted to read, but that would be the process that I would go through in deciding if a wager was warranted. Good luck!

[bigred1]

Wow tenfurlongs!!

I want to thank you immensely for this detailed and extremely informative reply...you have provided a ton of 'good scoop' for a newbie and I do appreciate it! 
I look forward to getting involved in the forum and learning...man, SO MUCH to learn.
Again, thanks for taking time to answer my question, and more importantly to me for breaking it down in a detailed and easy-to-understand way.
Take care!

[1hooper]

Just the basics from Jerry Brown.  www.thorograph.com/archive/betting%20guidelines.html
Served me well over the years.
Hooper

[bigred1]

Thanks 1hooper...can't beat having a chart with the basics right there at the fingertips...and I wouldn't dare pretend that I knew all that already!
Take care!

[UpInClass]

Hello bigred1... welcome to UpInClass Horse Racing Forum!

[bigred1]

Thanks, Admin...happy to be aboard!

[tenfurlongs]

Well, the favorite was very vulnerable, faded to fourth place. But what were the other jockeys doing, letting the winner crawl through a 51 2/5 first half mile unmolested? He couldn’t lose after that. To put it in perspective, first-level allowance horses going a mile ran 47 1/5 in that race. Every other dirt route on the card was 1-4 seconds FASTER THAN THE STAKES RACE! It was a textbook example of “weird things can happen in short fields.” Exacta came back $27. Biggest heist since Ocean’s Eleven.

[bigred1]

LOL!! Man, tenfurlongs, you had the 'favorite'in that race pegged like you had a crystal ball! Looking at the vid, it seemed like either the horse or the jockey - or both - just hit that max distance you mentioned and then the fade. I'm glad you schooled me on the short field...lesson learned and ticket money saved for a quality race. Thanks again.