The Queens Plate

[bobtailnag]

Noticed there were 4 or 5 early speed type in the 16 horse field. The only classy types that look like they could take advantage at that are the two fillies - Wonder Gadot and Dixie Moon. There are two loooong shots that might have the where-with-all to make a late run are #9 Say The Word 20/1 and, if you're name is Dell Yount, #6, Real Dude 50/1.   Think I'll do with Dixie Moon and put 5 on Real Dude, just in case he really is a Real Dude. 

[big18741]

Curious if the blinkers on will help or hurt Wonder Gadot.
She hasn't been able to close the deal in her last three races.
Does another furlong help her?

The two fillys do get 5 lbs so I can't toss either one.

Telekinesis the ML favorite is a contender but no better than some of the others.

Prefer #9 Say the Word over Motion's other horse #4 Strike Me Down on distance,pedigree and price(2x the ML)
Seems like any of the other long shots would really have to improve on paper to get into the mix.
Difficult post for #16 Rose's Vision to work out a good trip and the distance might be an issue.


Keying #9 Say the Word with the logical ones(4,7,10,11) in exactas and tri's.

[tc]

Aheadbyacentury...the other one with blinkers 15-1ML
Inge...norm mcknight 30-1ML

[Deleted]

woodbines horseplayernow has a good write up on the race....'i' am lookingat all three of the ramsey / maker horses as long shot plays....they are not in this for fun....real dude is a maiden as is pawnbroker.....silent poet keeps getting in the way....really like him...also there is a mandatory pick 6 payout at churchill worth , at the moment ,sixty four thousand plus....races 7 threw to 12....

[1hooper]

Motion adding a hood over the ears of Strike Me Down to keep him focused today. Sucker for big grey Tapit’s.
Casse says Neepawa is thriving,gaining weight and strength the last two months. New top today? Scat Daddy.
Hooper

[tenfurlongs]

#14- Neepawa (ML 15-1) last three races set him up well for this spot, I believe. The Palm Beach S. was run slow early/fast late and by the time he got rolling the wire came up. In the Cutler Bay S. he middle-moved into a very hot pace (1:09 4/5) in a mile race that was too short for him, but he got a ton of conditioning out of that. The WO Alw was slow early/fast late and he closed well through the stretch. This horse should relish 10 furlongs. Husbands bails for the ML favorite, but Geroux has a good clock in his head, his route-race stats stand out. Post draw is a detriment, but he should be running late if all the speed comes back.

#8- Alternative Route (ML 20-1) interests me here if only because he's trained by Al Stall. No obvious owner connection to Woodbine, so I think the horse is here on its merits. The book on Stall shipping in to Saratoga says deadly with 31-60 layoff/two-turn dirt races, so I can buy into that in this spot. He has to improve, but can hit the board at a big price.

 

[hezethebest]

I just looked this race over and am also in the #14 NEEPAWA camp. I will key off him and #16 ROSE'S VISION while hoping the #7, 9, 10 and/or 11 can complete the gimmick. With DRF not carrying GP (at least up North) on a mandatory payout day, Woodbine and Belmont seem the best time commitment options. Good luck to those playing and let's bring them all back safe.

LL

['gooch]

You guys almost have me convinced with Neepawa. Will box with the two fillies and hope for something other than a complete chalkfest.

Hoop, I don't see any mention of an equipment change for Strike Me Down in the BRIS pps. What am I missing?

[1hooper]

Gooch,yesterday’s Toronto Star.
Hooper

Motion will attempt to calm Strike Me Down on Saturday by having the horse wear a hood.

“We cover their ears to block out some of the sound, that’s a big help,” Motion said. “He tends to get pretty wound up in the post parade and really carries on with his head.

“We’ve found that will help to settle horses sometimes.”

[shoes]

Using Dixie Moon on top with 5,8, and 14 for second or third second in exactas and 2nd and third along with favs 10 and 11 an tris.

Nice close by Santa Monica in the Dance Smartly.

[bobtailnag]

The story of my life - I have 2 women and pick the wrong on!

[tenfurlongs]

So apparently Geroux doesn’t have such a good clock in his head. I understand trying to get over towards the rail from the 14, but going on to press the leader all the way around? What the heck was that? If I’m the owner, I’m wondering why both of my horses are pushing the leader two and three wide in this race. Filly was much the best, but Geroux was NOT!

[bobtailnag]

Going to the rail was also a very bad idea. In the past 6o route races there, BRIS shows a bias of 0.46 which means the horse on the rail wins less than once every 20 races.

[shoes]

Well, my one day of betting Woodbine didn't go so well.