Turf Paradise Race 1 - January 11, 2021
Jan 10, 2021 19:34:53 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2021 19:34:53 GMT -5
My handicapping lately has gotten really superficial and sloppy as I have been trying to play too many tracks and too many races where my handicapping starts 5 minutes to post time..
As a result I was going to inject some disciplne and put together a rundown like this for the Turf Paradise full card for Wednesday or Thursday time permitting (I still do have a day job).
I'm not one of those guys who can quote that a certain trainer is 3 for 8 with chestnut mares on a Tuesday while a south wind was blowing but I think I can help players that are looking for a quick evaluation of the contenders.
Here is a sample for Monday, Race 1 at Turf Paradise. I follow Turf Paradise because (at least in a non pandemic year) there are a lot of Canadian horses that I am familiar with wintering down there.
Constructive feedback is most welcome. Here goes:
Turf Paradise Selections – January 11, 2021
Race 1
The Monday card kicks off in the northern suburbs of Phoenix with a 1 mile test for a field of 6 optional claiming ($16,000) mares.
1. Mongolian Lotus (5/2) – Graydar mare was a little late getting to the races but she has made up for it with 4 wins in 7 lifetime starts. Trainer Justin Evans is an absolute force on the New Mexico circuit. Distance and class are concerns for her today.
2. Tutta Terlingua (8/1) – Been running in New Mexico bred races at shorter distances and her Beyers aren’t competitive with this group. She is a rallying sprinter and I don’t like this type stretching out.
3. Miss Perfecta (2/1) – 5 YO mare has really blossomed since taking to the turf. Today’s race is on dirt but her effort on the TuP dirt on March 20 would win this. Off since September at Canterbury but she ran well last year off a similar layoff. Beyers stand above this field but most were earned on the lawn.
Likes to be on the front end.
4. Splashing (3/1) - Ships in from California with extensive turf and synthetic form. 3 for 11 at the distance and 1 for 8 on dirt, she has a nice stalking style and always delivers her rally. Comes out of a tough starter allowance at LRC. Her lone dirt win was her maiden breaker at Pleasanton in 2018.
5. Aries (10/1) – Recent claim for Kristin Mulhall shows up in Phoenix after a lackluster effort at 2/1 at LRC. Mare has lots of stops and starts in her PP’s which makes me question her soundness. Recent Beyers aren’t competitive but she has run some races further back that would be tough here.
6. Semi Sweet (4/1) – Mile specialist ships in from Emerald. 2 for 3 over the local oval she is another one that wants to rally and she gives her best each time. Time off since September not a concern as she won first out at Emerald this year off a similar layoff.
Selections
4 - 6- 3
Hoping that the inside two mares coming out of the sprints will have enough speed to push Miss Perfecta along setting up the race for the 2 consistent closers. Tough spot though.
As a result I was going to inject some disciplne and put together a rundown like this for the Turf Paradise full card for Wednesday or Thursday time permitting (I still do have a day job).
I'm not one of those guys who can quote that a certain trainer is 3 for 8 with chestnut mares on a Tuesday while a south wind was blowing but I think I can help players that are looking for a quick evaluation of the contenders.
Here is a sample for Monday, Race 1 at Turf Paradise. I follow Turf Paradise because (at least in a non pandemic year) there are a lot of Canadian horses that I am familiar with wintering down there.
Constructive feedback is most welcome. Here goes:
Turf Paradise Selections – January 11, 2021
Race 1
The Monday card kicks off in the northern suburbs of Phoenix with a 1 mile test for a field of 6 optional claiming ($16,000) mares.
1. Mongolian Lotus (5/2) – Graydar mare was a little late getting to the races but she has made up for it with 4 wins in 7 lifetime starts. Trainer Justin Evans is an absolute force on the New Mexico circuit. Distance and class are concerns for her today.
2. Tutta Terlingua (8/1) – Been running in New Mexico bred races at shorter distances and her Beyers aren’t competitive with this group. She is a rallying sprinter and I don’t like this type stretching out.
3. Miss Perfecta (2/1) – 5 YO mare has really blossomed since taking to the turf. Today’s race is on dirt but her effort on the TuP dirt on March 20 would win this. Off since September at Canterbury but she ran well last year off a similar layoff. Beyers stand above this field but most were earned on the lawn.
Likes to be on the front end.
4. Splashing (3/1) - Ships in from California with extensive turf and synthetic form. 3 for 11 at the distance and 1 for 8 on dirt, she has a nice stalking style and always delivers her rally. Comes out of a tough starter allowance at LRC. Her lone dirt win was her maiden breaker at Pleasanton in 2018.
5. Aries (10/1) – Recent claim for Kristin Mulhall shows up in Phoenix after a lackluster effort at 2/1 at LRC. Mare has lots of stops and starts in her PP’s which makes me question her soundness. Recent Beyers aren’t competitive but she has run some races further back that would be tough here.
6. Semi Sweet (4/1) – Mile specialist ships in from Emerald. 2 for 3 over the local oval she is another one that wants to rally and she gives her best each time. Time off since September not a concern as she won first out at Emerald this year off a similar layoff.
Selections
4 - 6- 3
Hoping that the inside two mares coming out of the sprints will have enough speed to push Miss Perfecta along setting up the race for the 2 consistent closers. Tough spot though.
