Some Saturday thoughts for the first half of the card
Race 1: Nashville might be a freak. EDIT might be to IS a freak. Track appears extremely fast with that performance.
Race 2: Strike That/Engage
Race 3: Miss T Too over Highly Motivated
F&M Sprint: Lots of speed so I’m going for a closer. Against Gamine, might include Serengeti Empress because she is just game as hell and could duel and still be around at the end. Bell’s The One for me with possibly Speech/Sconsin but will hedge with the Empress.
Turf Sprint: Against the favorites in Leinster with a small vet issue, Imprimis who I’ve just never bet, and Got Stormy who I think is against it here as she’s not a Turf sprinter against this quality. All in on Oleksandra here as have been waiting for her to run back since the Japiur. Will use Golden Slippers in the exacta who chased a freak in Europe and gets first time lasixand Just Might who just might go to the lead and forget to stop.
Dirt Mile: No strong thoughts except against Complexity here. Will side with Go Knicks Go over Rushie as some 3YO typically steps up big in this race, and Owendale late.
Obviously we use some of the same data....worked very well yesterday
2nd--I also like #1 ENGAGE---also giving #9 EBBEN a shot in here for Margolis(he fires in ky). crazy 1-8-9-10-112 tri box to start the day
3rd--Like #1 AINT NO ELMERS and #10 MOTIVATED SELLER. Mott's #5 MISS T TOO can't be ignored. tri PW 1-5-10/1-4-5-7-10/all(love all for 3rd--gives you payoffs that you would never handicap--ergo yesterday's 5th)
4th--#7 SERENGETTI EMPRESS to win the pace battle, saving with #5 SCONSIN. tri PW 5-7-9/1-5-7-9/all
5th--#8 OLEKSANDRA will probably go off favorite, but must be used. Other shots are #6 GLASS SLIPPERS if she gets running in time vs a US turf sprint pace, and #12 GOT STORMY who has fallen out of favor. Not a race where I go heavy.
6th--#5 KNICKS GO is the big talk and will also be bet in half. Sets it up for #4 WAR OF WILL imo, who has the class edge. #12 OWENDALE is the other that I can see on top.
wow—assumed 11:30 first post—duh—turned it on just in time to bet the 3rd and lost the tri at the wire.
——————— 7th——gets tough from here——like #14 CAYENNE PEPPER off of her last, if Foley can adjust to US style racing. Not so well yesterday.....Also like Euro #7 TEREBELLUM.
8th—maybe upset time with #1 ECHO TOWN closing late to nail his stablemate. CZ ROCKET also.
9th—#1 CIRCUS MAXIMUS should like the going, and hopefully will settle inside under the patient Ryan Moore. #2 KAMEKO comes over for Balding and Murphy. #8 MARCH TO THE ARCH is my impossible long shot to finish best and crash the tri.
10th—#4 HOROLOGIST in a shocker—if not, #10 MONOMOY GIRL or #5 SWISS SKYDIVER
11th—Staying Euro with #3 TARNAWA and #5 LORD NORTH should be much better than these. Beginning to worry that the turf is too dry, and the tight left turns stymie the Euro runners and newer riders. Don’t see Mandella around here often, so you might think that #7 UNITED is well-meant. Have always dissed #10 MOGUL, so I have to put him on top with something if not over-valued.
12th—#4 TOMS DETAT usually bears me by many lengths,is a better value today, and is my top play. #3 BY MY STANDARDS gets a big shot from me. #8 IMPROBABLE seems to be in top form, and Baffert has won two races already today.
————- No GAMINE anywhere for me—no luck so far.....
Last Edit: Nov 7, 2020 12:21:02 GMT -5 by spiderjohn
Absolutely true red board—-had $14 left in my race budget so wheeled her in the exacta——$417–unreal—-live with 3-4-6-7-9-14 to end p3 Saving win in 7th 2-10-11-12 Plus what was posted in the other thread Turning back the right way again?
BC races and race day are the spots where it is very difficult to score when not spreading somewhere imo...
After first half of the card I walked away for a bit and just bet what I had written down and tried not to get cute. It paid off as bet the Pick 3 starting in Turf Sprint and not much else until F&M Turf. Red boarding but boxed 3 there including the winner and Rushing Fall and paid off with a nice exacta and hit Pick 3 and doubles to regroup and build a bit of confidence for rest of card
Treaded lightly in the Sprint and glad I did as had nothing with Whitmore bit did exclude Youpon. I was on Diamond Oops and Collusion Illusion who received a curious ride but was really just rooting for Hog Creek who ran well enough.
Post by mysaladdays on Nov 7, 2020 14:53:46 GMT -5
Race 9 Turf I like Ivar and Raging Bull. Safe Voyage, Siskin, March to the Arch for longshots/lower exotics.
R10, can Castellano bring in another longshot for Weaver? Rooting for Point of Honor to hit the board
BCC going to put a little $ on Global Campaign across the board. Love that long router body. I think we can count on good 'ol Tacitus to hit the board, he always does. Winner is Max or Global, IMHO. They're all very good horses and this is a hard one to figure.
Headed to the Mile and I am all in on Digital Age. If he doesn’t win, I probably go down in flames for the day. Kameko definitely class at a mile and using Uni and Factor This underneath. Lots like Hallady but he missed a start in the Shadwell with a foot issue and I just can’t use. I didn’t bet Ivar last put and won’t here today either. Off Raging Bull as have bet him consistently and he just doesn’t like to win so he probably airs today.
All Monomoy Girl in the Distaff and could see a Beholder/Songbird type run in this one but trying to split with Ollie’s Candy who I think will rebound here. Interested in Horologist too but haven’t decided how to wager this one.
In the Turf I am all Tarnawa and will use Arklow under. Looked at the Gosden mare but figured Frankie had his choice and went with Lord Noeth so I probably will too. Trying to decide if to use United or not who made my Saturday last year at huge odds. Against Magical as AOB’s just do not seem to be firing at their best
In the Classic, well of Whitmore can win at 7, I guess my pick of Tom’s D’Etat looks better. Improbable and Authentic figure but will try to get some bomb like Title Ready or Tacitus in the tri.
What was not to like, first time lasix, Euro on turf, Aidan Obrien......so i splurged and put $5 wp on Order of Australia......thank goodness for random dumb luck. Didnt help as i did not have him on my Exactas or pick 4......
Post by mysaladdays on Nov 7, 2020 15:51:53 GMT -5
I don't like Tiz for the Classic. Winner would seem to come from tom,max,global, or improbable
Not playing the race but winner comes from those 4. Just using a formula involving mare side DI and zenyatta, blame and others all fell w/in a certain range. Tiz is outside that range but of course there's always a first time for everything, about 4 horses have done it in the history of the BCC. Why not use a unique handicapping method when you have such a strong field in terms of track performance, using the latter makes it too hard to separate.
Are no mistake, the real winner today is Longines for all the pub they are getting showing the times on the dirt over a souped up surface today....
Yes Lauren Stitch commented on that, if you saw on FB:
"With three new track records today, it's official. Keeneland has joined the ugly ranks of major-league racetracks that decide to scrape their surfaces on big race days, like the Breeders' Cup.
By making their track ridiculously speed-favoring, it skewers all results in dirt races and sadly questions the validity of the winners.
Of the many ills that Thoroughbred racing faces these days, "suping" the track surfaces to get fast times has got to stop or the integrity of the game will be lost. Keeneland -- you have done a great disservice to our great sport and you should be ashamed of yourself."