BC Classic
Nov 6, 2020 10:16:05 GMT -5
Post by elkurzhal on Nov 6, 2020 10:16:05 GMT -5
didn't see a thread for the big one...
very odd Classic IMO - pretty much all of them have some serious questions to answer IMO.
Taticus - headcase is an OK horse, has never run a TG fig that you would think it would take to win this, and seems to be trailing off. Mott's recent (since Cigar?) history in the BC dirt races is brutal. serious money burner. guessing he is much more interested in the big NY races and points to them.
Tiz - really hasn't done anything wrong, but his best figs were at GP earlier this year, very concerning he didn't get back to that level last time. connex seem to hate the inside more than the horse, likely they muck up a ground saving trip giving some dumb instructions to get him outside.
By My Standards - seems a cut below, did run one good one at 9f two back, but really seems like a shorter distance horse. They should have cut back to the mile and won vs running out of gas here.
Tom's - serious wizeguy horse - but they have ducked a ton of 10f races, and had to give him a lot of time off after the last race. has run will fresh, but he hasn't been working that great and I think he needs a race. wouldn't be shocked if he runs on OK race, then wins the Pegasus or DWC.
Tilte Ready - another that should have gone to the mile. isn't fast enough and doesn't seems like little prospect of running any better going way longer than pedigree would suggest is ideal.
Higher Power - has run a few really good figs, good enough to win here. seems content to run around behind horses though. Wish he was a more type A personality. Training on fire in the AM. I would be surprised if he won, but not at all if he was 2nd/3rd
Global Campaign - really moved forward on TG in his first start this year, bounced a little, paired up then a small new top last time. very forward moving line and serious 10f pedigree. Would need to make up 6-8 lengths if a couple other are on their A game (which I don't think happens) will be completely ignored at the windows and has a real shot to win. Interesting that winstar owns both him and improbable. hoping they don't send hard to try to cook Authentic and setup improbable.
Improbable - probably the best horse, maybe a little better at 9f vs 10, but has won at 10. drifted in last time and seems to be funky about changing leads in the AM works. a little nervous something is bothering him. really tough to string together 4 going on 5 figs in the -2/-3 range. have to use, but really bad value as the favorite. IMO
Authentic - huge 3 point top to a -3 last time, 3 year olds off -2 or lower TG figs in the BC are terrible bets, they run poorly at a really high rate. that said he could bounce to a 0 and with a 1 wide 1 wide trip be pretty tough to run down. proven at 10f
Max - The transplanted horse from the fed bust have been great play againsts all summer. Max has been a cut below his previous self and the last was really bad. he is proven at the distance. he isn't really a "baffert" horse, seems like it would be best for Bob if he didn't win given the history of Max and Bob's recent problems. probably takes the worst of the tactical instructions from the barn's 3.
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Conclusion - Winstar wins, but Baffert doesn't.
67/67/all
67/all/67
all/67/67
very odd Classic IMO - pretty much all of them have some serious questions to answer IMO.
Taticus - headcase is an OK horse, has never run a TG fig that you would think it would take to win this, and seems to be trailing off. Mott's recent (since Cigar?) history in the BC dirt races is brutal. serious money burner. guessing he is much more interested in the big NY races and points to them.
Tiz - really hasn't done anything wrong, but his best figs were at GP earlier this year, very concerning he didn't get back to that level last time. connex seem to hate the inside more than the horse, likely they muck up a ground saving trip giving some dumb instructions to get him outside.
By My Standards - seems a cut below, did run one good one at 9f two back, but really seems like a shorter distance horse. They should have cut back to the mile and won vs running out of gas here.
Tom's - serious wizeguy horse - but they have ducked a ton of 10f races, and had to give him a lot of time off after the last race. has run will fresh, but he hasn't been working that great and I think he needs a race. wouldn't be shocked if he runs on OK race, then wins the Pegasus or DWC.
Tilte Ready - another that should have gone to the mile. isn't fast enough and doesn't seems like little prospect of running any better going way longer than pedigree would suggest is ideal.
Higher Power - has run a few really good figs, good enough to win here. seems content to run around behind horses though. Wish he was a more type A personality. Training on fire in the AM. I would be surprised if he won, but not at all if he was 2nd/3rd
Global Campaign - really moved forward on TG in his first start this year, bounced a little, paired up then a small new top last time. very forward moving line and serious 10f pedigree. Would need to make up 6-8 lengths if a couple other are on their A game (which I don't think happens) will be completely ignored at the windows and has a real shot to win. Interesting that winstar owns both him and improbable. hoping they don't send hard to try to cook Authentic and setup improbable.
Improbable - probably the best horse, maybe a little better at 9f vs 10, but has won at 10. drifted in last time and seems to be funky about changing leads in the AM works. a little nervous something is bothering him. really tough to string together 4 going on 5 figs in the -2/-3 range. have to use, but really bad value as the favorite. IMO
Authentic - huge 3 point top to a -3 last time, 3 year olds off -2 or lower TG figs in the BC are terrible bets, they run poorly at a really high rate. that said he could bounce to a 0 and with a 1 wide 1 wide trip be pretty tough to run down. proven at 10f
Max - The transplanted horse from the fed bust have been great play againsts all summer. Max has been a cut below his previous self and the last was really bad. he is proven at the distance. he isn't really a "baffert" horse, seems like it would be best for Bob if he didn't win given the history of Max and Bob's recent problems. probably takes the worst of the tactical instructions from the barn's 3.
------------------
Conclusion - Winstar wins, but Baffert doesn't.
67/67/all
67/all/67
all/67/67
