LARRY'S PICKS for the Breeders' Cup (Saturday card)!
Nov 4, 2020 21:20:55 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Nov 4, 2020 21:20:55 GMT -5
Analysis of the “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS”, racings’ $28,000,000.00 weekend! Expanded to 2 days in 2007, this edition of LARRY’S PICKS will analyze the Saturday menu with 9 events contested at varying distances over both dirt and turf. The 9 Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland today will begin with the 4th race.
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile, or even the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 that I gave out just last November in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile but I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
4 FOURTH RACE (12:02 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I)
7 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(9) BELL’S THE ONE earned her first Grade I victory last out at this distance closing into a hot pace. She is drawn well to track what should be an honest pace herein and she could post the slight upset. (2) GAMINE is one of several speeds signed on and Velazquez will have to send her from this inside draw. The 2 time Grade I winner turns back from 9 furlongs and is strictly the horse to beat. (7) SERENGETI EMPRESS is another 2 time Grade I winner possessing a swift first gear. She lost by a nose to my top pick last out and she could be right there with a good trip. (4) INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ stretches out to this distance for the first time seeking her 4th straight win. She needs to take another step forward to better this rating.
5 FIFTH RACE (12:39 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(8) OLEKSANDRA makes her first start since June with a consistent record of running well when "fresh"! In a race that should have an honest if not contested pace she could be running on best through the lane at a decent price. (6) GLASS SLIPPERS ships from France where she is a 2 time Group I winner. With 7 exacta finishes in 8 races at this distance she is a must use in exotics. (7) LEINSTAR is the veritable "horse for the course" and she also excels at this short sprint distance. She could take all following a good stalking trip.
6 SIXTH RACE (1:18 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile (Gr. I)
1Mile on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(10) COMPLEXITY exits a wire to wire win in the Grade II Kelso last out and he is a perfect 3 for 3 at this distance. There is other speed signed on but if he can avoid a duel a repeat "Kodak Moment" is likely. (2) SHARP SAMURAI goes "turf to dirt" while shipping in from the West Coast. While he broke his maiden at this distance on dirt back in 2017 he has mostly run on turf since. He has run some fast times at the distance on that surface and if he can transfer his form to the dirt he could garner a major share from a stalking posture. (12) OWENDALE is a perfect 2 for 2 at this distance and he might get a favorable pace scenario to close into. (6) MR. MONEY draws in from the "also eligible" list following a Grade III win at Churchill. The 4 year old by GOLDENSCENTS has strung victories together before and he could go well!
7 SEVENTH RACE (1:57 P.M. EST)
Maker’s Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I)
1 3/16th Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(4) MEAN MARY lost a 4 race winning streak when collared in the shadow of the wire last out in the Grade I Diana Stakes. She faces the runner that beat her that day as well as many other formidable foes but she could be the lone speed herein. I look for Luis Saez to control a measured pace and go “wire to wire”! (6) RUSHING FALL is a 6 time Grade I winner including the aforementioned Diana Stakes last out. She is a deserving post time favorite and strictly the horse to beat. (1) STARSHIP JUBILEE won her 2nd lifetime Grade I stakes when capturing the Woodbine Mile last out and she should get a great stalking trip enroute to a share from her hedge post draw.
6 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(3) COLLUSION ILLUSION is an improving 3 year old with a stalking style that should play well in this speed laden field. In a very competitive affair I will take a shot at possibly the biggest mutuel price on the card! (6) FRANK’S ROCKETTE is the lone filly in the field and she has run to her superb breeding for this distance and has never been out of the exacta. If Junior Alvarado can avoid a speed duel she could take all! (8) FIRENZE FIRE has banked over $2,000,000.00 and at age 5 can still fire a good effort at times. I look for Jose Lezcano to try to settle him midpack and hope for a “stalk and pounce” type journey. (10) YAUPON is a perfect 4 for 4, all at this distance and it would not be a surprise if he won again. (13) JASPER PRINCE is an interesting shipper from Japan where he has been on a steady diet of Stakes races involving large fields. Contention goes deep!
9 NINTH RACE (3:15 P.M. EST)
FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(9) ONE MASTER is a 6 year old mare who owns 3 Group I victories but none at this distance. A “master” at 7 furlongs she comes up short without being embarrassed when trying to go a furlong further. She ran 5th in the BC Mile in 2018 at Churchill but was only beaten 1 length for all the money. I like the 6 furlong Group I prep race the connections chose before shipping, a race where she finished well for 3rd, beaten ½ length. Pierre-Charles Boudot comes stateside to keep the mount and he knows her well. In a race that always comes down to trips, I can see her settling midpack and searching for a seam to close through when the serious running begins. Hoping she joins the trio of previous high priced BC Mile winners that occupy my bio page, I will make her the 2020 “Upset Special”, courtesy of LARRY’S PICKS! (11) IVAR is a lightly raced 4 year old who has done little wrong in a 7 race career. He exits a smart come from behind win in the Grade I Shadwell Mile over this track and distance and he could be formidable right back! (2) KAMEKO ships from Great Britain for solid connections and he could go well from his inside draw. (12) UNI is the defending champ in this event and with 8 wins at this distance she will likely give a good account of herself if she can overcome the wide draw. (1) CIRCUS MAXIMUS should show good speed from his hedge draw and he has the back class to gain a share.
10 TENTH RACE (3:54 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I)
1 1/8th Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(10) MONOMOY GIRL remarkably seeks her 11th straight victory dating back to February 2018. The winner of this race that year, she owns 7 Grade I victories on her way to banking nearly 3 ½ million dollars. Drawn wide she will likely assume a stalking posture and she could prevail again for strong connections. (2) HARVEST MOON sports an ascending speed figure pattern while stretching out to a distance that should be right in her wheelhouse! She may pose the biggest threat to my top choice. (5) SWISS SKYDIVER upset the colts in the Grade I Preakness Stakes last out and chooses to join her own kind rather than tackle the Classic field today. Robby Albarado should have options depending on how they leave the gate and the bargain basement $35K purchase would not be a surprise here. (7) POINT OF HONOR has never been out of the money in 4 tries at this distance and closed strongly against the grain for 2nd last out in the Grade II Beldame Invitational. Look for her late, if at all!
11 ELEVENTH RACE (4:33 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I)
1 ½ Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $4,000,000.00
(6) LORD NORTH may not have cared for the soft turf last out at Ascot and he may rebound in a big way over the projected “firm” conditions today. Look for him to be forwardly placed throughout and pull off the mild upset. (2) MAGICAL owns 6 Group I victories and just missed in this event 2 years back at Churchill Downs. The beaten favorite last out while lacking room appears the major threat to my top pick. (7) UNITED nearly exploded the tote board when 2nd by a head in this event last year to the formidable BRICKS AND MORTAR. I would expect him to assume the pace duties and he will have to be caught as they enter the stretch. (10) MOGUL is a 3 year old who gained his first Group I victory last out in the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris. He will need to take another step forward but may very well do so.
12 TWELFTH RACE (5:18 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I)
1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $6,000,000.00
(4) TOM’S D’ETAT lost all chance when he stumbled out of the gate in the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga last out. The 3 prime speed types herein drew wide and I sense Rosario might be poised for a decent ground saving trip just off their pace. If a pace battle ensues he could be in line for a “stalk and pounce” type journey at a bit of a price! (2) TIZ THE LAW is a 4 time Grade I winner who could not reel in AUTHENTIC last out as the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Both lifetime losses occurred at Churchill Downs and while one shouldn’t have to take his racetrack with him, not all horses warm up to the main track surface there. He could easily rebound and win this on class alone. (8) IMPROBABLE has beaten several of these enroute to 3 straight Grade I wins. A winner of half of his 14 starts he could be formidable from a stalking posture. (10) MAXIMUM SECURITY needs no introduction as the DQ’d “winner” of the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Despite that setback he has 5 Grade I victories on the resume and he has actually finished in front of 95 of the 97 runners he has ever faced! He should be part of the speed scene from his outside draw and he could surely better this rating.
LL
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile, or even the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 that I gave out just last November in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile but I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
4 FOURTH RACE (12:02 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I)
7 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(9) BELL’S THE ONE earned her first Grade I victory last out at this distance closing into a hot pace. She is drawn well to track what should be an honest pace herein and she could post the slight upset. (2) GAMINE is one of several speeds signed on and Velazquez will have to send her from this inside draw. The 2 time Grade I winner turns back from 9 furlongs and is strictly the horse to beat. (7) SERENGETI EMPRESS is another 2 time Grade I winner possessing a swift first gear. She lost by a nose to my top pick last out and she could be right there with a good trip. (4) INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ stretches out to this distance for the first time seeking her 4th straight win. She needs to take another step forward to better this rating.
5 FIFTH RACE (12:39 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(8) OLEKSANDRA makes her first start since June with a consistent record of running well when "fresh"! In a race that should have an honest if not contested pace she could be running on best through the lane at a decent price. (6) GLASS SLIPPERS ships from France where she is a 2 time Group I winner. With 7 exacta finishes in 8 races at this distance she is a must use in exotics. (7) LEINSTAR is the veritable "horse for the course" and she also excels at this short sprint distance. She could take all following a good stalking trip.
6 SIXTH RACE (1:18 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile (Gr. I)
1Mile on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(10) COMPLEXITY exits a wire to wire win in the Grade II Kelso last out and he is a perfect 3 for 3 at this distance. There is other speed signed on but if he can avoid a duel a repeat "Kodak Moment" is likely. (2) SHARP SAMURAI goes "turf to dirt" while shipping in from the West Coast. While he broke his maiden at this distance on dirt back in 2017 he has mostly run on turf since. He has run some fast times at the distance on that surface and if he can transfer his form to the dirt he could garner a major share from a stalking posture. (12) OWENDALE is a perfect 2 for 2 at this distance and he might get a favorable pace scenario to close into. (6) MR. MONEY draws in from the "also eligible" list following a Grade III win at Churchill. The 4 year old by GOLDENSCENTS has strung victories together before and he could go well!
7 SEVENTH RACE (1:57 P.M. EST)
Maker’s Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I)
1 3/16th Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(4) MEAN MARY lost a 4 race winning streak when collared in the shadow of the wire last out in the Grade I Diana Stakes. She faces the runner that beat her that day as well as many other formidable foes but she could be the lone speed herein. I look for Luis Saez to control a measured pace and go “wire to wire”! (6) RUSHING FALL is a 6 time Grade I winner including the aforementioned Diana Stakes last out. She is a deserving post time favorite and strictly the horse to beat. (1) STARSHIP JUBILEE won her 2nd lifetime Grade I stakes when capturing the Woodbine Mile last out and she should get a great stalking trip enroute to a share from her hedge post draw.
8 EIGHTH RACE (2:36 P.M. EST)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I)6 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(3) COLLUSION ILLUSION is an improving 3 year old with a stalking style that should play well in this speed laden field. In a very competitive affair I will take a shot at possibly the biggest mutuel price on the card! (6) FRANK’S ROCKETTE is the lone filly in the field and she has run to her superb breeding for this distance and has never been out of the exacta. If Junior Alvarado can avoid a speed duel she could take all! (8) FIRENZE FIRE has banked over $2,000,000.00 and at age 5 can still fire a good effort at times. I look for Jose Lezcano to try to settle him midpack and hope for a “stalk and pounce” type journey. (10) YAUPON is a perfect 4 for 4, all at this distance and it would not be a surprise if he won again. (13) JASPER PRINCE is an interesting shipper from Japan where he has been on a steady diet of Stakes races involving large fields. Contention goes deep!
9 NINTH RACE (3:15 P.M. EST)
FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(9) ONE MASTER is a 6 year old mare who owns 3 Group I victories but none at this distance. A “master” at 7 furlongs she comes up short without being embarrassed when trying to go a furlong further. She ran 5th in the BC Mile in 2018 at Churchill but was only beaten 1 length for all the money. I like the 6 furlong Group I prep race the connections chose before shipping, a race where she finished well for 3rd, beaten ½ length. Pierre-Charles Boudot comes stateside to keep the mount and he knows her well. In a race that always comes down to trips, I can see her settling midpack and searching for a seam to close through when the serious running begins. Hoping she joins the trio of previous high priced BC Mile winners that occupy my bio page, I will make her the 2020 “Upset Special”, courtesy of LARRY’S PICKS! (11) IVAR is a lightly raced 4 year old who has done little wrong in a 7 race career. He exits a smart come from behind win in the Grade I Shadwell Mile over this track and distance and he could be formidable right back! (2) KAMEKO ships from Great Britain for solid connections and he could go well from his inside draw. (12) UNI is the defending champ in this event and with 8 wins at this distance she will likely give a good account of herself if she can overcome the wide draw. (1) CIRCUS MAXIMUS should show good speed from his hedge draw and he has the back class to gain a share.
10 TENTH RACE (3:54 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I)
1 1/8th Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(10) MONOMOY GIRL remarkably seeks her 11th straight victory dating back to February 2018. The winner of this race that year, she owns 7 Grade I victories on her way to banking nearly 3 ½ million dollars. Drawn wide she will likely assume a stalking posture and she could prevail again for strong connections. (2) HARVEST MOON sports an ascending speed figure pattern while stretching out to a distance that should be right in her wheelhouse! She may pose the biggest threat to my top choice. (5) SWISS SKYDIVER upset the colts in the Grade I Preakness Stakes last out and chooses to join her own kind rather than tackle the Classic field today. Robby Albarado should have options depending on how they leave the gate and the bargain basement $35K purchase would not be a surprise here. (7) POINT OF HONOR has never been out of the money in 4 tries at this distance and closed strongly against the grain for 2nd last out in the Grade II Beldame Invitational. Look for her late, if at all!
11 ELEVENTH RACE (4:33 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I)
1 ½ Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $4,000,000.00
(6) LORD NORTH may not have cared for the soft turf last out at Ascot and he may rebound in a big way over the projected “firm” conditions today. Look for him to be forwardly placed throughout and pull off the mild upset. (2) MAGICAL owns 6 Group I victories and just missed in this event 2 years back at Churchill Downs. The beaten favorite last out while lacking room appears the major threat to my top pick. (7) UNITED nearly exploded the tote board when 2nd by a head in this event last year to the formidable BRICKS AND MORTAR. I would expect him to assume the pace duties and he will have to be caught as they enter the stretch. (10) MOGUL is a 3 year old who gained his first Group I victory last out in the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris. He will need to take another step forward but may very well do so.
12 TWELFTH RACE (5:18 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I)
1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $6,000,000.00
(4) TOM’S D’ETAT lost all chance when he stumbled out of the gate in the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga last out. The 3 prime speed types herein drew wide and I sense Rosario might be poised for a decent ground saving trip just off their pace. If a pace battle ensues he could be in line for a “stalk and pounce” type journey at a bit of a price! (2) TIZ THE LAW is a 4 time Grade I winner who could not reel in AUTHENTIC last out as the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby. Both lifetime losses occurred at Churchill Downs and while one shouldn’t have to take his racetrack with him, not all horses warm up to the main track surface there. He could easily rebound and win this on class alone. (8) IMPROBABLE has beaten several of these enroute to 3 straight Grade I wins. A winner of half of his 14 starts he could be formidable from a stalking posture. (10) MAXIMUM SECURITY needs no introduction as the DQ’d “winner” of the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Despite that setback he has 5 Grade I victories on the resume and he has actually finished in front of 95 of the 97 runners he has ever faced! He should be part of the speed scene from his outside draw and he could surely better this rating.
LL
