LARRY'S PICKS for the Breeders' Cup (Friday card)!
Nov 3, 2020 20:55:56 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Nov 3, 2020 20:55:56 GMT -5
Analysis of the 2020 “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS”, racings’ $28,000,000.00 weekend! Expanded to 2 days in 2007, this edition of LARRY’S PICKS will analyze the Friday menu with 5 events contested at varying distances over both dirt and turf. The Juveniles take center stage today hoping to prove that they will be the “stars of the future”! The 5 Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland today will begin with the 6th race.
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile, or even the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 that I gave out just last November in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile but I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
6 SIXTH RACE (2:30 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(5) COWAN has endured a couple of troubled trips in his 4 lifetime starts including drawing the rail in 3 of those. Having 2 spectacular works here at Keeneland since his last start, I suspect the connections feel good about his draw today as it should help facilitate carving out a decent “stalking” trip. Look for Santana to settle just off the ample speed signed on and he could prevail in the opener, which is indeed a wide open affair! (10) BODENHEIMER has 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts, all on the “engine”. He should meet more of an early challenge in this heat but he still merits respect. (14) GOLDEN PAL also has keen speed and he will need it to overcome his wide draw. Stabled here at Keeneland since early September he has worked well and could take all with an alert start and clean trip. (9) AFTER FIVE was the beaten favorite last out in the Grade III Futurity after his 2nd straight troubled start. Still a maiden, the connections keep the faith and a move forward is not beyond the realm of possibility. (13) SECOND OF JULY has outrun his odds in 2 straight and is the likeliest late threat should a contested pace battle ensue.
7 SEVENTH RACE (3:10 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Presented By Coolmore America (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(11) GRETZKY THE GREAT exits a victory in the Grade I Summer Stakes at Woodbine. With 2 A.M. “bullets” in the holster, this colt by NYQUIST seeks his 4th straight victory for trainer Mark Casse. Tyler Gaffalione will climb aboard for the first time and he could prove best in a real scramble. (2) NEW MANDATE ships from Newmarket also seeking his 4th in a row. Frankie Dettori knows the gelding well and will tag along for the ride. A duplication of the Timeform speed rating produced 2 back would put him squarely in the mix at a decent price. (1) SEALIWAY joins my top pick as the only 2 runners with a Group I win on the resume. This Longchamp shipper sports an enviable record in 6 lifetime starts but will need to prove he wants to stretch out beyond a long sprint distance. (3) ABARTA should put in a strong late run assuming an honest pace scenario and he could garner a share at a huge price! (8) OUTADORE is a lightly raced trainee from Wesley Ward who could better this rating beneath Jose Ortiz.
8 EIGHTH RACE (3:50 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds Fillies. Purse $2,000,000.00
(3) DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE is perfectly drawn down inside which should enable Junior Alvarado to either control the pace or sit just off it as he sees the race unfold. 3 for 3 lifetime, this filly by INTO MISCHIEF commands respect. (2) VEQUIST ran 2nd to my top choice last out as the beaten favorite and she could do so again with Joel Rosario climbing aboard for the first time. (1) SIMPLY RAVISHING was victorious in the Grade I Alcibiades last out over this track and distance. Luis Saez bails on VEQUIST to retain the mount for trainer Ken McPeek and she could take all if left alone on the lead! (7) PRINCESS NOOR cost a mere $1,350,000 and while she has paid immediate dividends at 3 for 3 lifetime, her connections hope she can improve on the mediocre speed figures she has produced to date.
9 NINTH RACE (4:30 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I)
1 mile on the Turf for 2 year old Fillies. Purse $1,000,000.00
(4) PLUM ALI has beaten short fields in recording 3 straight victories while making the last run each time. In a well matched field pace-wise look for her to be rolling on late as they enter the stretch and she could prove best at a short price. (9) MADONE ships from the West Coast and is yet another who does her best work in the latter stages of her races. Look for Flavien Prat to settle and make 1 late run hoping to time his move perfectly. (2) MISS AMULET was the beaten favorite in the Group I Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last out. She draws inside the other speeds signed on and could try to control the pace. While she has never run this far she does sport an ascending speed figure pattern that could bode well on the stretchout. (5) AUNT PEARL has never been headed in her 2 lifetime starts and if she outpaces MISS AMULET early on, she could take no end of catching!
10 TENTH RACE (5:15 P.M. EST)
TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance(Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds. Purse $2,000,000.00
(7) JACKIE’S WARRIOR is a perfect 4 for 4 including back to back Grade I victories on the NY circuit. Drawn mid-pack, Joel Rosario should be able to invent a trip in a race that figures to have a solid pace up front. A short price but clearly he appears the horse to beat! (13) ROMBAUER drew wide but that could be a good thing as Javier Castellano can simply drop in toward the rail and let the race unfold before him. If the anticipated pace scenario materializes he could be running on best as they hit the stretch run! (3) REINVESTMENT RISK has been unlucky to bang heads with my top pick in his last 2 and he must find a way to make up a few lengths to turn the tables. He should enjoy a good stalking trip from this cozy draw. (5) ESSENTIAL QUALITY is a lightly raced undefeated TAPIT colt who exits a victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity over this track and distance. He could be right there with a good trip beneath Luis Saez.
LL
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile, or even the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 that I gave out just last November in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile but I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2020 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com. Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
6 SIXTH RACE (2:30 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(5) COWAN has endured a couple of troubled trips in his 4 lifetime starts including drawing the rail in 3 of those. Having 2 spectacular works here at Keeneland since his last start, I suspect the connections feel good about his draw today as it should help facilitate carving out a decent “stalking” trip. Look for Santana to settle just off the ample speed signed on and he could prevail in the opener, which is indeed a wide open affair! (10) BODENHEIMER has 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts, all on the “engine”. He should meet more of an early challenge in this heat but he still merits respect. (14) GOLDEN PAL also has keen speed and he will need it to overcome his wide draw. Stabled here at Keeneland since early September he has worked well and could take all with an alert start and clean trip. (9) AFTER FIVE was the beaten favorite last out in the Grade III Futurity after his 2nd straight troubled start. Still a maiden, the connections keep the faith and a move forward is not beyond the realm of possibility. (13) SECOND OF JULY has outrun his odds in 2 straight and is the likeliest late threat should a contested pace battle ensue.
7 SEVENTH RACE (3:10 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Presented By Coolmore America (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(11) GRETZKY THE GREAT exits a victory in the Grade I Summer Stakes at Woodbine. With 2 A.M. “bullets” in the holster, this colt by NYQUIST seeks his 4th straight victory for trainer Mark Casse. Tyler Gaffalione will climb aboard for the first time and he could prove best in a real scramble. (2) NEW MANDATE ships from Newmarket also seeking his 4th in a row. Frankie Dettori knows the gelding well and will tag along for the ride. A duplication of the Timeform speed rating produced 2 back would put him squarely in the mix at a decent price. (1) SEALIWAY joins my top pick as the only 2 runners with a Group I win on the resume. This Longchamp shipper sports an enviable record in 6 lifetime starts but will need to prove he wants to stretch out beyond a long sprint distance. (3) ABARTA should put in a strong late run assuming an honest pace scenario and he could garner a share at a huge price! (8) OUTADORE is a lightly raced trainee from Wesley Ward who could better this rating beneath Jose Ortiz.
8 EIGHTH RACE (3:50 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds Fillies. Purse $2,000,000.00
(3) DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE is perfectly drawn down inside which should enable Junior Alvarado to either control the pace or sit just off it as he sees the race unfold. 3 for 3 lifetime, this filly by INTO MISCHIEF commands respect. (2) VEQUIST ran 2nd to my top choice last out as the beaten favorite and she could do so again with Joel Rosario climbing aboard for the first time. (1) SIMPLY RAVISHING was victorious in the Grade I Alcibiades last out over this track and distance. Luis Saez bails on VEQUIST to retain the mount for trainer Ken McPeek and she could take all if left alone on the lead! (7) PRINCESS NOOR cost a mere $1,350,000 and while she has paid immediate dividends at 3 for 3 lifetime, her connections hope she can improve on the mediocre speed figures she has produced to date.
9 NINTH RACE (4:30 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I)
1 mile on the Turf for 2 year old Fillies. Purse $1,000,000.00
(4) PLUM ALI has beaten short fields in recording 3 straight victories while making the last run each time. In a well matched field pace-wise look for her to be rolling on late as they enter the stretch and she could prove best at a short price. (9) MADONE ships from the West Coast and is yet another who does her best work in the latter stages of her races. Look for Flavien Prat to settle and make 1 late run hoping to time his move perfectly. (2) MISS AMULET was the beaten favorite in the Group I Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last out. She draws inside the other speeds signed on and could try to control the pace. While she has never run this far she does sport an ascending speed figure pattern that could bode well on the stretchout. (5) AUNT PEARL has never been headed in her 2 lifetime starts and if she outpaces MISS AMULET early on, she could take no end of catching!
10 TENTH RACE (5:15 P.M. EST)
TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance(Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds. Purse $2,000,000.00
(7) JACKIE’S WARRIOR is a perfect 4 for 4 including back to back Grade I victories on the NY circuit. Drawn mid-pack, Joel Rosario should be able to invent a trip in a race that figures to have a solid pace up front. A short price but clearly he appears the horse to beat! (13) ROMBAUER drew wide but that could be a good thing as Javier Castellano can simply drop in toward the rail and let the race unfold before him. If the anticipated pace scenario materializes he could be running on best as they hit the stretch run! (3) REINVESTMENT RISK has been unlucky to bang heads with my top pick in his last 2 and he must find a way to make up a few lengths to turn the tables. He should enjoy a good stalking trip from this cozy draw. (5) ESSENTIAL QUALITY is a lightly raced undefeated TAPIT colt who exits a victory in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity over this track and distance. He could be right there with a good trip beneath Luis Saez.
LL
