BC Mile

[tenfurlongs]

European entrants- (last three Racing Post Ratings) ~ (owner-trainer):

Circus Maximus (102-106-112) (Flaxman Stables, et. al./A. O'Brien)- Queen Anne S. (GI, 1mi.) winner and Sussex S. (GI, 1mi.) second-finisher has lost his form over last three races, all of which featured less than firm going, which he seems to require for his best. Career turf record (16/5-2-3).



Kameko (125-121-120) (Qatar Racing Ltd/Balding)- won the 2000 Guineas (GI) to open the year, then faltered three times at longer distances or against older, including a horror-show trip in the Sussex S. (GI), until righting the ship last out in the GII Joel S. at Newmarket. Talented son of Kitten's Joy has never run over a course not labeled good.





One Master (113-118-117) (Lael Stable/Haggas)- classy 6yo mare owned by Barbaro's connections. Started slowly this season but won two of last five, including a third consecutive victory in the Prix de la Foret (GI, 7F) at Longchamp. Last out was a good third in the British Champions Sprint S. (GI, 6F). Handles all ground, but has never won at a mile. Career turf record (23/7-4-4).



Safe Voyage (120-119-120) (Harmon/Quinn)- 7yo gelding had his best season this term, with three wins including consecutive GIIs before just missing behind 3-peating Prix de la Foret (GI) winner One Master at Longchamp. Consistent sort handles all ground, is best at 7F but has won at a mile. Career turf record (23/10-1-4).



Siskin (103-120-117) (Abdullah/Lyons)- Won first five starts including the Irish 2000 Guineas (GI, 1mi.), then was a fine third behind Mohaather and Circus Maximus in the GI Sussex S. before faltering in GI at Longchamp in September. Career turf record (7/5-0-1).



Lope Y Fernandez (108-108-118) (Smith, et. al./A. O'Brien)- No wins in six GI tries this year. Best effort was close-up third in the Prix Maurice de Gheest (GI, 6.5F) at Deauville. Doesn't seem to want any part of soft going. Appears better at sprint distances as well. Career turf record (11/2-2-3).




North American entrants- 



Winning chance: Kameko, Safe Voyage.

Will use underneath: Digital Age, One Master 





TW

[elkurzhal]

No Lasix for Kameko, Siskin, or Safe Voyage

[1hooper]

Nov 3, 2020 19:14:59 GMT -5 elkurzhal said:

No Lasix for Kameko, Siskin, or Safe Voyage

But there are 3 other Europeans getting Lasix at double digit odds!

[big18741]

Elk

You're my Mile turf whisperer.
I'm struggling with narrowing down the win candidates and underneath horses.
HELP!!!

[elkurzhal]

LOL Big, I'm a bit lost lost this year too. Kameko would have been a single with Lasix. The Connex had typically used it in previous races here and in Canada. dunno why they opted not too here...

I think it's a little more wide open than most years.

Kameko - should love the firmer going and has faired pretty well against very good euros in their longer races. Seems to love a mile. His last got a 1.5 on TG which for a Euro 3 year old is really off the charts. I went though the last 10 or so years of the BC thorographs, and think there was like 1 or 2 others in that range (I should have noted who it was...) with they typical 2-3 point lasix jump, 3# break and inside post - I would have been all in. no lasix has me wavering a bit, but still my key horse.

Holladay's last was really good and he'll save ground, if he doesn't get pressure he may be hard to run down

Ivar - blinks off seems to have done a wonder, he'll need to repeat and get a trip, was a little interested until they made him the ML favorite

Uni - looks like she's soured a little, her best is good enough... figures aside the last did look visually OK. Rosario it appears chose Uni over Raging Bull. 5-1 isn't value, but on BC day in any exotics, you don't have to get value from every leg, so I'll include her in my plays.

Casa Creed's last was on the lead which wasn't a familiar place for him. still ran an OK figure and his best isn't far off these. With a trip he could be involved at a price.

Factor This seemed to love the soft going Preakness day, was a pretty big top. will be a factor in the pace, could get brave depending on what happens with him and Holliday, and if he can clear and save some ground. 13 post and 8-1 don't make me excited, but he's not impossible.

Raging Bull - also seems to have soured a bit this year, Rosario fit well and opts off. brutal post, probably keeps me off completely.

March to the Arch - seems to be on the improve. last race was off slow and a bit of trouble, which kind of muddy's the form. If it gets quick up front (and it probably will) I wouldn't be shocked if he beats the Chad's home.

Circus - seemed to have been out of form before the toss out race in a bog on champions day at ascot. Ascot and Lonchamp really got unlucky this year with the weather (keeneland snickers under her breath)

Lope - seems to be the wiseguy horse here and is getting love all over the pod cast circut, but honestly i don't see it. looks like a not good enough sprinter taking a shot.

Digital age - it's really fast enough and I don't think can stay in touch enough at 8f to get there.

I think that covers everyone...

conclusion Kameko over Casa and March with a bunch of others...

Good luck everyone!!

[elkurzhal]

Recap of my post
Winner - not among the 11 mentioned
Place - out of form
Show - I don’t see it

Terrible... I need a new hobby.

[ozzy]

They could run the race again and I know the result and couldn’t bet it so I am with!