Preakness - my thoughts (worth about a cup of coffee) Oct 2, 2020 11:40:17 GMT -5
Post by bobtailnag on Oct 2, 2020 11:40:17 GMT -5
#1 Excessive 30/1 Hasn't run since since the Rebel last March due to an injury. He almost caught the winner, Nedal in that race. He was back on the work tabs in mid July and appears to have worked well up to this race. I am of the opinion that his best shot for a check is in the bottom of the Tri and Super – especially if the track is wet.
#2 Mr. Big News 12/1. His looks like the kind of long shot I really like if there's a good chance for some quick, early speed – and there's a lot of speed in there. He did finish 3rd in the Derby at 46/1 and he also won a stakes race at OP before that at 47/1. Making big late runs is his preferred running style and I expect to see that same style Saturday.
R3 Art Collector 5/2 Drury took over his training regimen in mid May and, so far, he's gone 4 for 4 including a win in the G2 Blue Grass. He was scheduled for the Derby and Drury gave him a tightener in the Aug 9th Ellis Park Derby which if won easily against an inferior field.. Again he was another horse that missed the Derby due to an injury while training for it. Art is the #2 favorite Saturday but with all that speed he'll have to deal with Authentic and the other two speedsters and Big News and Max Player so at 5/2 he's not a good wagering choice to my way of thinking but he still has a real chance it win it..
#4 Swiss Skydiver 6/0 Even though she make a great showing in the Blue Grass taking the lead early and holding it well into the stretch until Art Collector made his move, she was no match for him. Art caught, passed and ran off rather easily winning for 3 or 4 lengths. She'll have to contend with him again along with Authentic and the two closers. It doesn't''t look promising.
#5 Thousand Words 6/1 He was the third Derby entry to miss the grate but this time it wasn't a training accident – he reared up in the paddock and flipped over – and that was an automatic scratch. He won 2 graded stakes early (Dec & February) but he hasn't looked like potential TC winner. In the San Filipe he finished mid pack, 11 lengths behind the winner. In the listed Oaklawn Stakes he stumbled out of the gate and was never in it. In the G3 Los Al Derby with a field or 4 he finshed 2nd four lengths back. In the listed Shared Belief, another 4-horse field, he did win door-to-door but the other 3 were all closing on him at the end. The comments line “held gamely” encouraged me to watch that race, which I did. The jockey had to use the whip 4 or 5 times in the last half furlong to to get everything he had to get the win by 1/2 length. I just don't see anything in his last 4 races to make me think he has some kind of chance to win Saturday.
#6 Jesus' Team 30/1 & #11 Liveyourbeastlife 30/1
They're both probably in over their heads but with the likely early drag race you never know which big odds type might grab part of the tri or super.
#7 NY Traffic 15/1 He was my pick to be one of my exotic play in the Derby but it looked like he ran out of gas early. Then I learned the he lost a shoe. Training injurys, back flips and missing shoes turned an expected 18 horse field into a 14 horse field. Saffie took over the training for him in January and his last four races before the Derby were graded stakes that make him look like a very legit Derby threat (show-place-place-place) but he was done in by a shoe. “For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the race was lost.” He's one of the 4 major speed types in here and at 15/0 and if you think he's still be up there when the winner crosses the wire you'll want to have his number on his exotics tickets.
#8 Max Player 15/1 He didn't look like a true Derby horse to me going into the race. After Linda won with him in the Withers she sent him in to the Belmont and then the Travers. In the Bel he was 6 lengths behind the leader at the first call and at the finished he was 5 lengths behind winner. In the Travers he was 6 lengths behinds the leader at the first call and and at the finish he was 7 lengths behind the winner. In the Derby he stayed far back all the way to the stretch call then made, or tried to make, his move. He did move from 10th to 5th in that move but only closed 2 lengths on the winner = 9th lengths to 7 lengths. Note, Max is as an “S” style runner so he didn't has a pace to help him but tomorrow there should be lots of pace (I hope) to help him.
#9 Authentic 9/5. We all know what he is and what he can do but there is a reason to think he's far from a slapdunk. In only one race did he run off from the field and that was the G3 Sham last January. One would think he would be capably to run with the the rest of the speed if one or more take of them take off like a rabbit or would have the gas to handle one of the closers who was able to make a move on him down the lane – BUT no one knows that for sure.
#10 Pneumatic 20/1 His biggest win was a $150k listed stakes at Monmouth Park last August. Let's just say he's ambitiously placed. If a maiden runner could win the Kentucky Derby, and one did, then this one could win the Preakness – but I don't think he will
I haven't decided yet just how I will wager but I can say at more than half cash will not have his name on top of the tickets.