LARRY'S PICKS for the 146th Kentucky Derby!
Sept 1, 2020 20:54:58 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Sept 1, 2020 20:54:58 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 146th Kentucky Derby, the most exciting 2 minutes in sports! A field of 18 colts expect to answer the starters’ call seeking the fame and glory that accompanies a victory in the “RUN FOR THE ROSES”. Traditionally contested as the “1st leg of the Triple Crown” and on the “1st Saturday in May”, due to the Covid pandemic this year we have it as the middle leg of the Triple Crown to be run on the 1st Saturday in September.
While the sport of horse racing has been able to function it has nonetheless been hit hard by the pandemic in several ways. Just like the decision we saw at Saratoga and other major meets this Summer, no fans will be allowed on the grounds at Churchill Downs for this Kentucky Derby. Also, consistent with several State travel restrictions and/or mandates, this Derby will mirror somewhat of a “musical chairs” look regarding riders today. The State of Kentucky mandated any jockey planning to ride in the Derby must be in the State by August 31st. This decision caused several big name jockeys on both coasts to give up potential promising mounts in the Derby in order to be able to finish out their Summer meets at the top venues of Saratoga and Del Mar. The derivative to those decisions are that we will see several riders hopping aboard a horse for the 1st time in their life seeking the greatest prize a 3 year old can ever earn! While less than ideal circumstances present themselves, there is nonetheless big potential to turn some profits. Other than making a nice score today I can think of only 1 other positive thing regarding this Kentucky Derby and that is that we only have 8 months to wait and look forward to the 147th Kentucky Derby!
My analysis will be in the order of post position draw with morning line odds reflected and I will comment on each runners’ respective chances for success as I see it. Thereafter, my personal “Selection” page will be on display at the end.
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN
TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
1) FINNICK THE FIERCE 50-1 JOCKEY – MARTIN GARCIA
This one eyed colt had the misfortune to draw down inside and while the #1 post owns the most Derby wins historically, one must recognize there were much smaller fields 100+ years ago. Put in perspective when I gave out FERDINAND as my selection to win the 1986 Derby I knew he would have to be the 1st winner from the rail in 40 plus years! It takes a “stone closer” void of any early speed to get the right trip from the rail as he needs to drop back and avoid the early chaos potential that speed horses might encounter. If the 40 year streak FERDINAND snapped at $37.00 wasn’t impressive enough, consider that no runner from the rail has won since 1986 either! That said, this colt has a certain “claim to fame” that no other runner in this field has. Last November 30th he ran 2nd in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over this main track at Churchill Downs. It was rated “sloppy” that day and at odds of 88-1, he finished ahead of todays’ heavy favorite, TIZ THE LAW! Last out in the Blue Grass Stakes he finished 7th beaten 10+ lengths. He has been working well and while a “sloppy” track might enhance his chances, he appears to be a cut below many in here at this stage of his career.
2) MAX PLAYER 30-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA, JR.
Transferred from Linda Rice to the Steve Asmussen barn following a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes, this son of HONOR CODE will be ridden by Santana for the 1st time. He typically does his best work in the late stages of his races so the connections are hoping for a contested early pace scenario to develop. If it materializes he could be right there with slight improvement.
3) ENFORCEABLE 30-1 JOCKEY – ADAM BESCHIZZA
This son of hot sire TAPIT finished 4th beaten 8 ½ lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes last out on July 11th. He has experience over the main track at Churchill but at 0 for 3, it is not positive. He finished 4th behind a couple of these same horses as a 2 year old in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and while he has several works over the track since his last it would appear that he would need a pace meltdown in order to garner a major share. Jockey Joel Rosario opts to skip the quarantine issues that surround this Derby in order to ride out the Saratoga meet so 28 year old Adam Beschizza gets his shot at the big time with his inaugural Kentucky Derby mount. Look for him late, if at all!
4) STORM THE COURT 50-1 JOCKEY – JULIEN LEPAROUX
The reigning 2 year old champion hasn’t improved during the 3 year old campaign and he remains winless. He exits the Grade III Lajolla Handicap on the West Coast, a race wherein he finished 2nd beaten 2 ½ lengths. That was contested on grass so you have the “turf to dirt” angle to consider but he still looks to be an outsider. Regular rider Flavien Prat opts to finish out the Del Mar meet rather than deal with the quarantine issues so Kentucky based jockey Julien Leparoux inherits the mount.
5) MAJOR FED 50-1 JOCKEY – JAMES GRAHAM
This GHOSTZAPPER colt has trained well following a 2nd place finish in the Indiana Derby last out. While he sports an 0 for 2 record at Churchill Downs, his debut over “sloppy” conditions wherein he ran 3rd was somewhat of a “key” race in that the 2 who beat him won right back. Nonetheless, he hasn’t improved as much as some of the others herein and he would have to take a big step forward to contend. One of about 7 “closers” in the race, the pace scenario will be crucial for him.
6) KING GUILLERMO 20-1 JOCKEY – SAMY CAMACHO
The Tampa Bay Derby winner has been off since running 2nd in a split of the subsequent Arkansas Derby on May 2nd. He was beaten by a good one that day in NADAL and the connections have opted to work up to the Kentucky Derby since then. He has shown considerable speed in a few works at CD prior to a modest 4 furlong stroll on the 29th when the connections were not trying to get too much from him. He may be another with serious designs on being forwardly placed. Off the lengthy layoff he will have to improve to make an impact but that improvement is not beyond the realm of possibility!
7) MONEY MOVES 30-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
A late addition to the field from Trainer Todd Pletcher is this colt by CANDY RIDE. Lightly raced with only 3 starts he does show an ascending speed figure pattern but he has never faced the likes of these. He should get a decent “stalking” trip but he will be seriously tested for class today.
8) SOUTH BEND 50-1 JOCKEY – TYLER GAFFALIONE
The most experienced horse in the race with 12 lifetime starts, this late runner by ALGORITHMS was 4th at this distance last out in the Travers Stakes beaten better than 9 lengths. He won his 1st 3 lifetime starts including 2 races here at Churchill but he hasn’t won since! Given the breeding I’m not sure he really wants to go this far and others look better for the top spots.
9) MR. BIG NEWS 50-1 JOCKEY – GABRIEL SAEZ
Another late addition to the party is this colt by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY. He was 6th in the Blue Grass Stakes last out and 3 back he was 5th in a split of the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds! Sandwiched in between was a 46-1 shocking victory over the slop at Oaklawn Park which coincidentally was the only time Gabriel Saez has ridden him. If it comes up wet he might be used underneath in gimmicks but he appears to be in too deep.
10) THOUSAND WORDS 15-1 JOCKEY – FLORENT GEROUX
This Florida bred by PIONEEROF THE NILE upset HONOR A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes last out while producing the 2nd highest speed figure in this field. Off form this past Spring, his connections are among a handful who are grateful that the Kentucky Derby was postponed for 4 months as he surely was not headed there in May. With last out rider Abel Cedillo opting to stay on the West Coast, Florent Geroux will climb aboard for the 1st time for Trainer Bob Baffert who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby with 5 wins. If he doesn’t “bounce” off his last greatly improved performance, he could land a share!
11) NECKER ISLAND 50-1 JOCKEY – MIGUEL MENA
This HARD SPUN colt exits consecutive 3rd place finishes in both the Ellis Park Derby and Indiana Derby. A strong A.M. worker, he has yet to transfer that attribute to his afternoon races and he would appear to have his work cut out for him. A “stalker” by nature, he could get a decent trip just off the frontrunners and he wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track but he will need to improve significantly to garner a money spot!
12) SOLE VOLANTE 30-1 JOCKEY – LUCA PANICI
13) ATTACHMENT RATE 50-1 JOCKEY – JOE TALAMO
This Virginia bred by HARD SPUN has but his maiden victory on the resume but he has kept decent company throughout this year. The downside is that he will make his 8th start of the year and at some point the furlongs may catch up to him. Bred as well as any signed on to get the distance he is not the worst stab to use on the bottom of vertical plays. Talamo should have him in a “stalking” posture and he’ll have a chance to gain a share.
14) WINNING IMPRESSION 50-1 JOCKEY – JOE ROCCO
This colt by PAYNTER got beat 13 ½ lengths when reporting home 7th in the Ellis Park Derby last out. The natural late runner shows some good works at Churchill Downs but his lone victory came over “sloppy” conditions at Oaklawn Park. He would be a major surprise to do better than a mid-pack finish.
15) NY TRAFFIC 20-1 JOCKEY – PACO LOPEZ
This NY bred made a furious deep stretch run to nearly collar AUTHENTIC in the Grade I Haskell Stakes at Monmouth last out and he finished 2nd in the Grade III Matt Winn over this surface previously. Like a few others signed on he has keen speed that should allow Lopez to place him wherever he chooses depending on how the race unfolds in the early stages. He sports a series of solid Spa works and if you like AUTHENTIC then you must give NY TRAFFIC a look also at what promises to be much more generous odds!
16) HONOR A.P. 5-1 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
Upset last out at odds on in the Shared Belief Stakes, this colt was also 2nd best 3 back in the Grade II San Felipe while getting the job done in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby between those 2 races. Despite his last loss he has improved his speed figures and he may very well be poised to give a good account of himself as long as he can avoid a prolonged speed duel. Jockey Mike Smith gives up a lot to retain the mount including an opportunity to ride AUTHENTIC for Bob Baffert. That said his connection with Trainer John Shirreffs has struck gold in this race before when Smith booted huge longshot GIACOMO home in 2005.
17) TIZ THE LAW 3-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This ultra-consistent New York bred by CONSTITUTION needs no introduction after winning the Grade I Belmont Stakes and Grade I Travers Stakes by open lengths in his last 2 starts. Campaigned by the same connections who brought us FUNNY CIDE in 2003, Trainer Barclay Tagg looks to become the oldest Trainer to ever win the Kentucky Derby at 82 years old. He possesses a good stalking style that should have him well positioned throughout. If one might want to think about a potential “chink in the armor”, the colt has not crossed the finish line 1st only once in his career but interestingly enough that occurred here at Churchill Downs when he ran 3rd in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club as a 2 year old. That was the only time in his career that he caught a “sloppy” track so that is something to keep in mind. Jockey Manny Franco will forego the last week of riding at Saratoga to keep this mount and he appears strictly the one to deny!
18) AUTHENTIC 8-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
This “wire to wire” winner of the Grade I Haskell Stakes last out got a bit leg weary in deep stretch narrowly holding off NY TRAFFIC by a nostril. He will have designs on setting the pace again and like HONOR A.P. he will need to avoid a duel in order to produce his best. Jockey Mike Smith opts off in favor of retaining his mount on HONOR A.P. and as such multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert calls upon John Velazquez to ride! Those who believe should at least get an early thrill.
“SELECTIONS”
1st – (#17) TIZ THE LAW 3-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
If one looks back in UpInClass.com at my last 2 write-ups for the Travers Stakes and Belmont Stakes you might decide the theme has been “I fought the Law and the Law won”! I spotted TIZ THE LAW 2nd in both races and he proved me wrong by proving to be quite superior on those race days. The winner of all 4 of his 2020 starts, he is hard to look past especially given the multiple defections we’ve seen from the 3 year old division this year. Make no mistake, he has taken on all comers and he has prevailed impressively! He should be the shortest price since POINT GIVEN in 2001 and he is strictly the horse to beat!
2nd – (#12) SOLE VOLANTE 30-1 JOCKEY – LUCA PANICI
While nobody needed LARRY’S PICKS to get to TIZ THE LAW, you might very well not find this colt spotted 2nd in any other public handicappers’ pick box! SOLE VOLANTE had not run a bad race until reporting home 6th last out in the Belmont Stakes. While I know the owners wanted to go in the Belmont, a close exam of the past performances would clearly point out the mistake they made. He is a horse who has always produced after a “freshening”. He won his debut with a strong late move over turf after undoubtedly preparing for a couple of months. 49 days later he reproduced that powerful late kick and won again on turf in a fast time. His 2 remaining victories occurred coming back from 35 days off and 81 days off. When he beat high price allowance/optional claimer types at a flat mile on June 10th it followed the aforementioned 81 day layoff. To wheel him back in the Grade I Belmont a mere 10 days later is easy to second guess. I believe the race is a complete “toss”! Since the Belmont the connections flirted with running again either in the Ellis Park Derby or grassy Hall of Fame Stakes at the Spa. In avoiding both he comes into this Kentucky Derby off a 77 day break all the while working very well over the turf at Palm Meadows Training Center. In an extremely well matched field in many respects once you get past TIZ THE LAW I think SOLE VOLANTE may be running on best in the late stages and he could add significant value in the gimmicks.
I don’t often do this especially in an 18 horse field but I will stop at my top 2 today. It’s not unprecedented by any means, even in the Kentucky Derby but it is rare to not go at least 4 deep on my “SELECTION” page. Sometimes, “less can be more”! I recall in 1986 touting FERDINAND and nobody else and we weren’t disappointed. I only wrote up SILVER CHARM in 1997 and while it was only a $10.00 win price, we weren’t disappointed. In 1994 I only spotted 2 horses just like today, BLUMIN AFFAIR and GO FOR GIN. Long time readers of LARRY’S PICKS know that the advice that day was to box my 2 with the other 10 betting interests in trifectas. When they ran 1st and 3rd the trifecta came back $2,300.00 on track but $2,800.00 here in NY as it was back before pools were comingled. Sometimes “less can be more”! I could throw a blanket over a half dozen or so others who I also believe have potential but officially I will stop at these 2.
I hope you enjoy the 146th Kentucky Derby! Good luck to all who play today and let’s bring them all back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
While the sport of horse racing has been able to function it has nonetheless been hit hard by the pandemic in several ways. Just like the decision we saw at Saratoga and other major meets this Summer, no fans will be allowed on the grounds at Churchill Downs for this Kentucky Derby. Also, consistent with several State travel restrictions and/or mandates, this Derby will mirror somewhat of a “musical chairs” look regarding riders today. The State of Kentucky mandated any jockey planning to ride in the Derby must be in the State by August 31st. This decision caused several big name jockeys on both coasts to give up potential promising mounts in the Derby in order to be able to finish out their Summer meets at the top venues of Saratoga and Del Mar. The derivative to those decisions are that we will see several riders hopping aboard a horse for the 1st time in their life seeking the greatest prize a 3 year old can ever earn! While less than ideal circumstances present themselves, there is nonetheless big potential to turn some profits. Other than making a nice score today I can think of only 1 other positive thing regarding this Kentucky Derby and that is that we only have 8 months to wait and look forward to the 147th Kentucky Derby!
My analysis will be in the order of post position draw with morning line odds reflected and I will comment on each runners’ respective chances for success as I see it. Thereafter, my personal “Selection” page will be on display at the end.
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN
TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
1) FINNICK THE FIERCE 50-1 JOCKEY – MARTIN GARCIA
This one eyed colt had the misfortune to draw down inside and while the #1 post owns the most Derby wins historically, one must recognize there were much smaller fields 100+ years ago. Put in perspective when I gave out FERDINAND as my selection to win the 1986 Derby I knew he would have to be the 1st winner from the rail in 40 plus years! It takes a “stone closer” void of any early speed to get the right trip from the rail as he needs to drop back and avoid the early chaos potential that speed horses might encounter. If the 40 year streak FERDINAND snapped at $37.00 wasn’t impressive enough, consider that no runner from the rail has won since 1986 either! That said, this colt has a certain “claim to fame” that no other runner in this field has. Last November 30th he ran 2nd in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over this main track at Churchill Downs. It was rated “sloppy” that day and at odds of 88-1, he finished ahead of todays’ heavy favorite, TIZ THE LAW! Last out in the Blue Grass Stakes he finished 7th beaten 10+ lengths. He has been working well and while a “sloppy” track might enhance his chances, he appears to be a cut below many in here at this stage of his career.
2) MAX PLAYER 30-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA, JR.
Transferred from Linda Rice to the Steve Asmussen barn following a 3rd place finish in the Travers Stakes, this son of HONOR CODE will be ridden by Santana for the 1st time. He typically does his best work in the late stages of his races so the connections are hoping for a contested early pace scenario to develop. If it materializes he could be right there with slight improvement.
3) ENFORCEABLE 30-1 JOCKEY – ADAM BESCHIZZA
This son of hot sire TAPIT finished 4th beaten 8 ½ lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes last out on July 11th. He has experience over the main track at Churchill but at 0 for 3, it is not positive. He finished 4th behind a couple of these same horses as a 2 year old in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and while he has several works over the track since his last it would appear that he would need a pace meltdown in order to garner a major share. Jockey Joel Rosario opts to skip the quarantine issues that surround this Derby in order to ride out the Saratoga meet so 28 year old Adam Beschizza gets his shot at the big time with his inaugural Kentucky Derby mount. Look for him late, if at all!
4) STORM THE COURT 50-1 JOCKEY – JULIEN LEPAROUX
The reigning 2 year old champion hasn’t improved during the 3 year old campaign and he remains winless. He exits the Grade III Lajolla Handicap on the West Coast, a race wherein he finished 2nd beaten 2 ½ lengths. That was contested on grass so you have the “turf to dirt” angle to consider but he still looks to be an outsider. Regular rider Flavien Prat opts to finish out the Del Mar meet rather than deal with the quarantine issues so Kentucky based jockey Julien Leparoux inherits the mount.
5) MAJOR FED 50-1 JOCKEY – JAMES GRAHAM
This GHOSTZAPPER colt has trained well following a 2nd place finish in the Indiana Derby last out. While he sports an 0 for 2 record at Churchill Downs, his debut over “sloppy” conditions wherein he ran 3rd was somewhat of a “key” race in that the 2 who beat him won right back. Nonetheless, he hasn’t improved as much as some of the others herein and he would have to take a big step forward to contend. One of about 7 “closers” in the race, the pace scenario will be crucial for him.
6) KING GUILLERMO 20-1 JOCKEY – SAMY CAMACHO
The Tampa Bay Derby winner has been off since running 2nd in a split of the subsequent Arkansas Derby on May 2nd. He was beaten by a good one that day in NADAL and the connections have opted to work up to the Kentucky Derby since then. He has shown considerable speed in a few works at CD prior to a modest 4 furlong stroll on the 29th when the connections were not trying to get too much from him. He may be another with serious designs on being forwardly placed. Off the lengthy layoff he will have to improve to make an impact but that improvement is not beyond the realm of possibility!
7) MONEY MOVES 30-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
A late addition to the field from Trainer Todd Pletcher is this colt by CANDY RIDE. Lightly raced with only 3 starts he does show an ascending speed figure pattern but he has never faced the likes of these. He should get a decent “stalking” trip but he will be seriously tested for class today.
8) SOUTH BEND 50-1 JOCKEY – TYLER GAFFALIONE
The most experienced horse in the race with 12 lifetime starts, this late runner by ALGORITHMS was 4th at this distance last out in the Travers Stakes beaten better than 9 lengths. He won his 1st 3 lifetime starts including 2 races here at Churchill but he hasn’t won since! Given the breeding I’m not sure he really wants to go this far and others look better for the top spots.
9) MR. BIG NEWS 50-1 JOCKEY – GABRIEL SAEZ
Another late addition to the party is this colt by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY. He was 6th in the Blue Grass Stakes last out and 3 back he was 5th in a split of the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds! Sandwiched in between was a 46-1 shocking victory over the slop at Oaklawn Park which coincidentally was the only time Gabriel Saez has ridden him. If it comes up wet he might be used underneath in gimmicks but he appears to be in too deep.
10) THOUSAND WORDS 15-1 JOCKEY – FLORENT GEROUX
This Florida bred by PIONEEROF THE NILE upset HONOR A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes last out while producing the 2nd highest speed figure in this field. Off form this past Spring, his connections are among a handful who are grateful that the Kentucky Derby was postponed for 4 months as he surely was not headed there in May. With last out rider Abel Cedillo opting to stay on the West Coast, Florent Geroux will climb aboard for the 1st time for Trainer Bob Baffert who knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby with 5 wins. If he doesn’t “bounce” off his last greatly improved performance, he could land a share!
11) NECKER ISLAND 50-1 JOCKEY – MIGUEL MENA
This HARD SPUN colt exits consecutive 3rd place finishes in both the Ellis Park Derby and Indiana Derby. A strong A.M. worker, he has yet to transfer that attribute to his afternoon races and he would appear to have his work cut out for him. A “stalker” by nature, he could get a decent trip just off the frontrunners and he wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track but he will need to improve significantly to garner a money spot!
12) SOLE VOLANTE 30-1 JOCKEY – LUCA PANICI
This Kentucky bred by KARAKONTIE out of a KINGMAMBO mare finished a disappointing 6th in the Belmont Stakes on June 20th, the only bad race he has run. Off the 11 weeks since the connections hope that the good form on display previously will reappear on the 1st Saturday in September. The Grade III Sam F. Davis winner will drop back early on and hope for an honest if not hotly contested pace to help facilitate his usual strong late kick. A solid 5 furlong work over turf on the 28th signals he is doing well and he is not the worst stab to potentially bounce back and gain a piece of this superfecta at very generous odds!
This Virginia bred by HARD SPUN has but his maiden victory on the resume but he has kept decent company throughout this year. The downside is that he will make his 8th start of the year and at some point the furlongs may catch up to him. Bred as well as any signed on to get the distance he is not the worst stab to use on the bottom of vertical plays. Talamo should have him in a “stalking” posture and he’ll have a chance to gain a share.
14) WINNING IMPRESSION 50-1 JOCKEY – JOE ROCCO
This colt by PAYNTER got beat 13 ½ lengths when reporting home 7th in the Ellis Park Derby last out. The natural late runner shows some good works at Churchill Downs but his lone victory came over “sloppy” conditions at Oaklawn Park. He would be a major surprise to do better than a mid-pack finish.
15) NY TRAFFIC 20-1 JOCKEY – PACO LOPEZ
This NY bred made a furious deep stretch run to nearly collar AUTHENTIC in the Grade I Haskell Stakes at Monmouth last out and he finished 2nd in the Grade III Matt Winn over this surface previously. Like a few others signed on he has keen speed that should allow Lopez to place him wherever he chooses depending on how the race unfolds in the early stages. He sports a series of solid Spa works and if you like AUTHENTIC then you must give NY TRAFFIC a look also at what promises to be much more generous odds!
16) HONOR A.P. 5-1 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
Upset last out at odds on in the Shared Belief Stakes, this colt was also 2nd best 3 back in the Grade II San Felipe while getting the job done in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby between those 2 races. Despite his last loss he has improved his speed figures and he may very well be poised to give a good account of himself as long as he can avoid a prolonged speed duel. Jockey Mike Smith gives up a lot to retain the mount including an opportunity to ride AUTHENTIC for Bob Baffert. That said his connection with Trainer John Shirreffs has struck gold in this race before when Smith booted huge longshot GIACOMO home in 2005.
17) TIZ THE LAW 3-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This ultra-consistent New York bred by CONSTITUTION needs no introduction after winning the Grade I Belmont Stakes and Grade I Travers Stakes by open lengths in his last 2 starts. Campaigned by the same connections who brought us FUNNY CIDE in 2003, Trainer Barclay Tagg looks to become the oldest Trainer to ever win the Kentucky Derby at 82 years old. He possesses a good stalking style that should have him well positioned throughout. If one might want to think about a potential “chink in the armor”, the colt has not crossed the finish line 1st only once in his career but interestingly enough that occurred here at Churchill Downs when he ran 3rd in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club as a 2 year old. That was the only time in his career that he caught a “sloppy” track so that is something to keep in mind. Jockey Manny Franco will forego the last week of riding at Saratoga to keep this mount and he appears strictly the one to deny!
18) AUTHENTIC 8-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
This “wire to wire” winner of the Grade I Haskell Stakes last out got a bit leg weary in deep stretch narrowly holding off NY TRAFFIC by a nostril. He will have designs on setting the pace again and like HONOR A.P. he will need to avoid a duel in order to produce his best. Jockey Mike Smith opts off in favor of retaining his mount on HONOR A.P. and as such multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert calls upon John Velazquez to ride! Those who believe should at least get an early thrill.
“SELECTIONS”
1st – (#17) TIZ THE LAW 3-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
If one looks back in UpInClass.com at my last 2 write-ups for the Travers Stakes and Belmont Stakes you might decide the theme has been “I fought the Law and the Law won”! I spotted TIZ THE LAW 2nd in both races and he proved me wrong by proving to be quite superior on those race days. The winner of all 4 of his 2020 starts, he is hard to look past especially given the multiple defections we’ve seen from the 3 year old division this year. Make no mistake, he has taken on all comers and he has prevailed impressively! He should be the shortest price since POINT GIVEN in 2001 and he is strictly the horse to beat!
2nd – (#12) SOLE VOLANTE 30-1 JOCKEY – LUCA PANICI
While nobody needed LARRY’S PICKS to get to TIZ THE LAW, you might very well not find this colt spotted 2nd in any other public handicappers’ pick box! SOLE VOLANTE had not run a bad race until reporting home 6th last out in the Belmont Stakes. While I know the owners wanted to go in the Belmont, a close exam of the past performances would clearly point out the mistake they made. He is a horse who has always produced after a “freshening”. He won his debut with a strong late move over turf after undoubtedly preparing for a couple of months. 49 days later he reproduced that powerful late kick and won again on turf in a fast time. His 2 remaining victories occurred coming back from 35 days off and 81 days off. When he beat high price allowance/optional claimer types at a flat mile on June 10th it followed the aforementioned 81 day layoff. To wheel him back in the Grade I Belmont a mere 10 days later is easy to second guess. I believe the race is a complete “toss”! Since the Belmont the connections flirted with running again either in the Ellis Park Derby or grassy Hall of Fame Stakes at the Spa. In avoiding both he comes into this Kentucky Derby off a 77 day break all the while working very well over the turf at Palm Meadows Training Center. In an extremely well matched field in many respects once you get past TIZ THE LAW I think SOLE VOLANTE may be running on best in the late stages and he could add significant value in the gimmicks.
I don’t often do this especially in an 18 horse field but I will stop at my top 2 today. It’s not unprecedented by any means, even in the Kentucky Derby but it is rare to not go at least 4 deep on my “SELECTION” page. Sometimes, “less can be more”! I recall in 1986 touting FERDINAND and nobody else and we weren’t disappointed. I only wrote up SILVER CHARM in 1997 and while it was only a $10.00 win price, we weren’t disappointed. In 1994 I only spotted 2 horses just like today, BLUMIN AFFAIR and GO FOR GIN. Long time readers of LARRY’S PICKS know that the advice that day was to box my 2 with the other 10 betting interests in trifectas. When they ran 1st and 3rd the trifecta came back $2,300.00 on track but $2,800.00 here in NY as it was back before pools were comingled. Sometimes “less can be more”! I could throw a blanket over a half dozen or so others who I also believe have potential but officially I will stop at these 2.
I hope you enjoy the 146th Kentucky Derby! Good luck to all who play today and let’s bring them all back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
