KY Oaks card

[spiderjohn]

Somewhat normal early, picks up in class late. Interesting late p5–three parts look to be short-priced—who knows?
13 races—from 11am est to 6:30 est
Long gaps as the day goes on, and assuming that Derby Day will be scheduled somewhat as usual. Perfect day to do it all from home—plenty of time to do other things between races, or celebrate a nice weather holiday weekend.

[UpInClass]

ODDS & ENTRIES

[shoes]

Yep. Oaks and Derby on the deck!

[spiderjohn]

Just downloaded BRIS ultimates for both days--check Bruno's section for the first time in months--nothing there--dawned on me, not allowed to view workouts?

[Badactor]

Okay Folks,
I don't usually do this,
but here it is and it's a 10!

FREE KO card
super-secret
subscribers only
nightcap special!

Leparoux is the Lynch pin to success in the finale.

You're welcome in advance!🐴

[ozzy]

Sept 2, 2020 9:29:24 GMT -5 spiderjohn said:

Just downloaded BRIS ultimates for both days--check Bruno's section for the first time in months--nothing there--dawned on me, not allowed to view workouts?

Spider, Bruno’s stuff is out as received Oaks card today. He’s doing zoom webinars too tonight for Friday and tomorrow for Saturday

[ozzy]

Started handicapping and expect a fair track as rain overnight into tomorrow morning, then drying out with clear skies and near 80 both Oaks and Derby Day.

I like the 2 2YO MSWs on Friday (Race 2 and 5)
I think Nitrous will appreciate the class relief a bit in Race 6 (and Hog Creek Hustle will scratch and run in the first on Derby Day)
Love the set up and rebound for Sconsin in the Eight Belles
Think Sharing is an easy single in the Edgewood
Will try to beat the favorites in the Alysheba using Mr Freeze and Title Ready
Will watch in awe as Monomoy Girl wins again in the La Troienne
And am all in on Speech in the Oaks
Dell, I like the other Lynch Turf Sprint a bit and will give yours a look but using Diamond Oops very prominently as well with Bound For Nowhere a scratch.

Headed down tomorrow morning first thing and if I get anything good I'll be emailing you the pics Dell!

[spiderjohn]

Thanx 4 the heads-up, Oz.....missed the webinar and hope to watch later + tonight
Should be a long, quiet, unusual two days at the Downs

Interesting race card that should be somewhat chalky late--or so it seems....
Maybe a few surprises early?
Should be dry/fast by then--maybe some give on the grass[
Broad shotgun approach to the day—could be expensive—could be a winner!

race 1
Interesting 7f 3+mdnf to start off the day. Flint's #4 SAINTSATION should go to the front, and may hold on for at least piece of the tri. Well-bred/well trained Chad Brown #5 FINANCIAL ONE is the ml choice, and would be no surprise though looks like a turfer to me(trainer usually starts his turfers 1st out on lawn). #1 entry from two top trainers, with quite a few of these coming out of a 7f KEE race. 1A MOVIE MOXY was clearly the best of those, and is my pick here for Kenneally/Tyler G. Also get a Lynch #1 bonus with her. Always use Stanley Hough 1sters, and he has a sneakily well-prepared #9 WHISPERING PINES.

TOP CHOICE 1A SCRATCHES
Now liking #2 GLAMOUR GIRL, who hasn't won while chasing some good ones.

Switching to a broad xbox 2-4-5-7-9
p3 pw 2-5-7-9/1-2-3-4-6/1-2-4

race 2
Wide open--you tell me......
Always safe with Asmussen/Santana, and no exception here with well-named #3 SIANARA maybe wtw @ 6f. #2 MALIBU BIRD is training well for her 2nd start @ good odds. Same with #4 LADY TRAVELER. The other Casse has #6 SALTY AS CAN BE, who is also working like a winner. #11 FARSIGHTED training very well while starting far out at the sprint distance.

xboxing 2-3-4-6-11

race 3
Sneaky competitive race where a few high # last-out winners are coming from "off" surfaces. Maybe #4 POSITIVE SPIRIT returns to best form here after a disappointing effort @ Toga. Keeps Tyler G. #5 BEAUTIFUL TRAUMA may start out in front and stay there. #1 HIGH REGARD could be the slight surprise since she is working extremely well. #2 JEWELED PRINCESS should be the post time favorite though needs to transfer recent success to a dry surface.

5-6 SCRATCH

too short for the tri
#1 win--hopefully live in p3 and don't see much value here

race 4
#9 IRISH WILLOW returns from a freshening, cutting back in distance and switching surfaces. If all of that is a plus, she could be very live here since she is working extremely well. Chad Brown's #8 PALOMITA has been competitive with equal or better. Co-favorites #3 MISS T TOO and #6 OCEAN BREEZE have also been chasing top quality in better races.

tri key 8-9/1-3-6-8-9
Xbox 1-3-6-8-9

race 5
Back to 2yo mdnf sprinting 6f.....wide open again
Asmussen/Santana with #2 GOOD WITH NUMBERS ships in ready to pop. #11 HONORIFIQUE shortens to 6f after gaining experience in a cheap Ellis race and is working very fast. #12 PEACE BROKER also seems to be a good one. #8 TRAVEL COLUMN was an expensive Frosted who is finishing her works strongly.

tri key 2-8-12/2-5-8-10-11-12
shotgun p4 pw 2-8-11-12/1-6-7-8/6-7-8-9/1-7

race 6
Challenging sprint for older.....
#8 STRIKE THAT won easily @ Toga last out, always finishes well and has only lost to Volitile this year. #6 NITROUS has the trainer/rider I like and is the buzz horse. #1 MANNY WAH is the only other I give a win chance.
tri box 1-6-7-8

race 7
#7 I HEAR YOU was very impressive breaking her maiden in last, with the runner-up winning nicely next out. DWL often pops with a surprise on big days, and #10 SENSE YOU LEFT will take this field as far as she can at a big price. #8 SICILIA from Drysdale has Euro experience vs winners and in her 2nd US start should be a factor. #9 ELLA BRILLA has also faced decent winners + has nice #s. #6 FLABBERGASTED has the pedigree/trainer and is improving.

tri pw 6-7-8/6-7-8-9/all
p6 if you have to play it....6-7-8-9/1-7/3/2-5-6-7/8/1-4-5

race 8
Stakes run starts--very nice sprint
#7 FOUR GRACES has been close to perfect, and may continue though possibly short-priced. Same could be said for #1 MUNDAYE CALL. #5 SCONSIN could pick up the pieces if the top 2 duel themselves into submission.

saver tri key 5/all
p5 pw 1-7/2-3/2-5-6-7/8/1-4-5


race 9
#3 SHARING is an obvious standout. Training well for Motion after a huge effort @ Royal Ascot. If she stumbles, #2 HENDY WOODS seems like the best alternative. 1-5-6-8 underneath.
Tri key 2/1-3-5-6-8
P4 pw 3/2-4-6-7/8/1-4-5


race 10
Very competitive mid-distance stakes
#6 BY MY STANDARDS fires every time, and may try to take this wtw. #5 MR.FREEZE and #8 BODEXPRESS may contest the pace. If so, #2 MCKINZIE, #3 OWENDALE and #7 TITLE READY should be running late.
Wide open shotgun tri pw 2-5-6-7/2-5-6-7/1-2-3-4-5-6-7
p4 2-5-6-7/8/1-4-5/4-5-6-8-9-12

race 11
#8 MONOMOY GIRL rarely loses, and is training very well. A few nice ones also in good form here to compete. Can’t see any of them winning, however that is what makes for boxcar payoffs. Witnessed it Wednesday when a 1/5 “can’t lose” sprinter stopped to finish last.
small tri key 2-3-7/2-3-6-7-8

race 12
#5 GAMINE and #1 SWISS SKYDIVER are the big names, while #4 SPEECH is the steam runner currently. #1 has been pointed for this race forever, and should be between #4 and #5 and get the first run IF GAMINE starts to waiver after being pressed. I expect #4 SPEECH to be over-bet, and possibly #1 to drift up a little.

#1 win if the day is going well
Tri pw 1-4-5/1-3-4-5/all saver

race 13
Closes out a long day 1 of the endurance test
Nothing like ending it with a stakes quality turf sprint free-for-all
#5 EXTRAVAGANT KID is the buzz runner who needs trip cooperation to get it done. #4 BOUND FOR NOWHERE is still out there trying, and could be in it. #2 WELLABLED will take it as far possible. So many in here have a real shot.

xboxing 3-4-5-6-8-9 and 4-5-6-8-9-12
Hoping to fall in to a score.....

All subject to change

Good luck!

[ozzy]

Spider, let me know if you watched tonight's webinar. Interested to catch the replay in the morning when he sends.

I'm not thrilled with tomorrow's card and will pick my spots. I do like the the 2YO races.

I will be using Whispering Pines heavily in the first. The 5 is a half to Close Hatches but I don't know....

In the 2nd, despite being a Mott firster, lots to like about Amusing Antics whose dam is a 1/2 to Covfefe. Malibu Bird should improve as well as was just bested by Girl Daddy who won the 2yo stakes today easily enough and Norm Casee won the night cap with a 2nd time starter as well. Salty As Can Be is a 1/2 to Salty who I loved, but the elder Casse has been ice cold.

In the 5th several here but like Peace Broker, a 1/2 to Oaks runner Donna Veloce and Travel Column who was an expensive yearling purchase as well.

Already said I like Nitrous in the 6th with Mucho.

Love Sconsin off the pace in the Eight Belles and single Sharing in the 9th to close out a pick 3 but love Hendy Woods underneath in the straight exacta as well.

Mr Freeze in the Alysheba althought have to respect McKenzie somewhat but think it is a bad weekend for Baffert here.

Monomoy Girl rolls with She's A Julie in the cold exacta, then Speech in the Oaks with a bomb underneath in Bayerness and we agree on the turf sprint horse although Bound For Nowhere will scratch out and I'll box with Diamond Oops.

Best of luck all! Back there in just 10 hours....

[Badactor]

Really enjoyed reading your analysis...
Thank you!

I figure movie moxie in the first race.
Lady traveler & salty as can be in the second.
Seeing the third a little differently,
singling redemption road. Will be a nice PK3.

I'm excited about these next two days...
Never thought we'd make it but here we are. Good luck!

[spiderjohn]

Unfortunately missed both webinars—hope to watch today

Be careful there Ozzy—have heard that the downtown Louisville climate is less than friendly. If any weirdness happens, it would be tomorrow. “Protesters” probably don’t know about Oaks day....

[elkurzhal]

1st - Glamor Girl and Norma Jean faster than the favorite on Tgraph and should both be solid prices.

2nd - Ship It has a great Forster workout pattern, and mcpeek first era have been lights out.

About to tee off for a round of golf with my wife, married 16 years today!

[gam]

If you're a player who thinks horizontally first, second and third and other wagers only occasionally, you have a dilemma today in the stakes portion of the card. Skip, play and pound chalky combos, or play for some significant upsets. Some thoughts: wondering if Sharing might be vulnerable coming back from the trip to England? Has happened before. I like Mr. Freeze but it looks to me he's at his best at the one-turn mile distance. Hate to say it, but the race sets up well for McKinzie and he romped in this race last year handily beating Tom's d'Etat. I liked Owendale in the Foster and it wouldn't shock me if he won this race. By My Standards is a nice horse but I think he's a bit overrated. Won't try to beat Monomoy Girl. Can someone other than Gamine or Swiss Skydiver win the Oaks? Not exactly a chalky race in terms of historical context. Currently considering putting together a p5 play that mixes in a few upsetters.

Edit:  forgot to mention when discussing McKinzie, he gets a very nice shift in weights for this one.  In at 118 for the first time since this race last year and getting 5 lbs from BMS and Mr. Freeze.  

[cherokeescot]

Unlucky Spider in first two races. Elk, Ship It walked out the gate and trailed all the way round until finishing well..One for the notebook.

[spiderjohn]

did sub the 9 for 11 in 2nd exacta box, and unfortunately keyed 4 and 9 in 2nd tri
so keeping my head above water for now

no value in 3rd, so going p3 pw 1-2-4/3-6-8-9/2-4-5-8-11

Bruno is a necessity imo--good stuff!

[gam]

Just starting to follow and checked early results. Ozzy, hope you had a few bucks on Salty as Can Be.

[spiderjohn]

Was rolling along through the first half of today, then decided to base the end of the day around Skydiver and #5 in the 13th. Two 2nds didn’t work, and blew the 2-day gimmicks.
Ended up a loser as usual

On to tomorrow!

Saving in derby with Max Player and NY Traffic—might put the Bafferts on top of them + Tiz also

Good luck!