UK- Goodwood 7/29

[tenfurlongs]

GOING: GOOD (GoingStick: 6.9) (Rail Movements: 1.10, 2.15, 3.15 & 4.20 +6yds and 1.45 +12yds) (Partly cloudy)

Goodwood 8:10- 1m2f EBF Fillies' Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) (0-105)  field of 8.

#3- Be More (5-1) has progressed very smoothly through her nine races, with four wins, including in her first attempt at 10F last out at Sandown. Not overly penalized in the ratings after last win. #8- Waliyak (7-2) acquitted herself very nicely on 3yo debut in the Sandringham S. at Royal Ascot, nabbing second behind Onassis, who has since taken down a Listed race in France. Expecting a forward move today.

EX- 3,8/1,3,4,7,8  Result- 7,8,2  Chamade ($43.40) had run close to Berlin Tango and Franconia in her two 2020 starts, so the clues were there, and she was favorably weighted.

Goodwood 8:45- 2m4½f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) (0-105)  field of 16.

No standout for me in this group, although #10- True Destiny (5-1) appears to be on a progressive arc since last season. Third in the Marsh Cup ten days ago at Newbury, now stretches out (lol) to 20.5F and is very favorably weighted, it would seem. #4- Couer De Lion (5-1) ran a visually impressive race last time to take the Ascot S. at Royal Ascot, held up towards the rear and sweeping to the front inside the final furlong. Gets Thore Hammer-Hansen (5lb. bug) in the saddle once again.

EX- 4,10/1,4,5,7,10,15  Result- 8,6,7  Just Hubert ($46.60) out-gamed them all to collar longtime leader Rochester House in the shadow of the wire. That gives him a career mark of 14/5-0-1 on grass. A very useful runner. I'll note that the average winning distance of his sire/damsire is 11.0/11.2 so he was more than well suited to today's distance...lol.  

TW

[tenfurlongs]

TW

[tenfurlongs]

Goodwood 9:15- 1m4f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) (0-105)  field of 11.

The manner in which #6- Carlos Felix (6-1) won its last race, first time at 12f over a quality field including Celestran, suggests that he has found his niche. Trainer Simcock cautiously moves him forward today and I'm hoping for another impressive effort. #4- Mambo Nights (7-1) has also been progressive in six career races, with two wins in as many starts this season. Gets tested for class today but should be up to the task under a favorable rating.

EX- 4,6/2,3,4,6,7  Result- 4,10,3  Mambo Nights ($14.60) was clearly best despite being slowly into stride and then a bit rank in the early stages. I couldn't use the Haggas-trained runner up who was taking a big class hike off two wins in 2020, because, well, I'm an idiot. Had third placer Sounds of Cannons (23-1) had a bit more punch, I was looking at a nice payday.

Goodwood 9:45- 5f Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo)  field of 10.

Eight colts and two fillies contest a sharp five furlong test. #7- Significantly (3-1) has three seconds for as many tries, can take down top honors with an alert beginning. #9- Sardinia Sunset (4-1) won a Listed event at York following a good fourth to Campanelle at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary (GII) in what has proven to be a reliable yardstick race this season.

EX- 7,9/3,5,7,9  Result- 8,2,5  Apparently every citizen in Ireland sent in their savings on Steel Bull ($5.60) who broke his maiden at first asking a week ago at Naas. I'm going to look for that replay to see what they saw.

Goodwood 10:15- 1m Sussex Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)  field of 7.

The highlight of the Goodwood summer meet. Quality field top to bottom, a win from anyone but Vatican City would not be a surprise. #2- Mohaather (5-2) was beaten 4 3/4 lengths by Circus Maximus at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne S. (GI), but returned to dominate the GII Summer Mile at Ascot while his conqueror has remained idle. #4- Kameko (7-2) found 12F to be too far last time, but with that stamina test under his belt the return to a mile could have him set up perfectly. It almost looks like the O'Brien three could be their own worst enemies in here, with similar running styles, but I won't question the man. Personal rooting interest for the undefeated #5- Siskin (2-1) whose second dam is also the third dam to our Heliabel (the AW surprise).

EX- 2,4/All  Result- 2,1,5  Exacta $43.00  Mohaather ($7.80) made the last move the winning move in a thrilling renewal of the Sussex. He didn't have a clear run entering the final 2 but got to the outside and finished determinedly for the victory over hard luck Circus Maximus, now second in this race two years running. Oisin Murphy rode Kameko poorly IMO. He had a ton of horse and no place to go, trapped along the rail behind Circus Maximus and hemmed in by Vatican City, who seemed to helping his stablemate before folding, even impeding Mohaather as he backed up. The best horse probably won, although with Kameko in jail for two furlongs we'll never know.

Bet: $94.00  Returned: $43.00  Loss: <-51.00>

Good luck if you are playing today!

TW

[5wide]

Good luck Today TW,



1.45 - Smart Champion EW, freshened and back up in trip and should appreciate the conditions.

[5wide]

3.15 Sussex Stakes, ex box Kameko, Circus Maximus, Siskin. Win on Kameko, back to a mile and powers home.

[tenfurlongs]

Best of luck 5w! This should be one of the better races of the year.

TW

[tenfurlongs]

I'm adding some win/place money on San Donato, who is being criminally dismissed at 41-1 currently.

TW

[cherokeescot]

I think the commentator had money on San Donato too by the sound of things !

[tenfurlongs]

San Donato moved just a bit too early, I think. I'd bet him back next time against lesser, however.

TW

[spiderjohn]

Exciting race—- didn’t understand the tactics with SISKIN, and KAMEKO was extremely unlucky trapped on the rail late. Nice trip and ride on the short-priced winner!

I liked CIRCUS MAXIMUS, and thought that he ran a big one, and fortunately did not wager again today.

Nice write-ups 10 f—makes watching much more enjoyable.

[cherokeescot]

That’s a different commentator from the one I saw live (the guy who identifies every silk worn by each horse during the race) who was much more excited about San Donato and didn’t really mention Kameko’s problems .

[1hooper]

Ger Lyons,trainer of Siskin.

"There will be no decisions made, but he probably has Breeders' Cup written all over him.”