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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 5:55:45 GMT -5
Newmarket: GOING- GOOD TO SOFT (GoingStick: Overall 6.5, Stands' side 6.7, Centre 6.3, Far side 6.5) (Watered) (Showers)
York: GOING- GOOD TO SOFT (GoingStick: Overall 6.9; Home Straight: Far side 6.5, Centre 6.6, Stand side 6.5) (Showers)
Newmarket 7:45- 6f (July course) Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) (0-105) 4,6 are non-runners. Field of 10.
#2- Highland Dress (5-1) lightly-raced 4yo won like a good one on debut last year but went to the bench after only three starts. Returned with two fine AW races in March, then won over C&D before a close-up finish in the Wokingham S. at Royal Ascot. Improvement expected again today. #11- Breath of Air (8-1) has really stepped forward this season after an in-and-out 3yo campaign. Fine comeback effort at Newbury defeating Blue Mist, then a good fourth to Arigato going 7F on the Rowley mile here. Cuts back in distance for Hills/Buick/Abdullah (Juddmonte) and should be a major player.
EX- 2,11/2,3,8,9,11 Result- 9,2,3 Highland Dress took charge entering the final furlong, but was run down rather easily by Chairmanoftheboard ($14.00). Breath of Air had the lead and faded, perhaps 6F is too sharp for him.
York 7:55- 1m4f Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+) (0-90) 2 is a non-runner. Field of 11.
Wide open Class 3 handicap going 12 furlongs seems ripe for some good payouts. #3- Cockalorum (12-1) drops back from stakes company and stretches out from his customary ten panels today. Ran a few solid races last season including a close second here in October. #4- Dark Lochnagar (12-1) ran was the runner-up in two excellent efforts last term, including a 12F race behind Elysian Flame, who would be even-money in this field. Ten furlong comebacker at Ayr sets him up nicely for today.
EX- 3,4/1,3,4,6,8,12 Result- 11,6,1 Winner Mr. Carpenter ($222.80!!) was coming off a long layoff, with no previous form or experience at the distance. Nice putover by the connections.
more to follow...
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 6:19:43 GMT -5
Newmarket 8:15- 1m (July) Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+) (0-93) 1,8 are non-runners. Field of 6.
Destined to be some even shorter prices now with the scratches. #4 Almufti (5-2) was much improved on seasonal return, running a good fourth behind Sir Busker at Royal Ascot. Ryan Moore takes the call from Hugo Palmer today. #5- Maydanny (2-1) expensive ($1.87M) son of Dubawi has progressed smoothly in four career starts. Finished two lengths behind Almufti at Ascot, but is likely to have more to give and could be odds-on in here.
EX- 4,5/2,3,4,5 Result- 3,6,7 Maydanny ran up the track and Almufti faded to fourth at the wire. Bear Force One ($14.80) looked like a stakes horse today, dropping down a class and stretching out to a mile. William Buick taking the mount should have offered a clue, missed that.
York 8:30- 1m2½f Handicap (Div I) (Class 4) (4yo+) (0-85) 1 is a non-runner. Field of ten.
#5- Cape Cavalli (5-2) was very consistent as a 3yo and continued his progression on reappearance with a good second on the Tapeta at Newcastle. Career record 9/1-5-2. #7- Daawy (15-1) is interesting to me. He had a fine, multi-win season as a 4yo, but was clearly off physically the following year with only three starts, last seen in July. Two races this year say he's returning to form, including a nice third to Nicholas T in a Class 2 last time. Expecting his best today.
EX- 5,7/4,5,6,7,9 Result- 5,6,4 Exacta $23.40 Cape Cavalli ($4.80) is going places, as his impressively easy win today will attest. At the very least he can take on some of the rich Heritage Handicaps later this season. Daawy was held up in the rear but made a mild run to finish mid-pack. I'll follow him as I don't think he's spent yet.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 6:31:29 GMT -5
Newmarket 8:50- 1m (July) Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) Field of 8.
#3- Lord Campari (2-1) won strongly going a mile at Newbury in his second start. Second and third place finishers both won their next starts. Sky could be the limit for this son of Kingman. #4- Magical Morning (4-1) is two-for-two going a mile, steps up to stakes company without partner Dettori, who rides for Gosden at York today. Adam Kirby gets a rare mount for this yard and will try to make the most of it.
EX- 3,4/1,3,4,6,7 Result- 1,5,6 Al Suhail ($7.00) destroyed the field for Godolphin/Appleby/Buick and will be seen in Group company henceforth.
York 9:05- 5f EBF Marygate Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) 1,2,4 are non-runners. Field of 6.
Scratches have decimated this race. #9- Sardinia Sunset was always going to be the favorite but her task is much easier now. Finished second to Sacred in initial outing, then a fine fourth behind Wesley Ward/Stonestreet runner Campanelle in the Queen Mary (GII) at Royal Ascot. Only needs to handle the ground.
EX- 9/6,7 Result- 9,5,3 Sardinia Sunset ($3.20) was incredibly rank and visibly upset going down to the gate, but once the stall door opened he settled in behind horses and emerged with a workmanlike victory. Something to keep an eye on going forward though.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 6:46:04 GMT -5
Newmarket 9:25- 1m5f (July) Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) 6 is a non-runner. Field of 7.
#2- Al Dabaran (3-1) Godolphin colt has done little wrong in five starts. Listed-winner at Ascot and twice GIII-placed in France last year. Returned with a distant third to Ballydoyle buzzsaw Santiago in the Queen's Vase (GII) at Royal Ascot, indicating his affinity for this kind of distance. #1- Al Aasy (3-1) won by ten here last time, going just a bit shorter. #4- Dawn Rising (5-2) speaking of Tabor, et al., O'Brien the elder sends this 12 length last out maiden winner down to have a go at it. Son of Galileo should probably be the favorite. Interesting race to watch, if nothing else.
TRI- 2/1,4/1,4,5,7 Result- 1,4,2 Al Aasy ($6.40) is the real deal, putting a drubbing on the rest of them. Dawn Rising will only improve after this run.
York 9:40- 1m2½f Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) 4,5 are non-runners. Field of 7.
Many interesting angles in this race. I ended up on #3- Dubai Love (6-1) for Godolphin/bin Suroor/Murphy. Ran very well on the dirt course at Meydan this winter, then returned to turf with a close-up third to Onassis in the Sandringham S. at Royal Ascot.
EX- 3/7,8,9 Result- 9,1,8 Rose of Kildare's ($12.80) class came to the fore as she appeared to relish the step up in distance and won her third GIII event.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 8:02:40 GMT -5
Newmarket 10:00- 6f (July) July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (2yo) 4 is a non-runner. Field of 9.
2yo Royal Ascot runners and some maiden winners clash in this Group II affair. #5- Qaader (5-2) broke his maiden in style by four, then was a good second behind 150-1 Nando Parrado in the Coventry S. (GII) at Ascot. Repeat of that race probably wins this. #8- Tactical (3-1) won the Windsor Castle S. for the building owner, HM The Queen, going 5F at Royal Ascot. William Buick picks up the mount today. My boy Choritzo (50-1) was beaten 9+ lengths in the Coventry, not so bad, and I'm sticking with him until I run out of road.
EX- 5,8/5,6,8,9,10 PL- 1 Result- 8,10,2 Exacta $39.00 Royal silks cross the line in front as Tactical ($6.80) followed up his Windsor Castle S. victory with a solid GII win for The Queen. I'm on Choritzo no matter what, although today wasn't very inspiring. Heavy rain arrived for the race, that could change things going forward, so maybe tread lightly.
York 10:15- 1m2½f Dante Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo) Field of 6.
I'm going to try to beat likely favorite #4- Highest Ground (Even) here. He's two-for-two but I'm not sure that he's beaten very much. #2- Cormorant (7-1) won the GIII Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time over Russian Emperor, can take another step forward today. #5- Juan Elcano (5-1) was twice GII-placed as a 2yo. Only beaten four lengths in the 1000 Guineas, then fourth to Russian Emperor at Royal Ascot. Too early to give up on this son of Frankel.
EX- 2,5/2,4,5,6 Result- 6,4,5 Mild upset as Thunderous ($9.20) outlasts them all to the wire, improving his record to four wins in five starts. Highest Ground never looked like the winner although he stayed on well. Juan Elcano made a sustained run from the back to edge Cormorant for third. Nice race for a six horse field.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 8:49:15 GMT -5
Newmarket 10:35- 6f (July) (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo) (0-105) 6,9,17 are non-runners. Field of 17.
Huge field in this rich Heritage Handicap for 3yo, so a mighty swing is required. #8- Lexington Dash (5-1) has progressed smoothly in his five starts, with two facile victories over C&D this year, but he may not be the favorite or even second choice. #19- Dancin Inthestreet (9-2) is a progressive filly who ran third behind rising star sprinter Art Power at Royal Ascot. She gets in light with three pound bug aboard (Kiaran Fallon's son Cieren) on the stretchout to six panels. #2- Troubador (15-1) has been ultra-consistent in ten starts for top sprint trainer Dods, may get lost in the wagering. #3- Maraas (6-1) has done little wrong in three starts, beat Troubador last time by a length-and-a-half but there's a five pound shift in that one's favor today. Still a big factor in this.
EX- 2,8,19/2,3,8,12,14,19 Saver EX- 3/2,8,12,14,19 Result- 13,14,19 Progressive Rating ($139.80!!) fires off the long layoff, had two AW wins in a row before going to the bench.
York 10:45- 1m2½f Handicap (Div II) (Class 4) (4yo+) (0-85) Field of 10.
#3- Rhythmic Intent (5-1) improved at the end of his 3yo season, return run was a fine second behind repeat winner Gin Palace at Newbury going a mile. Should be sharp for this run. Oisin Murphy takes the call today. #4- Desert Caravan (3-1) has two wins and a fourth to Mordred (second to Cape Cavalli earlier today at York), all on the AW surfaces. Taken to improve once again today for Haggas/Doyle /HM The Queen at the controls.
EX- 3,4/1,5,7 Result- 3,7,5 Exacta $52.20 Rhythmic Intent ($5.40) did indeed run to his promise from last time, dispatching his rivals easily. I was pleading for Scottish Summit (45-1) to get up for second, couldn't quite get there but he's a bet back, albeit now at a much lower price.
TW
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
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Post by 5wide on Jul 9, 2020 9:15:38 GMT -5
Newmarket 10.35, taking a chance on Progressive Rating ew , add the 19 and the 2 for the forecast box
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 9:20:45 GMT -5
Good luck to us 5wide! No matter the result, it is going to pay out well. I love playing these races!
TW
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
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Post by 5wide on Jul 9, 2020 9:36:13 GMT -5
Good luck to us 5wide! No matter the result, it is going to pay out well. I love playing these races!
TW
YES, Good luck to us . |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 9:40:16 GMT -5
5wide crushes it!! That's some fine handicapping right there. 68-1!!! Well done.
TW
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
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Post by 5wide on Jul 9, 2020 10:01:22 GMT -5
Thanks TF, its all luck, I happened to read Matt Brocklebank's Value bet article and he picked him. Better lucky than smart.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 10:06:06 GMT -5
Newmarket 11:10- 1m4f (July) Princess Of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) 6 is a non-runner. Field of 7.
#8- Enbihaar (2-1) should be the deserving favorite in here with multiple GII wins on her resume, but I'll also use #7- Dame Malliot (10-1) lightly-raced 4yo filly who won a GII in France over heavy ground before finishing well behind Enbihaar at Doncaster. Maybe the ground gets her home first.
EX- 7,8/1,2,5,7,8 Result- 7,2,5 Exacta $116.00 Fantastic ride by Hollie Doyle, seizing the lead mid-race on Dame Maillot ($19.20), then relinquishing it inside the two, before seeing out the trip better than the rest over what looked to be very testing ground with divots flying all around. Favored Enbihaar sat too far back for the pace/conditions, was moving best of all late but ran out of real estate to be fourth.
York 12:20- 1m Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) (0-100) 1,7,13 are non-runners. Field of 14.
Another large field, quality handicap. Taking a swing. #8- Muraad (10-1) has done little wrong in six starts, last race on reappearance was his best yet, just two lengths behind the promising Solid Stone. If he handles the ground he could be right there. #11- Irreverent (12-1) was very progressive as a 3yo, finishing his season with a close fourth in a Class 2 at Ayr. Comeback at Newcastle on the AW saw him far behind much better foes, the top three of whom have all won their next starts. Hoping for some key race magic.
EX- 8,11/2,3,4,8,11 Result- 3,8,16 Orbaan ($28.40) blasted from out of the pack to take the finale over longtime leader Muraad. Irreverent moved into contention late but couldn't see out the trip.
TW
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,382
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Post by 5wide on Jul 9, 2020 10:28:56 GMT -5
Well done ! nice ex at Newmarket 11.10 Ten F
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 11:01:49 GMT -5
Thanks! Your day was already made, and I'm finally back in the black with one to go.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2020 11:54:07 GMT -5
Number of Bets 14
Win Percentage 28.57% Wagered $220.00
Payoff $230.60
Profit/Loss $10.60
Grinding out a profit, just missed a big day twice.
Tomorrow at Newmarket:
9:25- Dutchess of Cambridge Stakes (GII) 2yo fillies 6F, field of 10.
10:00- Heritage Handicap 4up 1 3/4 mi., field of 17.
10:35- Heritage Handicap 3yo 1 1/4 mi., field of 13.
11:10- Falmouth Stakes (GI) 3up f&m 1 mi., field of 7.
TW
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