tbpicks
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Post by tbpicks on Jul 5, 2020 9:01:23 GMT -5
All of you talking shit it's alright by me I know you can't pick 43 races 7/4 and win 72% of them including 38-1 one shot and Exa with 20-1 / 23-1 ...
(Losers talk shit ) handicappers use information to their advantage
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BEL
R1/1-8-3-2
R8/8-4-7-2
ELP
R1/1-6-5-4
R3/3-4-1-2
R5/1-4-3-5
R7/4-1-6-3
GP
R3/5-1-6-4
R6/6-3-1-4
R9/7-5-6-4
LS
R3/4-2-6-5
Los Ala (TB)
R2/5-6-1-7
R5/3-1-4-2
R8/10-5-3-7
MTH
R6/5-4-7-3
R8/6-2-8-7
MNR
R8/2-1-7-8
R9/8-9-2-4
PLN
R2/5-4-6-1
R3/2-6-4-3
R5/6-1-4-2
R6/6-7-5-4
R8/4-7-8-1
PRM
R5/6-5-2-7
R6/10-7-11-5
R11/2-7-6-5
WO
R2/9-6-2-10
R5/2-3-10-7
--------
7/4/20 winners inside Top-4
43 races
Win. 72%
Exa. 46.5%
Tri. 23.2%
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Post by quickcall on Jul 5, 2020 9:20:50 GMT -5
Who left the door open?
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Badactor
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Post by Badactor on Jul 5, 2020 9:25:32 GMT -5
The best part of your post
is the beginning
when you use your words...
I like that part.
More of that, please.
Strings of numbers are useless.
Opinions, analysis and discussion
is what makes this forum different
from other horse racing websites.
Numbers, numbers, numbers, mean nothing.
Also, a word of advice...
I guarantee it is impossible
to beat this game by playing
the number of tracks and races
you have listed above. Impossible.
Try focusing on fewer races
and offer up an opinion or two
regarding your selections... Let's talk!
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Jul 5, 2020 10:27:32 GMT -5
A Millenial with no sense of humor.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 5, 2020 10:59:16 GMT -5
Thoropicks,
What Badactor said is spot on. If you post selections here and they are just an endless string of numbers, what reaction do you expect from others? Would you think that we will check out the result of every single race? Who has the time to do that? Too long, didn't read...I get that a lot, I'm sure, when I post selections about European racing. Many here have little to no interest in it. But by including some commentary about the field, the track, why I've chosen my particular contenders, I hope that I'm at least offering an informative/readable summary in one paragraph. Don't want to look at it, fine, move along. I'm not offended.
I get that you are trying to attract folks to your website/potential new site. I'm just saying, in my opinion, the way that you are trying to do it will be unsuccessful if you just post a string of numbers with no "meat on the bones." Does that make sense to you? Please participate here, we like new members and their ideas. We all benefit from hearing other handicappers thoughts. Maybe narrow your focus to four-eight races per day, give a one sentence explanation as to your selections. I'd read that and check out your plays.
Or you can tell me I'm a loser, and go pound salt  . I'm not sure that will have the desired result for you. Heed my suggestions, or not. Just trying to help you out in navigating a new website. Have a winning day!
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 5, 2020 16:21:09 GMT -5
"...Would you think that we will check out the result of every single race? Who has the time to do that?..."
So I decided to look deeper into your numbers from 7/4. You actually had 11 triples, not 10, so 26% strike rate. The 72% winners sounds great but many of these races had fields of 5,6 and 7 horses so with any kind of elimination handicapping that % should be easily attainable by picking four horses. Let's look at the $$$, because that is where the rubber meets the road.
% of profitable win bets= 23% % of profitable exacta bets= 21% % of profitable triple bets= 21%
Win bet profit or loss= <-33.90> Exacta bet profit or loss= +120.65 Triple bet profit or loss= +474.35
One would have wagered $1118.00 ($2 win x 4/$1 exa x 12/$0.50 triple x 6) to return $1679.10, or a 66% return for the day. I'd take that daily.
The two races that accounted for your big day were LRL R2 ($43 + $251.80 + $372.50) and WO R3 ($78.80 + $132.25 + $149.60). Without them the returns would be deep in the red.
Also, I had to laugh, you actually played the Arabian race  at DEL, where you got hosed on the payouts (win $2.60/exa $3.80/tri $3.40). I see the regular jockey colony rides them. I didn't realize that (or maybe it's just a pandemic thing.)
So, my thought would be, can this methodology consistently produce positive returns by hitting two big payouts every day, or will regression to the mean snuff out gains like this? One hot day does not a summer make. I'd consider tossing the win bets entirely and just concentrate on exactas and triples, maybe.
TW
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tc
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Post by tc on Jul 5, 2020 18:26:00 GMT -5
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Badactor
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Post by Badactor on Jul 5, 2020 18:52:28 GMT -5
You guys are Gangsters! 
Do you paint houses? Because those are killer posts. Good stuff. Always lots to learn. Thank you!
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tbpicks
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Post by tbpicks on Jul 5, 2020 21:04:52 GMT -5
I thank you all for your comments but hey I made today $250 in sale today before 10.30 am that's $10 per sale 25 people y because they want a sheet with the best races to bet I only presents the information it's up to you on what races to bet...
So like I said thank you all if you would like the sheet contact me with the private message
James
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tbpicks
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Post by tbpicks on Jul 6, 2020 9:00:24 GMT -5
Results
BEL
R1/1-8-3-2>>>7-6-1
R8/8-4-7-2>>>8-72
ELP
R1/1-6-5-4>>>5-6-x
R3/3-4-1-2>>>4-6-1
R5/1-4-3-5>>>1-4-5
R7/4-1-6-3>>>4-5-3
GP
R3/5-1-6-4>>>2-4-5
R6/6-3-1-4>>>1-5-7
R9/7-5-6-4>>>4-6-7
LS
R3/4-2-6-5. No racing
Los Ala (TB)
R2/5-6-1-7>>>5-1-6
R5/3-1-4-2>>>3-1-4
R8/10-5-3-7>>>10-5-9
MTH
R6/5-4-7-3>>>7-8-4
R8/6-2-8-7>>>8-9-6
MNR
R8/2-1-7-8>>>1-5-4
R9/8-9-2-4>>>3-7-4
PLN
R2/5-4-6-1>>>6-2-4
R3/2-6-4-3>>>5-2-3
R5/6-1-4-2>>>5-6-1
R6/6-7-5-4>>>5-2-6
R8/4-7-8-1>>>1-2-3
PRM
R5/6-5-2-7>>>4-7-5
R6/10-7-11-5>>>10-3-5
R11/2-7-6-5>>>6-7-4
WO
R2/9-6-2-10>>>10-6-2
R5/2-3-10-7>>>4-3-1
7/4/20 winners inside Top-4
26 races
Win. 73.%
Exa. 26%
Tri. 23%
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 6, 2020 9:20:03 GMT -5
7/5 selections and results:
BEL R1/1-8-3-2 result- $0.00 (6 horse field)
R8/8-4-7-2 result- $3.40 (win) + $3.80 (exa) + $3.55 (tri) (6 horse field)
ELP R1/1-6-5-4 result- $6.20 (win) + $8.20 (exa) (4 horse field)
R3/3-4-1-2 result- $5.20 (win) (6 horse field)
R5/1-4-3-5 result- $6.40 (win) + $12.50 (exa) + $21.20 (tri) (5 horse field)
R7/4-1-6-3 result- $9.80 (win) (7 horse field)
GP R3/5-1-6-4 result- $0.00 (5 horse field)
R6/6-3-1-4 result- $3.60 (win) (6 horse field)
R9/7-5-6-4 result- $3.80 (win) + $4.40 (exa) + $9.25 (tri) (7 horse field)
LS R3/4-2-6-5 Cancelled Los Ala (TB) R2/5-6-1-7 result- $5.40 (win) + $6.90 (exa) + $15.30 (tri) (7 horse field)
R5/3-1-4-2 result- $6.40 (win) + $19.00 (exa) + $33.00 (tri) (6 horse field)
R8/10-5-3-7 www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/LRC070520USA8-EQB.htmlresult- $3.00 (win) + $4.90 (exa) (10 horse field)
MTH R6/5-4-7-3 result- $3.80 (win) (7 horse field)
R8/6-2-8-7 result- $4.80 (win) (9 horse field)
MNR R8/2-1-7-8 result- $5.40 (win) (8 horse field)
R9/8-9-2-4 result- $0.00 (8 horse field)
PLN R2/5-4-6-1 result- $15.00 (win) (7 horse field)
R3/2-6-4-3 result- $0.00 (6 horse field)
R5/6-1-4-2 result- $0.00 (5 horse field)
R6/6-7-5-4 result- $6.20 (win) (9 horse field)
R8/4-7-8-1 result- $17.80 (win) (8 horse field)
PRM R5/6-5-2-7 result- $0.00 (6 horse field)
R6/10-7-11-5 result- $4.80 (win) (10 horse field)
R11/2-7-6-5 result- $8.60 (win) + $87.80 (exa) (8 horse field)
WO R2/9-6-2-10 result- $5.70 (win) + $8.15 (exa) + $27.00 (tri) (10 horse field)
R5/2-3-10-7 result- $0.00 (8 horse field)
26 races.
$2 win x 4 horses x 26 races = $208
$1 exabox x 4 horses x 26 races = $312
$0.50 triplebox x 4 horses x 26 races = $156
total wager amount = $676
19 wins = 73% //returns = $125.30
9 exactas = 35% //returns = $155.65
6 triples = 23% //returns = $109.30
total returns = $390.25
Profit/<Loss> for the day = <- 285.75>
Tough day.
TW
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Badactor
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Post by Badactor on Jul 6, 2020 11:04:09 GMT -5
Less the $250 sold in tip sheets...
so really, only a $35.75 loss for the day.
First, anybody playing nearly $700 a day
is not likely to be buying $10 tip sheets.
But good for you for carving out a little niche business.
What was it PT Barnum said?
Second, I don't believe you recognized the honor
being afforded you by TC and 10 furlongs...
These gentlemen are champion handicappers.
I place great value in their opinions. So should you.
Keep posting, words please, and let's learn together.
Third, if you're selecting 4 horses per race
in 5 and 6 horse fields and missing the winner...
you may need to tweak your system a bit.
And finally, TW...
loved you in 3 days of the Condor.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 6, 2020 11:37:50 GMT -5
The longer version for context. Max von Sydow was brilliant as Joubert. Sydney Pollack directed this, nice touch for ambient sound vs. spotted score. A fine film with such an interesting title.
TW
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.jpg)
. I'm not sure that will have the desired result for you. Heed my suggestions, or not. Just trying to help you out in navigating a new website. Have a winning day!
at DEL, where you got hosed on the payouts (win $2.60/exa $3.80/tri $3.40). I see the regular jockey colony rides them. I didn't realize that (or maybe it's just a pandemic thing.)
